Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I remembered the birth of Katrina. I was in 5th grade class and we had to talk about current events. I told the class that new tropical storm formed off coast of Florida and it's name was Katrina. Teacher told me exactly where. I went to this huge map of USA and pointed to Daytona Beach area. I told everybody that the storm is just another weak storm going out to sea (not awared about Katrina's new forecast). That night, Katrina became Category 1 and cross Florida. 2 or 3 days later, Katrina became Category 5. That morning, my teacher asked me if this was the same storm that I talked about few days ago. I told her, yes. She was surprised how Katrina moved west compaired to other Florida hurricanes.


Last Category 5 to hit the United States:

Hurricane Andrew - South Florida

173 mph + Gust Recorded as the Eye-Wall came on Shore.
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But the differences between Katrina and Emily is that there is high pressure right now in GOM. There wasn't any high pressure in GOM when Katrina formed. I'm sticking with Florida shave, brief landfall in SC, and curve out as soon as it landfall.
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Quoting BenBIogger:


The JMA develops it as well.

Quoting BenBIogger:


The JMA develops it as well.



And the GFS:



In fact, it looks like there may be another one around the Cape Verde Islands.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Yeah, I'm not sure she's quite there yet, though I suspect she'll regenerate late tomorrow/early sunday.


That indication is for 5PM today.
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It looks like the vortex will pass through the Florida straits tonight.
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Quoting Hurricanes12:


When Katrina was about to cross southern Florida, it had some dry air impeding it's (Katrina's) northern quadrant. Didn't really inhibit development and strength though.


If I am not mistaken, K had a tight circulation as it strengthened east of FL, and practically throughout its entire life cycle (after initial problems)... hence it would not impede RI with a tight circulation.
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Emily is just like my mother-in-law. Just when I think she is dead, somehow she comes back to life!!
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I remembered the birth of Katrina. I was in 5th grade class and we had to talk about current events. I told the class that new tropical storm formed off coast of Florida and it's name was Katrina. Teacher told me exactly where. I went to this huge map of USA and pointed to Daytona Beach area. I told everybody that the storm is just another weak storm going out to sea (not awared about Katrina's new forecast). That night, Katrina became Category 1 and cross Florida. 2 or 3 days later, Katrina became Category 5. That morning, my teacher asked me if this was the same storm that I talked about few days ago. I told her, yes. She was surprised how Katrina moved west compaired to other Florida hurricanes.
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A center at ~23.5 & 79.0. Will be in GOM or on Florida coast within 24 hrs. If redevelopment occurs, might not be much time for warnings.
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310. MTWX
Battle of the highs... I'm gonna call it a similar to Fay kinda track, polishing off Florida's drought (hopefully).
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


What the KATRINA DOOMCASTERS dont understand is that their is a High pressure system in the gulf of mexico... which would steer anything in the gulf back northeast.....







Correct! The ridge should keep Ems on the East Coast of Florida.
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Cuban Radar:

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Quoting SLU:

Thanks, SLU, that map shows what NOAA is hinting about in the TC formation prob map S of Louisiana.

Now, what IS that thing?
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Tis the season! 12z ECMWF 192 begins to develop a tropical cyclone, by the next frame its a TD/TS. This does seem to be the wave the GFS is developing, although its difficult to tell unless you loop the ECMWF, it appears two waves merge together off Africa, kind of like how Colin spun up, then develop.
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Quoting reedzone:
Tropical Depression 12 became Category 1 Hurricane Katrina in less then 24 hours.. I think, somebody correct me if i'm wrong. It all depends on the conditions, which to me, look favorable with 5-10 knots, but some dry air.


"But" is the operative word there. If it didn't have dry air to contend with, I could see more of what you are saying, and RI could be a decent possibility. However, because of dry air, modest intensification would be expected.
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Quoting SLU:


The JMA develops it as well.

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Quoting kshipre1:
reedzone,

do you see this storm going undeveloped, drifting westward then developing and going up the west coast of florida?

almost impractical looking at the trough coming down in a couple of days


I still stick to my first forecast of Ems grazing or just making a brief landfall on the southeastern coastline of FL. then should get picked up and recurved sharply out to sea.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That is the suggestion, but as I indincated they may change it.


Yeah, I'm not sure she's quite there yet, though I suspect she'll regenerate late tomorrow/early sunday.
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Quoting reedzone:
Tropical Depression 12 became Category 1 Hurricane Katrina in less then 24 hours.. I think, somebody correct me if i'm wrong. It all depends on the conditions, which to me, look favorable with 5-10 knots, but some dry air.


When Katrina was about to cross southern Florida, it had some dry air impeding it's (Katrina's) northern quadrant. Didn't really inhibit development and strength though.
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Quoting angiest:


Expecting doomcasters to latch onto XTRP in 5...4...3...2...


What the KATRINA DOOMCASTERS dont understand is that their is a High pressure system in the gulf of mexico... which would steer anything in the gulf back northeast.....





