Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

Share this Blog
24
+

Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 469 - 419

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89Blog Index

Wave improving appereance near 12N34W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here in Nassau, Bahamas, lots of diurnal showers and T-storms. Interesting because every 15 minutes it pours and then sun comes back out :) Enjoying it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Maybe this will help?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
466. Skyepony (Mod)
I skimmed about 1/2 of this. NOAA as scientists looks to be setting limits where it won't be bullied by both corporate & government interests.


NOAA scientific integrity

"Scientific integrity is at the core of producing and using good science. By being open and honest about our science, we build understanding and trust."

Dr. Jane Lubchenco,
NOAA Administrator

Science is the foundation of all NOAA does. NOAA’s weather forecasts and warnings, nautical charts, climate information, fishing regulations, coastal management recommendations, and satellites in the sky all depend on science. The quality of NOAA science is exemplary, and many of NOAA’s scientists are recognized as national and international experts in their fields.

NOAA has been working to develop a scientific integrity policy that would continue and enhance NOAA’s culture of transparency, integrity, and ethical behavior.

To this end, NOAA has embarked on a thoughtful and transparent effort to draft a policy to uphold the principles of scientific integrity contained in the President’s March 9, 2009, memorandum and Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) director, John Holdren’s December 17, 2010, memorandum on scientific integrity.

Transparency is a key principle in this policy, and in keeping with this principle, we are seeking comments from the public on the draft NOAA scientific integrity policy and its accompanying procedural handbook.

Please send your feedback to integrity.noaa@noaa.gov either in an email or a MS Word document by August 20, 2011. Please include a reference to the section, sub-section, and paragraph when providing comments on specific language in the draft documents.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
When you look at the Long Range radar out of either Key West or Miami, both show that the CoC is to the SSW of the western tip of Andros... I think the Key West radar is a little better, because you can see more of the bottom half of the circulation as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
<
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JFV2011:


Indeed it is. How's convergence and divergence over it now, Miss?


Convergence:



Divergence:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
<
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
POLL :)

What will be the Percantages for EX-EMILY at the Next TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook) at 8PM?

A) 50%
B) 60%
C) 70%
D) 80%-90%
E) TD


D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TideWaterWeather:


IMO.../// The northern spin was never anything.. just a meso circulating around... The spin north of Cuba WAS and STILL IS the focus point.. it may appear that it is gone from the visible SAT but... it's still very much there.. Its just being shadowed in clouds and not as visible currently.. due to the changing sun angle..


Then explain to me why the low level clouds on what would be the northern side of that spin are moving EAST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DSIjeff:
Does Once-Emily now have two Centers of Circulation? or just one general broad area?


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
up to 80% at 5pm imo

nothing at five got to wait till 8pm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
area just se of miami seem to be forming a broad spin
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4728
POLL :)

What will be the Percantages for EX-EMILY at the Next TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook) at 8PM?

A) 50%
B) 60%
C) 70%
D) 80%-90%
E) TD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Turns out my thinking from earlier was actually pretty spot on. If you recall, I said the spin to the north would take over or a compromise between the two would form the eventual dominant circulation. Well, the 19:31UTC vis shows that the low level center that was on the southern end has disappeared from visible. The one to the north is still going, but it will probably have the same fate as the other vort as the area circled in red should take over.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


IMO.../// The northern spin was never anything.. just a meso circulating around... The spin north of Cuba WAS and STILL IS the focus point.. it may appear that it is gone from the visible SAT but... it's still very much there.. Its just being shadowed in clouds and not as visible currently.. due to the changing sun angle..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
450. 7544
up to 80% at 5pm imo

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Anyone think its possible that the a Circulation has formed underneath the thunderstorms?
wait watch see
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Thanks.

The 5-10kt drop in shear is interesting.



Sure is.. the only inhabitant is dry air. What's ur thinking on the track?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NOLALawyer:


Tell that to everyone between Slidell, La. and Pascagoula, Ms. Katrina devastated New Orleans through flooding due to levee breaches, in these communities she did so with wind and storm surge. Don't lose sight of the fact that Katrina impacted a much larger geographical space than just NOLA.
I corrected myself like 100 posts back... geez. I forgot about that bad storm surge in Mississippi, ok?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Unless you have me on ignore for some reason, post #428 explains.


