Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting atmoaggie:
Thanks for sharing.

Good info.

I knew it was related to the convective paramaterization, but what's going to happen now that HWRF doesn't have an issue of "suppression of tropical convection" ?!?!?!

Back to HypercaneWRF? (I know they say the fix improves the intensity error some...)


That's what I was thinking, it has been spinning up strong storms this year before the "fix".
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Seems there's a broad center between Cay Sal and Andros. Check Pats long range radar post.
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Quoting PaulinJax:
Hey just a question , could it be that the remmants of Emily will form 2 sperate storms , one south of Cuba and one to the NW ?


No, it will be one single storm if it redevelops at all.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Hey just a question , could it be that the remmants of Emily will form 2 sperate storms , one south of Cuba and one to the NW ?
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Still no indication of pressures lowering near Cuba.
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Wait where did that LLC north of cuba go?


Dissipated and most likely redeveloping underneath the convection.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
hmmm !!! ex-Emily has 2 circulations. which one will win the name Emily again ?
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Atmo,

Saw a little more info on the HWRF fix:

The operational HWRF model source code has been modified to correct an array out-of-bound problem, which could also potentially cause the model to crash.

A serious out-of-bound array problem was detected in the SAS deep convection parameterization scheme implemented in 2011 HWRF. This caused erroneous specification of the maximum vertical level where convection can reach (km 1) and the computation of moist static energy is impacted. Evaluation of the impacts of this problem indicated suppression of tropical convection as a result of abnormally low convective heating, low convective precipitation and convective tendencies, and abnormal grid point (large-scale) precipitation. Done at 21Z on 3 August
Thanks for sharing.

Good info.

I knew it was related to the convective paramaterization, but what's going to happen now that HWRF doesn't have an issue of "suppression of tropical convection" ?!?!?!

Back to HypercaneWRF? (I know they say the fix improves the intensity error some...)
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22.0n76.5w has been re-evaluated&altered for the 6pmGMT ATCF
22.2n76.7w, 23.0n78.0w are now the most recent positions


Thanx for the updated file info.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Yea, Katrina was bad only because the levees failed.


Tell that to everyone between Slidell, La. and Pascagoula, Ms. Katrina devastated New Orleans through flooding due to levee breaches, in these communities she did so with wind and storm surge. Don't lose sight of the fact that Katrina impacted a much larger geographical space than just NOLA.
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 520
Wait where did that LLC north of cuba go?
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397

WHXX01 KWBC 051823

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1823 UTC FRI AUG 5 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE EMILY (AL052011) 20110805 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110805 1800 110806 0600 110806 1800 110807 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.0N 78.0W 24.3N 79.5W 25.8N 80.7W 26.8N 81.3W

BAMD 23.0N 78.0W 23.9N 79.6W 24.8N 81.2W 25.7N 82.6W

BAMM 23.0N 78.0W 24.0N 79.6W 25.0N 80.9W 25.9N 81.8W

LBAR 23.0N 78.0W 24.4N 79.9W 25.8N 81.6W 27.1N 82.7W

SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 38KTS

DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 38KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110807 1800 110808 1800 110809 1800 110810 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 28.0N 81.1W 29.6N 77.2W 31.8N 70.3W 33.8N 60.0W

BAMD 26.4N 83.5W 27.5N 84.4W 28.3N 83.6W 28.5N 80.0W

BAMM 26.7N 82.3W 27.7N 81.7W 28.3N 79.3W 29.6N 74.9W

LBAR 28.2N 83.0W 29.8N 81.9W 30.6N 78.1W 32.5N 72.1W

SHIP 40KTS 46KTS 51KTS 36KTS

DSHP 40KTS 46KTS 51KTS 36KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 78.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 15KT

LATM12 = 20.9N LONM12 = 74.5W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 17KT

LATM24 = 18.1N LONM24 = 73.3W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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22.0n76.5w has been re-evaluated&altered for the 6pmGMT ATCF
22.2n76.7w, 23.0n78.0w are now the most recent positions

TropicalWaveEmily's travel-speed was 16.7mph(26.8k/h) on a heading of 303.8degrees(NW*)

The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Copy&paste 17.2n71.9w, 18.1n73.3w-20.0n73.8w, 20.0n73.8w-20.9n74.5w, 20.9n74.5w-22.2n76.7w, 22.2n76.7w-23.0n78.0w, cme, tpa, mth, ccc, cox, 22.2n76.7w-24.758n80.972w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TW.Emily was headed toward passage over GrassyKey,Florida ~11&2/3rds hours from now

* 303.75degrees is precisely midway between NorthNorthWest and NorthWest.
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Quoting Patrap:
Katrina NOAA base Map with Thumbnails


Katrina's Storm Surge
A Weather Underground 16 part series about Hurricane Katrina, by Margie Kieper.




