Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

Share this Blog
24
+

Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 219 - 169

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89Blog Index

Good Afternoon.


8-10 Day 500MB Mean

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
Wow, looking at my first track of Emily.. I really nailed this one down.. In terms of track that is.

,congrats!!,almost the same track as the nhc had it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Changed their mind on location

AL 05 2011080518 BEST 0 230N 780W 30 1011 WV


Can't remember where the last fix was... did they move it west?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Changed their mind on location

AL 05 2011080518 BEST 0 230N 780W 30 1011 WV


Actually that makes alot more sense based on the satellite obs.. Look at the V signature.. Classic looking for a developing system.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Changed their mind on location

AL 05 2011080518 BEST 0 230N 780W 30 1011 WV


That puts it much closer to the spin just north of Cuba.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vero1:
193. MississippiWx 6:22 PM

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N76W JUST OFF THE COAST
OF CUBA ON THE BAHAMAS SIDE. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE
REMNANT OF EMILY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
ACROSS CUBA TO CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN...AND THEN TO
15N81W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.


Those coordinates do not go hand in hand with the western area of vorticity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Changed their mind on location

AL 05 2011080518 BEST 0 230N 780W 30 1011 WV
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well everyone have a nice weekend. Inclosing we may need a new acronym for these systems that seem to run by the greater Antilles. My suggestion would be CELLCS or constantly ejecting low level circulation systems.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Saying that anything is clearly dominant right now is incorrect. There is nothing clearly dominant about a broad area of low pressure.


Well the center is pretty darn clear to me, if its not clear to everyone then I apologize, but I'm pointing it so its easier to follow where the whole spin is moving at the moment. That way its easier to track to see if it keeps moving WNW or if it begins to turn north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What's next?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, looking at my first track of Emily.. I really nailed this one down.. In terms of track that is.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
loop


Looks like the shear just cuts it when it gets too high.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rod2635:


And if you had just awakened from a 30 day sleep and this was the very first thing you saw, what would you say, tropically and objectively speaking.
i would say hmmmmmmmmmmm, interesting
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5220
205. Vero1
193. MississippiWx 6:22 PM

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N76W JUST OFF THE COAST
OF CUBA ON THE BAHAMAS SIDE. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE
REMNANT OF EMILY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
ACROSS CUBA TO CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN...AND THEN TO
15N81W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:
The dominant low is clearly on the north coast of Central Cuba, surface obs and satellite support this. Any other spins are just meso-lows, Such as the one in the Bahamas, which no longer has any spin with it on the most recent satellite images. Convection is beginning to build a bit on the east side of vort MAX. But remember, the remnant low has shear over it, and its very shallow. Soundings and satellite indicate high tropical moisture with the remnant low, but most of it is shallow, dry air aloft exists above the high moisture. So this remnant low has a lot going against it to redevelop, it still could, but it seems still like it would take some time.

Now, as far as movement goes, current movement is WNW which would put it in the direction of the keys/southeastern gulf.

Computer models and forecasters are still calling for it to turn north, so with so much agreement for it do so, it wouldn't be wise to say it won't. However at the same time, we shouldn't pretend it is turning north towards the northern Bahamas till it actually does so.

My advice is to keep a close watch on this little fella if you live in Central and South Florida. Not because its a threat, but it will determine if above average or below average rain fall coverage will come in the next few days.

The fact is, if the remnant low continues WNW, it will wrap high moisture over Florida, leading to numerous showers and thunderstorms especially with daytime heating towards the western side of the State. But if it does turn north like it is being forecast to. Below normal coverage will temporarily be in place with a light northerly flow.

We shall see.


Saying that anything is clearly dominant right now is incorrect. There is nothing clearly dominant about a broad area of low pressure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:
Still a small portion of dry air around, dont expect it to stay long though.


This is upper dry air, atmospheric sounding show dry aloft and high tropical moisture in the lower half of the atmosphere in the region where the remnants of Emily is. Still this upper dry air shows how shallow the remnant low is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Also note that the mid level is more stacked with the spin at ne, but that can change when a definitive llc form. Sheer continue lowering.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


What's next?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
are we tracking the llc sw of andros tia


That's the one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gordydunnot:
Well the NHC has a large Red circle which tells me they agree with most of the post here. Redevelopment is likely, more uncertain as to where. I notice through buoy observations that pressures around the Keys and S. Fl. are about 10mb lower than they are to the north and east of the remnants.
hmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5220
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127904
Quoting DSIjeff:
79W, 23N .. ROUGHLY.

That is the spin somewhat apparent to me. I notice low clouds just off shore Cuba headed east into the south side of the circulation, or what may be the circulation. And some t-storms on the ne side.

Link
very interesting
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5220
196. 7544
are we tracking the llc sw of andros tia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AL 05 2011080518 BEST 0 229N 771W 30 1011 WV



AL 05 2011080518 BEST 0 230N 780W 30 1011 WV
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Yeah, and as you can see it is beginning to pull convection from the east and from Cuba as well. Could get interesting here in the next 12 hours or so


I agree - this looks like the BAMD model. This LLC is moving WNW toward Fl Keys/S FL. With anticipated hard left turn it could stay over FL for a while and be a major rain maker. One only hopes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Could they form 2 tropical systems.


