Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Oh. Well if you call it "Hurricane Katrina" I'd get it. I'm only 11.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
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268. DVG
Quoting tea3781:
The CMC had been consistently running this storm up the west coast of Florida. It looks to me like that track could pan out...


It did. Now the UKMET at one point had it going west through the entire time frame. As I understand it, if it becomes more developed, it will get pulled to the north, then NE.

So I guess if it doesn't develope all that soon, it stays on a course west? Then if it gets deeper into the GOM and developes, then what?
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Going out on a limb, they may change it.... but

EMILY, AL, L, , , , , 05, 2011, TD

Also indicated in the raw model data

AL 05 2011080518 03 OFCI 0 230N 780W 30 0 WV
AL 05 2011080518 03 OFCI 12 253N 790W 32 0 TD
AL 05 2011080518 03 OFCI 24 275N 792W 35 0 TD
AL 05 2011080518 03 OFCI 36 295N 784W 37 0 TS
AL 05 2011080518 03 OFCI 48 312N 764W 37 0 TS
AL 05 2011080518 03 OFCI 60 329N 737W 37 0
AL 05 2011080518 03 OFCI 72 346N 704W 37 0 TS
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Quoting FromMy11YearOldSon:



That's so similar. :O What happened to TD12 again?
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Quoting FromMy11YearOldSon:



That's so similar. :O What happened to TD12 again?


Em, its name starts with a K...
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264. 7544
starting to get a little round ball of red now will it grow bigger staytuned looks like dejeve of you know who from 2005
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
I will say that the area of spin just north of the Cuban coastline has become less defined in recent frames. Might be just a temporary thing. I won't go down without a fight. LOL.

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There is a lot of Grasping at Straws going on here.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24799
Quoting reedzone:
Tropical Depression 12 in 2005


Ems 2011


Very eerily similar.
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Quoting reedzone:
Tropical Depression 12 in 2005


Ems 2011



That's so similar. :O What happened to TD12 again?
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Emily was never able to get her act together before because of her overall "weak" circulation which remained pretty tilted and was never able to stack-up before the interaction with Hispanola. I think the same general rule continues to apply until we see "one" healthy closed circulation after/if the sheer drops enough to allow her to properly align. My point is while NHC has given her a high chance and there is model support, we are all seeing multiple swirls and vortices again ejecting out which is basically a repeat of the past. She is trying but I would not expect another TD designation until she is "really" firing on all cylinders and HH can confirm a well defined closed low. Regardless, she has a relatively small window of about 24-72 hours to pull it off and it must be carefully, and frequently checked if conditions warrant, because of her close proximity to the Bahamas and the US.
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Tropical Depression 12 in 2005


Ems 2011
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Quoting 7544:
does all this mean shes trying to make a comback or is on her way redeveloping

will the models shift west with new info tia



Pressures near the low are not dropping yet. It will take some time for it to redevelop.

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Quoting DSIjeff:


looks like that area we noted early this morning is becoming a player.


Sure does... the rest of the day and tonight will be interesting.

That tick west on its position should make for an interesting set of models coming soon.
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Quoting redwagon:

Have you done any analysis as why TC formation is somewhat expected SE of LA, according to the map?

Are any models hinting at any extra-tropical formation?


There's a ridge in the GOM, which is whats expected to block the remnants of Ems from getting in there.. I don't expect any development in the near term.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Looks like you guys may have nailed the more dominant area, though. I've been wrong almost the entire time with Emily, so why should I start getting things right now? :-p I'd love it if the remnants evaporated right now.

We'll see how it plays out.



Hey these weather systems always throw me off too. I made a prediction that this system would never go into the Caribbean and would stay east of the Bahamas and the U.S. That was when it was when it became an invest in the Atlantic.

Right now I prefer to stay as a storm tracker and a storm analyzer rather than a forecaster! LOL I will give thoughts if people ask but I feel kinda guilty going around telling people what I think something will do when I haven't taken any meteorology classes yet, no credentials haha. I figure I'm not a real meteorologist yet but since I want to be one its best not to think I know what system will do when people who know far more are getting paid to do it.
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:


This is deemed an untasked mission.
so is recon still going to fly in that area to check ??? i dont think so
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MJO 15-day forecast:

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249. 7544
does all this mean shes trying to make a comback or is on her way redeveloping

will the models shift west with new info tia
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting reedzone:


Actually the NHC had their track further east, heading NW then WNW.. I just thought it was cool.

Have you done any analysis as why TC formation is somewhat expected SE of LA, according to the map?

Are any models hinting at any extra-tropical formation?
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
Were the HH on Call


This is deemed an untasked mission.
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Quoting DSIjeff:


Chances of it getting on the western side of the peninsula?



LOL...I wouldn't ask me...
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The CMC had been consistently running this storm up the west coast of Florida. It looks to me like that track could pan out...
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Quoting shfr173:
Thunderstorms exploding around LLC North of cuba


I don't know about exploding just looks like typical convection to me. No indication that the remnants are ready to become name again, yet.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Looks like you guys may have nailed the more dominant area, though. I've been wrong almost the entire time with Emily, so why should I start getting things right now? :-p I'd love it if the remnants evaporated right now.

We'll see how it plays out.


Like Don.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Post 195


Got it... thanks... moved it a good bit west... could have implications down the road.
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:
I'll bet the HH were heading back into the area, and thought "Well, since we're in the neighborhood, let's check this out!"
Were the HH on Call
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Looks like you guys may have nailed the more dominant area, though. I've been wrong almost the entire time with Emily, so why should I start getting things right now? :-p I'd love it if the remnants evaporated right now.

We'll see how it plays out.
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I'll bet the HH were heading back into the area, and thought "Well, since we're in the neighborhood, let's check this out!"
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:

This is the JFV imposter right?


Nope, it's actually him. Exchanged some colorful emails with him yesterday.
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Quoting JFV2011:
Oh dear God, it's beginning to wrap around again.

This is the JFV imposter right?
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Quoting whepton3:


Can't remember where the last fix was... did they move it west?


Post 195
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Emily reminds me of a toothache I once had...
Refuses to go away, is not getting better or worse, is frustrating, annoying, and totally unpredictable.
I hope that the rain forecasts for Haiti are wrong though!

In the meantime, heavy rain and some thunder around here this morning with the promise of plenty more to come.
Could be a wet weekend....
No Problem!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24799
Quoting stillwaiting:
,congrats!!,almost the same track as the nhc had it.


Actually the NHC had their track further east, heading NW then WNW.. I just thought it was cool.
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Quoting shfr173:
Thunderstorms exploding around LLC North of cuba
yes they are the 8Pm Two will be intresting, one thing to note is if emily regenerates TS warinings wil be issued on short notice for SE Fla. IMO
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Anyone have a fix on pressure in that area?
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Here is an intersting fact about wunderground.com, it is ranked 480th in the world for web traffic, thats impressive.


Wonder out of how many of them see us argue over hurricanes and GW.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Changed their mind on location

AL 05 2011080518 BEST 0 230N 780W 30 1011 WV


Boy, that is going to throw the models for a huge loop.
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Thunderstorms exploding around LLC North of cuba
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Their track in shown in SHIPS text
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Those coordinates do not go hand in hand with the western area of vorticity.


The coordinates are by the vort center, though. I'm sure they know where to mark the center better than all of us.
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What's next
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Here is an intersting fact about wunderground.com, it is ranked 480th in the world for web traffic, thats impressive.
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Good Afternoon.


8-10 Day 500MB Mean

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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