Hurricane Katrina of 2005 produced the highest storm surge ever recorded on the U.S. coast--an astonishing 27.8 feet at Pass Christian, Mississippi. This bested the previous U.S. record of 22.8 feet, which also occurred at Pass Christian, during 1969's Hurricane Camille. According to the NHC Katrina final report (PDF File), Hurricane Katrina brought a surge of 24 - 28 feet to a 20-mile stretch of Mississippi coast. Fully 90 miles of coast from eastern Louisiana to Alabama received a storm surge characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane. The colossal damage that resulted has been documented by blogger Margie Kieper during a series of blog posts that ran in the summer of 2006. The contents are reproduced here, and consist of an introduction explaining why the surge was so large, and 16 parts exploring the damage done to each stretch of the Gulf Coast ravaged by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.





What a great series she wrote - I really enjoyed it.
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Quoting robj144:


Thanks... don't really know if his methodology is that solid, but interesting anyhow.

Are you a meteorology student? If so, where are you going to school S. Fla?


Senior in High-School.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
oh, ok. I guess I don't know whose storm surge was the worst in the world, but I know Katrina hold the record in USA. Geez, government people need to make the records official so we don't get mixed up.


I wasn't responding to the storm surge comment...just that you said K wouldn't have been bad if the levees hadn't failed...It was horrible for everyone else around for 300 miles friend. New orleans was not the land fall of that monster. Not trying to call you out just pointing out there were other places devestated
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POSS T.C.F.A.
05L/INV/REM LOW
MARK
22.85N/74.89W
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I told you guys that'd

1. Emily would reform

2. Hurricane Emily in 3 Days

I think Number 1 will happen, any bets on Number 2?
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Atmo,

Saw a little more info on the HWRF fix:

The operational HWRF model source code has been modified to correct an array out-of-bound problem, which could also potentially cause the model to crash.

A serious out-of-bound array problem was detected in the SAS deep convection parameterization scheme implemented in 2011 HWRF. This caused erroneous specification of the maximum vertical level where convection can reach (km+1) and the computation of moist static energy is impacted. Evaluation of the impacts of this problem indicated suppression of tropical convection as a result of abnormally low convective heating, low convective precipitation and convective tendencies, and abnormal grid point (large-scale) precipitation. Done at 21Z on 3 August
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396. 7544
starting to fire around 23 /78
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Link


Thanks... don't really know if his methodology is that solid, but interesting anyhow.

Are you a meteorology student? If so, where are you going to school in S. Fla, or are you home for the summer?
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
i think if the cinvection continues to increase the nhc may regenrate it and issue warnings because it is so close


Not until there's a closed low.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
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What do 145 Mph winds look Like?

Look Below: (Hurricane Charley - 2004 )

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I am referring to the spin sw of Andros Island not south of Cuba. I am sure you can see the spin north of the Cuban coaST RIGHT OFF THE COAST.
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Sigh, just die Emily. Please.
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Quoting portcharlotte:
Right...it's stilll spinning very clearly ....Missisp and the conection is increasing. You need glasses my friend or you just do not want it to spin!




Ummm...I've never said it stopped spinning. You are taking things out of context. I said what's most likely happening is that the center or SPIN is reforming underneath the convection.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting Methurricanes:
no that was proven to be contamintated, due to the high terrain most of the 42 ft was wave runup, no storm surge.
oh, ok. I guess I don't know whose storm surge was the worst in the world, but I know Katrina hold the record in USA. Geez, government people need to make the records official so we don't get mixed up.
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Right...it's stilll spinning very clearly ....Missisp and the conection is increasing. You need glasses my friend or you just do not want it to spin!


Quoting tea3781:


I still see the spin on the visible image...
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Quoting NOLALawyer:


While I would like to see old Emily spin back up into something worth tracking, I think another Katrina would be a bit of a stretch. LOL.


Wasn't saying it was gonna be another Katrina.. Just saying that things can change if conditions permit.
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circulation is becoming evident on the Miami Long range doppler radar
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Quoting tea3781:


I still see the spin on the visible image...


Are you looking at the most recent visible loops? Mine is at 19:01UTC and that area of spin in the bay looking feature of Cuba is gone.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting portcharlotte:
I disagree..the LLC south has more convection wrapping arounf it then the other one to the NE.Just my opinion but I can see more moisture being drawn in from the east. You are relying on models thar have never gotten this storm or it's movement correct.



