Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

Share this Blog
24
+

Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 4069 - 4019

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89Blog Index

Quoting IKE:

I do too....but.....take frequent walks outside after divulging.

................................................. .................................................. .....




LOL!!! Yep!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Okay, I had enough with that kid.

Na na na na, na na na na......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4065. IKE

Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


i love deviled eggs....
I do too....but.....take frequent walks outside after divulging.

................................................. .................................................. .....


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting violet312s:


What does NAO mean?


North Atlantic Oscillation.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting BahaHurican:


Looks like Broward / Palm Beach counties might get a few showers from our re-Emily after all...




Would love it, but don't think so....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


of course I would, smart-a.


I call the bluff.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


I do not have to justify my academic credentials to you. however, as a kicker, I'll gladly send you a photocopy of my B.A in Psychology in December, if you'd like?
Are you friends with that crazy guy from Connecticut?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What's with the Fresca addiction in this place? I don't get it. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:




i love deviled eggs....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
huh? west broward is in nebraska?

this blog gets stranger and stranger every year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
18z GFS says Negative NAO for the next 2 weeks:



What does NAO mean?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


Excellent trend, Mike, let's hope it continues.


And a -NAO means less chances for a Florida hit, if you read Adrian's post correctly. Doesn't that mean BAD for you?
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


I do not have to justify my academic credentials to you. however, as a kicker, I'll gladly send you a photocopy of my B.A in Psychology in December, if you'd like?


He never asked you to.

Just for the record, you're gonna need more than a B.A. to get a job as a psychologist, much more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4048. DFWjc
Quoting PcolaDan:


two ups-manship :)


Once again PcolaDan you are right!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4047. IKE
Time for some popcorn and a cold Fresca.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting deaddude21:

Adrian, I would think that strongly positive (like 2007) would mean more Central America and Mexican low rider hits.


Not not nessary it all depends were the trof set up is and many other things that come into play. People sometimes dont understand how difficult it can be for a cv storm to make that trek. A pattern that would steer a Cape Verde Hurricane directly into Florida for example could exist for two months, but if there is no Hurricane to be steered the pattern is meaningless. Charley slammed into SW Florida because an early season trough just happened to be in the right place as Charley turned north in the Gulf. History shows most Tropical Cyclones that enter the Gulf pass west of the southwest coast of Florida and vent their fury from the Florida panhandle to Mexico. In 2007 we watched as two Cat 5 monsters traveled the whole length of the Caribbean but couldn't turn north because of the strong high pressure system to the north that happened to be in place at just the right time to protect Florida and the gulf coast. In 2004 and 2005 we watched as Charley, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita were able to get into the Gulf because they were not blocked. Regardless of how strong a Tropical Cyclone is, it always follows the path of least resistance. It's not "where" a Hurricane is, but "when".

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting deaddude21:
Margarine is MUCH worse for the circulatory system than butter.


What he says, is true.

BTW, why do any of you believe anything RFB says? Are you that gullible?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


Excellent trend, Mike, let's hope it continues.


Mike? My name isn't Mike.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting DFWjc:
and now back to weather and not one ups-manships...


two ups-manship :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneswatch:


Slidell is not part of NOLA. Just saying.

If you're ordered to evacuate for a Cat. 5, would you? I personally doubt you would.

Yea, I said that too, but facts that don't fit the argument are just ignored as if they don't exist.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4039. DFWjc
and now back to weather and not one ups-manships...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z GFS says Negative NAO for the next 2 weeks:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
4035. IKE

Quoting NavarreMark:


Lets not forget the deviled eggs and raisons now.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CatfishJones:


He apparently missed me explaining why his Psyche argument was a faulty syllogism for not being crazy.


As it did with me. He made absolutely no sense with that post.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:
3986. KEEPEROFTHEGATE

LMFAO!!!


OMG I am still Laughin

LMAO :o)

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


I pity the people that he counsels. They have no hope at all.


I second this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


Well, they all should have evacuated prior to the storm moving in, as simple as that. Mayor Nagen begged and downright pleaded to all of them to leave prior to Katrina moving in, heck, some were even saying those things with tears on the television. Therefore, despite all of that, there were still those that decided not to leave, that was their irresponsibility and not that of NOLA's officials, just saying.


Slidell is not part of NOLA. Just saying.

If you're ordered to evacuate for a Cat. 5, would you? I personally doubt you would.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Negative or neutral NAO predicted by the ECMWF for the next 10 days.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
We had a nasty squall or something around 4pm in west broward, had to pull off the road, very heavy rains and bad visibility. Was that from Emily or just regular afternoon storms?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4025. Skyepony (Mod)
Emily weakened with the heat of the day..which like most days helped her slip a little farther west. She looks like she wants to get a blob on tonight. Under 10kts of shear, but check that..out of nowhere an anticyclone has set up nearby. If these couple & she should fire up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rv1pop:
OK. Look at Slidel, LA. Families still can not find each other - probably never will. Areas that never will again have power. Two houses I know of where there were (are) bodies inside that it is still too dangerous to go in and take care of them. A huricane party in section 8 housing that LA. said was illegal so the dead were not counted.


I do find the above very hard to believe.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 4069 - 4019

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
54 °F
Partly Cloudy