Oh Sorry... your not on ignore... I just wasnt paying attention (Cooking me some food.. )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
more than likely the next TWO should say 80% and would also say any increase in organization would result in regeneration
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JFV2011:


Excellent observation, acere.
Quoting reedzone:


Excellent Analysis!! Look the convection near that as well.. Could be an interesting night ahead.


Thanks.

The 5-10kt drop in shear is interesting.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
She's definitely attempting to come back agian. Her outflow on the eastern and southern sides is very well organized, but still looks as if that High pressure off to her west-northwest is still shearing her some. Hence why there is not outflow to the north or west of the system.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
22 /76 could this be the new location with the spin going on almost closing off what u think ?


Not sure, but it looks like the low clouds around 77W are moving NNE... so that would not be where the low is, at least the way I see it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Turns out my thinking from earlier was actually pretty spot on. If you recall, I said the spin to the north would take over or a compromise between the two would form the eventual dominant circulation. Well, the 19:31UTC vis shows that the low level center that was on the southern end has disappeared from visible. The one to the north is still going, but it will probably have the same fate as the other vort as the area circled in red should take over.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


yep, very good explanation
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Anyone think its possible that the a Circulation has formed underneath the thunderstorms?


Unless you have me on ignore for some reason, post #428 explains.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Turns out my thinking from earlier was actually pretty spot on. If you recall, I said the spin to the north would take over or a compromise between the two would form the eventual dominant circulation. Well, the 19:31UTC vis shows that the low level center that was on the southern end has disappeared from visible. The one to the north is still going, but it will probably have the same fate as the other vort as the area circled in red should take over.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


Excellent Analysis!! Look the convection near that as well.. Could be an interesting night ahead.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone think its possible that the a Circulation has formed underneath the thunderstorms?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
433. 7544
Quoting MississippiWx:
Turns out my thinking from earlier was actually pretty spot on. If you recall, I said the spin to the north would take over or a compromise between the two would form the eventual dominant circulation. Well, the 19:31UTC vis shows that the low level center that was on the southern end has disappeared from visible. The one to the north is still going, but it will probably have the same fate as the other vort as the area circled in red should take over.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


i pick the red one all the action seems there
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

Convergence and Divergence has increased...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

Alternating from South To SSW in savannah
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Turns out my thinking from earlier was actually pretty spot on. If you recall, I said the spin to the north would take over or a compromise between the two would form the eventual dominant circulation. Well, the 19:31UTC vis shows that the low level center that was on the southern end has disappeared from visible. The one to the north is still going, but it will probably have the same fate as the other vort as the area circled in red should take over.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That's what I was thinking, it has been spinning up strong storms this year before the "fix".
Tough to come up with a way that suppression of tropical convection yields a positive feedback...or that fixing it wouldn't yield stronger tropical cyclones.

But, what if the "suppression" yielded more available moisture (as that moisture wouldn't have been turned in condensed, cooler water in the model)?

Maybe it will now trend less in the HyprecaneWRF direction. (Tenuous proposition, I know.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
426. Skyepony (Mod)
Area of low shear got a little bigger. Looks like the LLC is backing up east under the Midlevel layer as it has come to the west some with the reduced shear. Orientation to Cuba's sea breeze showers & trough might just be an advantage to Emily.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
425. 7544
22 /76 could this be the new location with the spin going on almost closing off what u think ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Emily
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
can someone share the latest model projections for the remnants of Emily or potential emily again to be?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Kinda interesting WNW Sunset House, Grand Cayman
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
according to the 18z numerical models, the center is the one just north of Cuba.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Thanks for sharing.

Good info.

I knew it was related to the convective paramaterization, but what's going to happen now that HWRF doesn't have an issue of "suppression of tropical convection" ?!?!?!

Back to HypercaneWRF? (I know they say the fix improves the intensity error some...)


That's what I was thinking, it has been spinning up strong storms this year before the "fix".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 469 - 419

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.