There were a number of models that forecast this storm correcting for the past 3 days or so. The CMC actually showed everything accurately over 60 hours ago.
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Quoting reedzone:
Tropical Depression 12 in 2005


Ems 2011


While I would like to see old Emily spin back up into something worth tracking, I think another Katrina would be a bit of a stretch. LOL.
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 520
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Here is an intersting fact about wunderground.com, it is ranked 480th in the world for web traffic, thats impressive.


Larger than normal troll traffic?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


What I'm saying is that a new circulation could be forming underneath the convection.
i think if the cinvection continues to increase the nhc may regenrate it and issue warnings because it is so close
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Hey. We wouldn't mind the rain here. It's ridiculously humid today...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22323
Quoting MississippiWx:
Well, the little lobe of spin you guys were pointing at is now gone. Mine is still going to the NE. LOL :-p

I think what may be happening is the spin you guys were talking about gave way to the convection that's blowing up to the east.

Remains to be seen what happens to the area of spin to the north, but it will most likely fade out as well if the convection to the south of it continues to grow.





I still see the spin on the visible image...
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Quoting robj144:


Where is it ranked 12th rudest city in the world?


Link
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I was wrong... I realized right away that Hurricane Katrina caused the highest storm surge in USA history at 27.8 ft in Pass Christan, MS. Hurricane Camille was close, but only at 24.8 in Pass Christan also. Sorry about that =( The world record for storm surge is 43 ft by Cyclone Mahina in 1899.
no that was proven to be contamintated, due to the high terrain most of the 42 ft was wave runup, no storm surge.
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Quoting portcharlotte:
I disagree..the LLC south has more convection wrapping arounf it then the other one to the NE.Just my opinion but I can see more moisture being drawn in from the east. You are relying on models thar have never gotten this storm or it's movement correct.





What I'm saying is that a new circulation could be forming underneath the convection.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Katrina NOAA base Map with Thumbnails


Katrina's Storm Surge
A Weather Underground 16 part series about Hurricane Katrina, by Margie Kieper.




Hurricane Katrina of 2005 produced the highest storm surge ever recorded on the U.S. coast--an astonishing 27.8 feet at Pass Christian, Mississippi. This bested the previous U.S. record of 22.8 feet, which also occurred at Pass Christian, during 1969's Hurricane Camille. According to the NHC Katrina final report (PDF File), Hurricane Katrina brought a surge of 24 - 28 feet to a 20-mile stretch of Mississippi coast. Fully 90 miles of coast from eastern Louisiana to Alabama received a storm surge characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane. The colossal damage that resulted has been documented by blogger Margie Kieper during a series of blog posts that ran in the summer of 2006. The contents are reproduced here, and consist of an introduction explaining why the surge was so large, and 16 parts exploring the damage done to each stretch of the Gulf Coast ravaged by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.



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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


You might want to whisper that when on the MS coast.
I was wrong... I realized right away that Hurricane Katrina caused the highest storm surge in USA history at 27.8 ft in Pass Christan, MS. Hurricane Camille was close, but only at 24.8 in Pass Christan also. Sorry about that =( The world record for storm surge is 43 ft by Cyclone Mahina in 1899.
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Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
for the andrew worshiper .Camille 190mph sustained gust of 237mph registered on a large ship it put on highway 90.Could have been higer save the weather instrument was stuck on that number when it went out of commission.Andrew bad Camille a Beast Katrina with its size and surge catostrophic.Did Andrew have a 35 ft tidal surge like Katrina did did in Ms?By the way camille had 25 plus surge.


Camille was absolutely unreal...
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If one looks at the 1845Z RGB satellite pic (best in loop), you will see the thunderstorms on the north side collapse and send an outflow boundary southward, but in the last frame you can see that outflow boundary becoming involove in the circulation, and rotating, with the eastern portion of the outflow pivoting east, then northeast. More convection is to the east of that, building into the same are. Needless to say, NOT a TD at 5pm, as she is still disorganized.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Wow, Andrew was that strong at landfall? I always thought it was 156 MPH Category 5 landfall... wow. Yea, Katrina was bad only because the levees failed.
? Katrina was really bad for all of Mississippi's gulf coast and parts of Louisiana (around Lake Pontchartrain, and in the far SE corner) and it was bad in NOLA because the levees existed...and then failed.

Without the levees, including the ones that didn't fail, you could almost double the area flooded in NOLA-metro by K.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.