Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Wow, Andrew was that strong at landfall? I always thought it was 156 MPH Category 5 landfall... wow. Yea, Katrina was bad only because the levees failed.
? Katrina was really bad for all of Mississippi's gulf coast and parts of Louisiana (around Lake Pontchartrain, and in the far SE corner) and it was bad in NOLA because the levees existed...and then failed.

Without the levees, including the ones that didn't fail, you could almost double the area flooded in NOLA-metro by K.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Wow, Andrew was that strong at landfall? I always thought it was 156 MPH Category 5 landfall... wow. Yea, Katrina was bad only because the levees failed.


"Data collected at the Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station terminated at 5:05 EDT before winds reached maximum strength. The anemometer recorded sustained winds of 145 miles per hour (233 km/h) before it failed, and a barometric pressure of 922 millibars (27.2 inHg) was recorded. Gusts exceeding 175 mph (280 km/h) were also observed. The data from Turkey Point reflects shoreline measurements (not inland), as it is situated directly on the coastline.[12] A National Weather Service-Miami Radar image recorded on 24 August 1992 at 4:35 EDT [08:35 UTC] superimposed on a street map by the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA indicates the most powerful winds within the northern eyewall (conditions greater than 48 dBZ) made landfall between SW 152 St. (Coral Reef Drive) and SW 184 St. (Eureka Drive) in the Perrine/Cutler Ridge area.[12] dBZ readings indicate Decibels of Z (radar echo intensity/reflectivity) and help map the relative strength of storm activity within a weather system. This extremely powerful band within the northern eyewall corresponds with the exact latitude range where the highest surface wind gusts of 177 mph (248.8 km/h) and lowest barometric pressure was recorded at a private home in Perrine and evaluated by Clemson University."
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I disagree..the LLC south has more convection wrapping arounf it then the other one to the NE.Just my opinion but I can see more moisture being drawn in from the east. You are relying on models thar have never gotten this storm or it's movement correct.



Quoting MississippiWx:


I would be highly surprised if this were a TD. It doesn't even have one dominant low center. The one that everyone was staring at just north of Cuba continues to fade out with each passing frame. It's difficult for anything to sustain itself in that location with all of the convection further east. It will be interesting to see if it tries to reform under the new convection above Eastern Cuba.
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for the andrew worshiper .Camille 190mph sustained gust of 237mph registered on a large ship it put on highway 90.Could have been higer save the weather instrument was stuck on that number when it went out of commission.Andrew bad Camille a Beast Katrina with its size and surge catostrophic.Did Andrew have a 35 ft tidal surge like Katrina did did in Ms?By the way camille had 25 plus surge.
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364. wpb
Quoting SLU:
This could be the same wave as the GFS but by 240hrs the GFS has it north of PR so there's a huge time difference.

lookig that far out location north of pr the az high will not extend far to the west so looks as fish.. thats far out in time though
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Quoting JFV2011:




WOW, that justifies it all of me right there, no wonder people are so ''FREAKING'' rude at FAU. I'll never forget about my atrocious experience at that university. Good riddance.


What's wrong with FAU?
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Well, the little lobe of spin you guys were pointing at is now gone. Mine is still going to the NE. LOL :-p

I think what may be happening is the spin you guys were talking about gave way to the convection that's blowing up to the east.

Remains to be seen what happens to the area of spin to the north, but it will most likely fade out as well if the convection to the south of it continues to grow.



very intresting something looks to be spinning up quickly
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Quoting StormPro:


I wouldn't know how to check that one out but it was 32+ feet in spots of Mississippi according to surge maps plus the wave height on top of that...total destruction of over 100 miles of MS coast line from La to Ala


Here you go:

Link

It was the highest, but 27.8 feet.
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Well, the little lobe of spin you guys were pointing at is now gone. Mine is still going to the NE. LOL :-p

I think what may be happening is the spin you guys were talking about gave way to the convection that's blowing up to the east.

Remains to be seen what happens to the area of spin to the north, but it will most likely fade out as well if the convection to the south of it continues to grow.



