Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting Levi32:
There is a competing surface center northeast of Harbour Island. The main center is SW of Andros Island.
where is harbour island
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Quoting Levi32:
There is a competing surface center northeast of Harbour Island. The main center is SW of Andros Island.


The one SW of Andros Island is being absorbed into the main blob of convection as the spin in that location has turned into eastward moving low clouds.

NASA Rapid Scan visible shows this well.
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Quoting whepton3:


Actually, I meant Levi... someone was wondering when he would post something and within a couple of minutes he did... very weird.. lol


Was I magically summoned without my knowledge? Lol.
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The flow takes Emily to the wnw IMO...thanks for the map


Quoting DSIjeff:
Nobody has pointed this out yet:

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to me something has formed between NE cuban coast, andros island and to the west of grest exuma
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Interesting name from UKMET Office


GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.08.2011



TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 77.1W




Wonder if they jumped the gun or if that's a preview?
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Quoting Gearsts:
LINK?
NVM
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There is a competing surface center northeast of Harbour Island. The main center is SW of Andros Island.
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Interesting name from UKMET Office


GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.08.2011



TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 77.1W


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Quoting Levi32:
I see the 12z ECMWF is lighting things up in the eastern Atlantic for the first time this season.

LINK?
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Quoting islander101010:
on cue she returns but where?


Actually, I meant Levi... someone was wondering when he would post something and within a couple of minutes he did... very weird.. lol
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Tulsa, OK :
Temperature: 110 °F
Humidity: 16 %

Wind Speed: S 10 G 25 MPH
Barometer: 29.77" (1006.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 54 °F (12 °C)
Heat Index: 109 °F (43 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

Umm, I'm surprised we aren't hearing more about wildfires, there. (Some news out there about it, though.)

25 MPH gusts with that low of a RH is good fire weather...


That should warrant a fire weather watch or a red flag warning, I think.
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South Florida is in for some real good soaking :):):):)
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Nobody has pointed this out yet:

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Hey, just checked in and it may be a stretch but perhaps Key West will get some rain from Emily this weekend. Wouldn't mind some cloud cover and cooling breezes. I getting ready to leave. Ya'll have a good weekend.
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CIMSS seems to have some form of low in the eastern Gulf:

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I see the 12z ECMWF is lighting things up in the eastern Atlantic for the first time this season.

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Convergence map really matches up well with what could be the center forming:

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for sure something has formed near andros island if you look at visible you can see a somewhat clockwise flow and on the MIami Radar seabreeze convection is moving SSW to the tip look and see , looks to be intresting
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428. MississippiWx 3:51 PM EDT on August 05, 2011

Good Call looking at the most recent hi-rez frames as the Sun is starting to go down in those parts.....And headed right towards Andros Island at the moment. Probably a good idea to start checking the Navy weather site for their take as the Atlantic Underwater Testing and Evaluation Center is located on the North Island. Regardless of the prospects of short-term development, looks like they are in for some squally weather at the least.
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Afternoon Reed.
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The steering flow in the low levels are from the ESE...I believe the trough will proceed further west before turning northward into Florida.


Quoting ILwthrfan:


I agree, it wasn't vertical stacked to begin with. It's been improving its structure throughout the day. That llc is still there and always has been. It just slowed down and is becoming absorbed by the blob. You can still clearly see the low level clouds and spiraling struture that was with it throughout its duration today. Miami gonna get wet tonight. This should ride up the east coast of Florida then zip out northeast.
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Quoting reedzone:


Hey Cyberteddy! Good to see you on here today.


Reedzone, is this of any use to you? Can you locate the center?

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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
ex-Emily's really starting to look good in the last few frames.


I agree!
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Quoting whepton3:


Almost on cue... he returns.
on cue she returns but where?
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Tulsa, OK :
Temperature: 110 °F
Humidity: 16 %

Wind Speed: S 10 G 25 MPH
Barometer: 29.77" (1006.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 54 °F (12 °C)
Heat Index: 109 °F (43 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

Umm, I'm surprised we aren't hearing more about wildfires, there. (Some news out there about it, though.)

25 MPH gusts with that low of a RH is good fire weather...
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Quoting Weatherman12345678:
What are the chances of Emily redeveloping??


90 PERCENT
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Quoting Levi32:
Good afternoon.

Emily is attempting her comeback between Cuba and the Bahamas. The center of the low-level circulation, which is still an open trough, is somewhere south of Andros Island.

Satellite loop
levi with every from convection continues to increase and the broad center continues to become better organized , any idea if the NHC upgrades soon ???? looks to me at this rate we should have emily back late tonight
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ex-Emily's really starting to look good in the last few frames.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Agreed, similar to my thoughts.


Hey Cyberteddy! Good to see you on here today.
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Emily still has a lot to fight off. Dry air to the northwest remains a big issue. An upper trough extends over western Cuba and near Emily's old circulation, keeping this dry air right up against her. This trough will eventually retrograde west, but a bigger problem will be the upper high over the southeast U.S. states, currently bringing northeasterly winds aloft down across the Atlantic north of the Bahamas. These winds are converging and sinking, creating a dry and stable atmosphere north of Emily. Without the built-up upper anticyclone that Emily had before, it will be difficult to but heads with this high to the north, and it could be a Don-like situation where dry air never leaves Emily alone, along with the potential for more shearing.

Water Vapor Loop
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23N 78W
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lEVI...it looks to be sw of Andros and IMO is moving more west than north. I would believe that this trough could slip intop the straits of Florida...


Quoting Levi32:
Good afternoon.

Emily is attempting her comeback between Cuba and the Bahamas. The center of the low-level circulation, which is still an open trough, is somewhere south of Andros Island.

Satellite loop
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POSS T.C.F.A.
05L/INV/REM LOW
MARK
23.45N/75.19W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Quoting TideWaterWeather:


IMO.../// The northern spin was never anything.. just a meso circulating around... The spin north of Cuba WAS and STILL IS the focus point.. it may appear that it is gone from the visible SAT but... it's still very much there.. Its just being shadowed in clouds and not as visible currently.. due to the changing sun angle..


I agree, it wasn't vertical stacked to begin with. It's been improving its structure throughout the day. That llc is still there and always has been. It just slowed down and is becoming absorbed by the blob. You can still clearly see the low level clouds and spiraling struture that was with it throughout its duration today. Miami gonna get wet tonight. This should ride up the east coast of Florida then zip out northeast.
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What are the chances of Emily redeveloping??
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Quoting Levi32:
Good afternoon.

Emily is attempting her comeback between Cuba and the Bahamas. The center of the low-level circulation, which is still an open trough, is somewhere south of Andros Island.

Satellite loop


Almost on cue... he returns.
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Quoting reedzone:


Excellent Analysis!! Look the convection near that as well.. Could be an interesting night ahead.


Agreed, similar to my thoughts.
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How about this?

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Link

They updated the low on the visible image - click on fronts - dropped a millibar from 1012 to 1011
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Will have to battle diurnal minimum later today.
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Good afternoon.

Emily is attempting her comeback between Cuba and the Bahamas. The center of the low-level circulation, which is still an open trough, is somewhere south of Andros Island.

Satellite loop
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emily is picking up again watch out west caost of LF
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Wave improving appereance near 12N34W.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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