No, both areas of vort are associated with the same trof of low pressure. A dominant area will eventually take over if Emily is to regenerate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I knew it wouldn't go straight Northwest. Expect the remnants to head closer to Florida before the recurve.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The dominant low is clearly on the north coast of Central Cuba, surface obs and satellite support this. Any other spins are just meso-lows, Such as the one in the Bahamas, which no longer has any spin with it on the most recent satellite images. Convection is beginning to build a bit on the east side of vort MAX. But remember, the remnant low has shear over it, and its very shallow. Soundings and satellite indicate high tropical moisture with the remnant low, but most of it is shallow, dry air aloft exists above the high moisture. So this remnant low has a lot going against it to redevelop, it still could, but it seems still like it would take some time.

Now, as far as movement goes, current movement is WNW which would put it in the direction of the keys/southeastern gulf.

Computer models and forecasters are still calling for it to turn north, so with so much agreement for it do so, it wouldn't be wise to say it won't. However at the same time, we shouldn't pretend it is turning north towards the northern Bahamas till it actually does so.

My advice is to keep a close watch on this little fella if you live in Central and South Florida. Not because its a threat, but it will determine if above average or below average rain fall coverage will come in the next few days.

The fact is, if the remnant low continues WNW, it will wrap high moisture over Florida, leading to numerous showers and thunderstorms especially with daytime heating towards the western side of the State. But if it does turn north like it is being forecast to. Below normal coverage will temporarily be in place with a light northerly flow.

We shall see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's all so very interesting,with these circulations floating around. I pick the one that is headed towards my predicted landfall of Emily in SW Florida.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5220
Quoting tropicfreak:


The western one near Cuba seems most dominant.


Yeah, and as you can see it is beginning to pull convection from the east and from Cuba as well. Could get interesting here in the next 12 hours or so
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hurricane eugenes waves are showing at the us open of surfing so. calif
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4530
I see... a non-tasked Mission. Since it's close to the US why not ehh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still a small portion of dry air around, dont expect it to stay long though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Trying to determine a dominant center of circulation at this point is probably useless anyway as there is a broad area of turning. It may be that there is more of a compromise between the two eventually.


Could they form 2 tropical systems.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like they'll fly it tomorrow... and then go back to the 6hr. fixes if it develops.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Trying to determine a dominant center of circulation at this point is probably useless anyway as there is a broad area of turning. It may be that there is more of a compromise between the two eventually.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wasn't referring to a particular storm but have noticed over the last several years storms that give everyone the biggest headache in Fl. and the rest of the Gulf are these pesky systems that form around the Bahamas. I believe some people had predicted that troubling storms may form closer to the US than before.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


The western one near Cuba seems most dominant.


I'm on board with that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Observation Time: Friday, 17:45Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 22.8N 74.1W (View map)
Location: 211 miles (340 km) to the WNW (296°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 8,530 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 80° at 14 knots (From the E at ~ 16.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -25°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
D-value: 52 geopotential meters

Optional Data...

Bearing of Echo Center: 90° (Towards the E)
Distance to Echo Center: 30 nautical miles
Orientation of Ellipse: SSE - NNW
Echo Width or Diameter: 10 nautical miles
Length of Major Axis: 30 nautical miles
Character of Echo: Scattered Area
Intensity of Echo: Weak


Another new one to me, does the Optional Data describe a radar signature?


What I have been posting is the Hurricane Hunters going from St. Croix to home (I think). They send Routine Obs (such as the one above) and they have released a few dropsondes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Dropsonde

Splash Location: 23.33N 75.43W
Splash Time: 17:24Z


1014mb (Surface) 155° (from the SSE) 30 knots (35 mph)


Definitely interesting... I also know, based on satellite imagery, there are thunderstorms in that vicinity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cwf1069:
And again ex-Emily w/ two different center of circulation. Which one will be eject. Looks like the north one.


The western one near Cuba seems most dominant.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Dropsonde

Splash Location: 23.33N 75.43W
Splash Time: 17:24Z


1014mb (Surface) 155° (from the SSE) 30 knots (35 mph)


Is the G-IV doing a run now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And again ex-Emily w/ two different center of circulation. Which one will be eject. Looks like the north one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
172. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2011

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N76W JUST OFF THE COAST
OF CUBA ON THE BAHAMAS SIDE. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE
REMNANT OF EMILY.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
ACROSS CUBA TO CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN...AND THEN TO
15N81W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 24N71W...IN THE
BAHAMAS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W...AND OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM 19N TO 20N
ALONG 76W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH 15 MPH.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
During the past 3 to 6 hours the low level VORT split off and now we have a piece of energy moving WNW/NW and one N.

3 HRs ago:



Now:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I may have spoke too soon. 12z GFS seems to agree with you guys. :-D However, it has dropped redevelopment of the system:

12hrs:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 219 - 169

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
76 °F
Mostly Cloudy