Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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omg!! the ghost of emily is trying to form an eye!!!

eeek!!!! LOL!
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I toollld you soo.

Hurricane Emily 3 days

Emily reforms tonight
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Quoting lucreto:


No chance those were bogus measurements the Cayman islands saw 110 sustained winds at most during Ivan.


I live in Grand Cayman and I can tell you that winds here were sustained at 130 mph and gusted to 149 for several hours. See NHC report linked below. We were in the northern eye wall for a long operiod of time as the eye was centered only 25 to our South.

Link
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Wow! Check this out!


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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Getting Better Defined...




What! Shes back?
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from 2:05

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N76W JUST OFF THE COAST
OF CUBA ON THE BAHAMAS SIDE. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE
REMNANT OF EMILY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
ACROSS CUBA TO CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN...AND THEN TO
15N81W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 24N71W...IN THE
BAHAMAS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W...AND OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM 19N TO 20N
ALONG 76W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH 15 MPH.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Quoting P451:


What is a good link to the Rapid Scan imagery?

Not a direct link because they fizzle out.

Just can't seem to find one that is active.


I'm on my iPhone right now. I'll give you one later if someone else hasn't already.
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looking at doppler radar from eastern cuba indicated that a LLC is trying to form and i would not be surprised to see Emily comeback later tonight
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I See Banding coming off of cuba and rotating to the Northeast... Anyone else see that?
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If she is able to regain TD or TS status at some point, then she will be long remembered one of the few and the proud who survived a very disruptive brush with Hispanola as I look at the loop posted by P451 below.
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Getting Better Defined...

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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
WOW Look at that feeder band over land,solid line of yellow thundersstorms


Is that similar to yellow snow? :)
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604. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
RSMC Miami National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TROPICAL CYCLONE EUGENE (EP052011)
2:00 PM PDT August 5 2011
=====================================

SUBJECT: EUGENE Continues To Lose Strength

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Eugene (997 hPa) located at 18.2N 124.5W or 870 NM west southwest of southern tip of Baja California, Mexico has sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 19.3N 128.4W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 20.2N 132.3W - 20 knots (Low Pressure Area)
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WOW Look at that feeder band over land,solid line of yellow thundersstorms
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18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Emily
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Quoting lucreto:


No chance those were bogus measurements the Cayman islands saw 110 sustained winds at most during Ivan.


Has ANY storm, according to your research, made landfall with winds over 110 mph? I suppose Camille was barely 100 mph at landfall.
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Far as I'm concerned, the spin and convection is impressive work by ex-Em in such a short time. Would sure like to get a clear fix on the movement of this "remnant."
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2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


J: DOOM.


AKA I:OTHER
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Will the next set of models initalzie the southern ciculation as the Center?
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Quoting FromMy11YearOldSon:
800 PM UPDATE POLL


A: 60%- Chance Of Development
B: 60/80% Chance Of Development
C: 80%-100% Chance of Development
D: Tropical Depression Emily
E: Tropical Storm Emily
F: Hurricane Emily
G: Hypercane Emily
H: Sub-Tropical Storm Emily
I: Other


J: DOOM.
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Not at all... The Dominant Circulation is SSE of Andros Island.
just east of eluthera its fighting windshear dont seem to be moving
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4348
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Not at all... The Dominant Circulation is SSE of Andros Island.


Correction, I meant the southern one.

But still, point remains.
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Whoops, double post.

So, how's it looking?
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Looks to me like Dr. Avila's gut feeling from yesterday afternoon might pan out at this rate......He is probably smiling right about now.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
While there has been an increase in convection there has not been any much improvement IMO in the core the last few hours, while the northern circulation appears to be taking over Emily is still struggling with two circulations and dry air intrusion. I would be surprised if the NHC notches the percentages up at 8.


Not at all... The Dominant Circulation is SSE of Andros Island.
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Okay then...

800 PM UPDATE

A. 60-% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
B. 60-80% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
C. 80%-100% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
D. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY
E. TROPICAL STORM EMILY
F. HURRICANE EMILY
G. HYPERCANE EMILY
H. SUB-TROPICAL STORM EMILY
I. OTHER
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Quoting FromMy11YearOldSon:


You think we'll get that far right now?


Sorry, one second.

SARCASM FLAG: [ON]
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While there has been an increase in convection there has not been any much improvement IMO in the core the last few hours, while the northern circulation appears to be taking over Emily is still struggling with two circulations and dry air intrusion. I would be surprised if the NHC notches the percentages up at 8.
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MississippiWx, Do you think the open area on radar is possible mid-level circulation, or LLC?
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Maybe just Maybe she will become a TD at 11pm
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
I actually like the overall presentation of the vis-loops early in the am and later in the afternoon because you can really discern some details, and depth, that the overhead really bright sun sometimes washes out.
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12Z NOGAPS..develops Emily after the bahamas and close awfully close to NC

Link
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Miami Radar
NEXRAD RadarType
Echo Tops ° Elevation



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Its alive..!
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Convection continues to build and a possible center continues to form SSE of Andros Island.

20 minutes ago:



i am in total agreement with this statement above sir
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


You left out Hurricane Emily.

Lol.


You think we'll get that far right now?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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