Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting StAugustineFL:


Are those costs adjusted for inflation?


Yes, Andrew was at 26B in 1992.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Just had the 5pm update. Won't be any sort of upgrade anytime soon.
They didnt even up the percentage. The dry air to the north will probably hinder her. I would be surprised if we see any upgrade before tomorrow.
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Quoting outrocket:
Katrina was the most costly...Not Andrew..Andrew was #2
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Deadliest_Costliest.shtml


Are those costs adjusted for inflation?
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I got the feeling the circ by cuba is LLC,and the other is mid-level? how do all you guys and gals see it?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Just had the 5pm update. Won't be any sort of upgrade anytime soon.


Yeah if there is one it will be sometime tomorrow or possibly Sunday.
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659. MTWX
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


10x + Worse.. Andrew had gusts of 177 mph... Katrina 130-140 mph at landfall

If you are talking total cost "damages" Katrina beat the snot out of Andrew!! $80B to $35B respectively.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Just had the 5pm update. Won't be any sort of upgrade anytime soon.
does it look likely to be regenerated
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well
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
has anyone checked the Navy to see if emily has been renumbered, i dont know why but i have a feeling its going to be upgraded soon


Just had the 5pm update. Won't be any sort of upgrade anytime soon.
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I don't see an eye forming. Can someone point it out?
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


There would be no renumber, keeps the same number. I thought ATCF indicated redesignation, but I was wrong.
have we checked ATCF within the past hour
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
has anyone checked the Navy to see if emily has been renumbered, i dont know why but i have a feeling its going to be upgraded soon


There would be no renumber, keeps the same number. I thought ATCF indicated redesignation, but I was wrong.
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Katrina was the most costly...Not Andrew..Andrew was #2
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Deadliest_Costliest.shtml
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Quoting P451:
Ending 415pm et






That's a great loop. You must have found rapid scan. Anyway, that loop shows perfectly what I've been saying.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Robj,
Troll,
Be quiet and leave kman alone,
He probably knows much more about the tropics, and instead of trolling, standby in some of the conversation and LEARN.
and for all you that are watching Emily, I see she is starting to make her come back,
Though I think some of you r amping this system way more than she is right now.

Returning to lurking...


It wasn't addressed to anyone in particular and I'm not trolling.
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646. 7544
are we looking at a rapid reformation of emily right now
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has anyone checked the Navy to see if emily has been renumbered, i dont know why but i have a feeling its going to be upgraded soon
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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
Wasn't Andrew worse than Katrina in terms of damage?


No

Top 5 as of 2007

1KATRINA (SE FL, SE LA, MS)2005 3 $81,000,000,000
2ANDREW (SE FL/SE LA)1992 5 26,500,000,000
3WILMA (S FL)2005 3 20,600,000,000
4CHARLEY (SW FL)2004 4 15,000,000,000
5IVAN (AL/NW FL)2004 3 14,200,000,000

Link
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Quoting SQUAWK:
Wow! Check this out!




Whats this mean?
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Robj,
Troll,
Be quiet and leave kman alone,
He probably knows much more about the tropics, and instead of trolling, standby in some of the conversation and LEARN.
and for all you that are watching Emily, I see she is starting to make her come back,
Though I think some of you r amping this system way more than she is right now.

Returning to lurking...
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Quoting PcolaDan:
Just found the latest location and forecast track for Emily. (insert land mass of choice)



Yep, those are my observations,also ;/
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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
Wasn't Andrew worse than Katrina in terms of damage?


10x + Worse.. Andrew had gusts of 177 mph... Katrina 130-140 mph at landfall
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Quoting Torgen:
We need a meteorological Buffy to go out and put a stake through this thing...


LOL. I agree.
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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
Wasn't Andrew worse than Katrina in terms of damage?


Comparing Apples and Oranges, Katrina did have strong winds, but nowhere near what Andrew did. Andrew didn't have as large a storm surge as Katrina, two different storms.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814


This from Camaguey radar,Camaguey is listed at 400 feet elevation. So what level of a center would it be able to see? Low, Mid?
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Quoting FLdewey:
That is officially the creepiest handle on this blog.

Hands down.


Which one??
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Just like everyone here, I appreciate hurricanes (do not want a destructive one to hit any populated land area though). However, I think most of you over-hype everything that happens. Three nights ago, Emily was getting her act together, then nothing. Two nights ago, the same story. I think we just better wait and see a bit.
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I see Emily is trying to spoil the weekend for many with soaking rains. Hopefully that is all that will come of Part Two of this most annoying system.
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I need to take a break from this..........See Yall Later.
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Quoting SQUAWK:
Wow! Check this out!




What does this mean?
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Quoting P451:


What is a good link to the Rapid Scan imagery?

Not a direct link because they fizzle out.

Just can't seem to find one that is active.


GOES East is not in Rapid Scan Operations right now.
I don't know of a direct link, I use the build your own described here. Current one I am using

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?sat ellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23.0&lon=-78.0&zoom=1&in fo=vis&quality=100&width=800&height=600&type=Anima tion&numframes=15
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We need a meteorological Buffy to go out and put a stake through this thing...
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Sorry, make that 130 KNOTS gusting to 149 KNOTS !
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Quoting K8eCane:



What! Shes back?


Do you see the banding? Look at the Radar.... Now look to the Southeast of the "Eye" (Whole in convection, possible LLC)... Do you see the banding?
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Quoting kmanislander:


I live in Grand Cayman and I can tell you that winds here were sustained at 130 mph and gusted to 149 for several hours. See NHC report linked below. We were in the northern eye wall for a long operiod of time as the eye was centered only 25 to our South.

Link


Yeah, don't pay attention to him. He's said many ridiculous things about other violent storms the last few days.
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omg!! the ghost of emily is trying to form an eye!!!

eeek!!!! LOL!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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