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
The low still seems to be moving WNW. I think its going to shoot up along the the Gulf side of FLorida...
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


I've lived in Boca and Delray... I like Delray more.. but i live in Boca now.

I just wanted to use Delray.. Because Boca is ranked as the 12th rudest city in the world... didnt want to make a bad impression.


Where is it ranked 12th rudest city in the world?
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Quoting DSIjeff:
GOM high will break down/shift west tomorrow.


I was so not going to point that out.......
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Quoting robj144:


Yes, didn't Katrina have one of, if not, the highest recorded storm surges for US landfall?


I wouldn't know how to check that one out but it was 32+ feet in spots of Mississippi according to surge maps plus the wave height on top of that...total destruction of over 100 miles of MS coast line from La to Ala
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I would be highly surprised if this were a TD. It doesn't even have one dominant low center. The one that everyone was staring at just north of Cuba continues to fade out with each passing frame. It's difficult for anything to sustain itself in that location with all of the convection further east. It will be interesting to see if it tries to reform under the new convection above Eastern Cuba.
i agree, but in 12-24 hours??
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Quoting jonelu:
I concur...she developed into at cat1 right off/over the FL coast but had already been a named TS for days in the Bahamas.


It was 2 days from depression to hurricane.
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Quoting robj144:


You're from Delray? I'm in Delray.


I've lived in Boca and Delray... I like Delray more.. but i live in Boca now.

I just wanted to use Delray.. Because Boca is ranked as the 12th rudest city in the world... didnt want to make a bad impression.
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Quoting whepton3:


And I used to live in Delray... weird.

Weather is good here in Boca... may go downhill if this pans out.



And I used to live in Boca...
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Quoting JFV2011:
So, what's the final word then, gang? That advisories will be re initiated as of 5pm, is this correct?


Maybe not. They may have a typo in the file and I am wrong. It is not offical untill it is on the HTML NHC website.


I am sorry now that I even posted it.
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Quoting BenBIogger:


Took Katrina 2-3 days to become a Hurricane.
I concur...she developed into at cat1 right off/over the FL coast but had already been a named TS for days in the Bahamas.
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Quoting StormPro:


Maybe you should look at the track of the eye of "K". Look at the pics of devestation on the Mississippi coast...no levees there friend. New Orleans was not the only place Ms K hit...


Yes, didn't Katrina have one of, if not, the highest recorded storm surges for US landfall?
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I have a quick question and I am asking this because i truly dont know...not because i am saying it will happen.

We are up here in NC and could use rain just as much as everyone else. The questionable track with Emily was always how close to FL it was going to go but there seemed to never be a question on if she would turn east or simply up the coast...everyone was always dead set on her turning east.

Is there ANY chance her remnants could track up the coast to give some showers to the east (NC) or is there pretty much 0% chance of that and everyone is positive that whatever does develop(or not) will simply shoot off back to sea?

I understand the general idea of the reason for going E but just wondering if the continued general W track shes had and any slowing or speeding up could affect that E turn.
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Quoting robj144:


Your from Delray? I'm in Delray.


And I used to live in Delray... weird.

Weather is good here in Boca... may go downhill if this pans out.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Wow, Andrew was that strong at landfall? I always thought it was 156 MPH Category 5 landfall... wow. Yea, Katrina was bad only because the levees failed.


Maybe you should look at the track of the eye of "K". Look at the pics of devestation on the Mississippi coast...no levees there friend. New Orleans was not the only place Ms K hit...
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GFS recurves that wave as a monster hurricane between hataras and bermuda
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Just an Observation:

Delray Beach, Florida

Sky : Clear
Winds: Calm
Pressure: 29.93 in
Visibility : 10.0 miles


You're from Delray? I'm in Delray.
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OK....Here is the best solution to Emily. She does make TD/marginal TS status, does make contact with land in South Florida (bringing some needed rain) and evaporates immediately upon impact like Don did in Texas........
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I would be highly surprised if this were a TD. It doesn't even have one dominant low center. The one that everyone was staring at just north of Cuba continues to fade out with each passing frame. It's difficult for anything to sustain itself in that location with all of the convection further east. It will be interesting to see if it tries to reform under the new convection above Eastern Cuba.