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Quoting reedzone:
Tropical Depression 12 became Category 1 Hurricane Katrina in less then 24 hours.. I think, somebody correct me if i'm wrong. It all depends on the conditions, which to me, look favorable with 5-10 knots, but some dry air.


Took Katrina 2-3 days to become a Hurricane.
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Quoting SLU:


Looks like we could have our first Cape Verde storm mid-month, a few models have hinted at some development out in the CATL.
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reedzone,

do you see this storm going undeveloped, drifting westward then developing and going up the west coast of florida?

almost impractical looking at the trough coming down in a couple of days
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Quoting angiest:


Expecting doomcasters to latch onto XTRP in 5...4...3...2...
You know that XTRP model has been right on latly....
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Eh? Is this suggesting that Emily is regenerating?


That is the suggestion, but as I indincated they may change it.
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Quoting JFV2011:
UNBELIEVABLE, already bringing up the Katrina comparisons, tropical meteorological ignorance and arrogance at it's finest.

Just goes to show what you know!!
Look at that XTRAP line in post 270.
It's been on that track for an entire 7 minutes.
It spells Doom for the Planet, that does....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
Quoting CybrTeddy:
AL, 05, 2011080518, , BEST, 0, 230N, 780W, 30, 1011, WV

Up to 35 mph.


This blog is going to crazy if Emily is reanimated tomorrow.
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287. SLU
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Quoting angiest:


Expecting doomcasters to latch onto XTRP in 5...4...3...2...


XTRP still has this bang on. Lol.
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AL, 05, 2011080518, , BEST, 0, 230N, 780W, 30, 1011, WV

Up to 35 mph.
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is this is what the updated models show? that would be pretty hard to do. almost seems like a recurve out to sea

can someone shed some light on this? thanks
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Tropical Depression 12 became Category 1 Hurricane Katrina in less then 24 hours.. I think, somebody correct me if i'm wrong. It all depends on the conditions, which to me, look favorable with 5-10 knots, but some dry air.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Going out on a limb, they may change it.... but

EMILY, AL, L, , , , , 05, 2011, TD

Also indicated in the raw model data

AL 05 2011080518 03 OFCI 0 230N 780W 30 0 WV
AL 05 2011080518 03 OFCI 12 253N 790W 32 0 TD
AL 05 2011080518 03 OFCI 24 275N 792W 35 0 TD
AL 05 2011080518 03 OFCI 36 295N 784W 37 0 TS
AL 05 2011080518 03 OFCI 48 312N 764W 37 0 TS
AL 05 2011080518 03 OFCI 60 329N 737W 37 0
AL 05 2011080518 03 OFCI 72 346N 704W 37 0 TS


Eh? Is this suggesting that Emily is regenerating?
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Most Recent Model Tracks: (NOTE: LLC SHIFTED WEST. Therefore the Tracks will shift Left)

Next Models come out soon.



Expecting doomcasters to latch onto XTRP in 5...4...3...2...
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Em, its name starts with a K...
Karl? lol
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278. MTWX
Quoting JFV2011:
UNBELIEVABLE, already bringing up the Katrina comparisons, tropical meteorological ignorance and arrogance at it's finest.

You do have to give that those sat images bear a striking resemblance.... He was not implying that this was another K in the works. With the current and future dynamics there is no comparison at all.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
yes they are the 8Pm Two will be intresting, one thing to note is if emily regenerates TS warinings wil be issued on short notice for SE Fla. IMO
if it re-organizes and continues tracking WNW, they might do one of those TS watch from like Palm Beach all the way around to Naples. If it turns as per forecast to NW or N, yes,you could see TS watch from Keys Northward.
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Most Recent Model Tracks: (NOTE: LLC SHIFTED WEST. Therefore the Tracks will shift Left)

Next Models come out soon.



I'm rooting for the CLIP5 scenario.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
I will say that the area of spin just north of the Cuban coastline has become less defined in recent frames. Might be just a temporary thing. I won't go down without a fight. LOL.



IDK... take a look at the RGB... it is still showing good circulation in that are, plus it is now beginning to pull moisture from south of Cuba, you will see a convergent cloud line moving from SSW to NNE well south of the circulation, with clouds being swept W-E, then NE from off the island of Cuba itself.
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274. SLU
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Quoting JFV2011:
UNBELIEVABLE, already bringing up the Katrina comparisons, tropical meteorological ignorance and arrogance at it's finest.


I don't think Emily has any chance of doing anything like Katrina, for the record, I was just responding to somebody's question 'What happened to TD10?'
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Blow up of convection on the NE side of the COC

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Most Recent Model Tracks: (NOTE: LLC SHIFTED WEST. Therefore the Tracks will shift Left)

Next Models come out soon.

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Oh. Well if you call it "Hurricane Katrina" I'd get it. I'm only 11.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.