If your are familar with ATCF, Link indication on the line for Emily. Again, they may change it.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Wow, Andrew was that strong at landfall? I always thought it was 156 MPH Category 5 landfall... wow. Yea, Katrina was bad only because the levees failed.


You might want to whisper that when on the MS coast.
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337. SLU
This could be the same wave as the GFS but by 240hrs the GFS has it north of PR so there's a huge time difference.

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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
That weak Coc shows up on the KW long range.

Link
Thats getting close.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That indication is for 5PM today.
what are u talking about she still does not have a defined LLC, even though convection is impressive
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Just an Observation:

Delray Beach, Florida

Sky : Clear
Winds: Calm
Pressure: 29.93 in
Visibility : 10.0 miles
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Wow, Andrew was that strong at landfall? I always thought it was 156 MPH Category 5 landfall... wow. Yea, Katrina was bad only because the levees failed.


Well the official wind gauges all broke so I don't know if they have any official readings at landfall.
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Um... Can you please answer this short question...

Does this mean advisorys might be initated at 5pm?


Doubt that very much.
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Last Category 5 to hit the United States:

Hurricane Andrew - South Florida

173 mph + Gust Recorded as the Eye-Wall came on Shore.
Wow, Andrew was that strong at landfall? I always thought it was 156 MPH Category 5 landfall... wow. Yea, Katrina was bad only because the levees failed.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That indication is for 5PM today.


I would be highly surprised if this were a TD. It doesn't even have one dominant low center. The one that everyone was staring at just north of Cuba continues to fade out with each passing frame. It's difficult for anything to sustain itself in that location with all of the convection further east. It will be interesting to see if it tries to reform under the new convection above Eastern Cuba.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
329. DVG
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


If I am not mistaken, K had a tight circulation as it strengthened east of FL, and practically throughout its entire life cycle (after initial problems)... hence it would not impede RI with a tight circulation.


I flew in to Ft Lauderdale in the morning the day before Katrina hit. I took a picture from the plane looking west. The first of the outer cloud bands were coming ashore at the cape. Not a cloud in the sky to the west. I was suppossed to fly home the next day, but the flight was canceled. The last flight out was at 3pm and was booked up.
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That weak Coc shows up on the KW long range.

Link
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Eh? Is this suggesting that Emily is regenerating?
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Quoting DSIjeff:
GOM high will break down/shift west tomorrow.
Ready or not GOM----here she comes!!
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That indication is for 5PM today.


Um... Can you please answer this short question...

Does this mean advisorys might be initated at 5pm?
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Quoting reedzone:
Tropical Depression 12 became Category 1 Hurricane Katrina in less then 24 hours.. I think, somebody correct me if i'm wrong. It all depends on the conditions, which to me, look favorable with 5-10 knots, but some dry air.


It was two days to transition from depression to hurricane.
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sigh... we need Emily to come through the heart of Carolinas. We are in awful drought and the crops is dying fast. If the crops dies, it will be a blow to state's economy =\
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Does anyone know if there is a kml/kmz file for the current forecast track of Typhoon Muifa
Thx
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


And the GFS:



In fact, it looks like there may be another one around the Cape Verde Islands.


I'll try that picture again:

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I remembered the birth of Katrina. I was in 5th grade class and we had to talk about current events. I told the class that new tropical storm formed off coast of Florida and it's name was Katrina. Teacher told me exactly where. I went to this huge map of USA and pointed to Daytona Beach area. I told everybody that the storm is just another weak storm going out to sea (not awared about Katrina's new forecast). That night, Katrina became Category 1 and cross Florida. 2 or 3 days later, Katrina became Category 5. That morning, my teacher asked me if this was the same storm that I talked about few days ago. I told her, yes. She was surprised how Katrina moved west compaired to other Florida hurricanes.


Last Category 5 to hit the United States:

Hurricane Andrew - South Florida

173 mph + Gust Recorded as the Eye-Wall came on Shore.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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