Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting FromMy11YearOldSon:
TD Emily @8

WHO'S WITH ME

Bring it on!
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


I Agree with you... Could see an Upgrade at 11pm or 5am....

Look at the Structure...



n

I don't know,the way she has teased us for days,she may be pulling more tricks outta he bag
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
The Tampa Bay News Channel 9 weather reporter just said that he does not expect re-development from ex-Emily. in fact he said that there is not much left from Emily. What is he looking at ?


It's easy to take the conservative route. Seems like that is all he is doing. However, it's not like Emily is going to ramp up into a major hurricane or anything. If she can retain TS status, she will be doing good.
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Quoting P451:


That's just the regular loop I get to from http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/.

Each frame is 15 minutes a piece. Although they are usually 30 a piece from that product.

If you can link me to your imagery later thanks - just shoot me a WUMail.



_____

Showers and Storms increasing in the AOI.




Central Cuba is getting drenched!
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TD Emily @8

WHO'S WITH ME
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


I Agree with you... Could see an Upgrade at 11pm or 5am....

Look at the Structure...



n

I don't know,the way she has teased us for days,she may be pulling more tricks outta he bag
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
Cuban radar does indicate a Closed circulation , on visible images i can see the low clouds moving clockwise around the area south east of Andros island. expect a 80-90 % in the next TWO


if not a special TWO.
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

he pretty much is looking forward to the crow he may want.


maybe
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707. 7544
Quoting FSUstormnut:
I would expect the NHC not to wait too long if she gets better organized in the next few hours. Too close to land not to issue warnings for parts of southeast Florida. the 8pm TWO will be interesting.....

agree or even a speacial update befor 8pm the gap is closing unless it stalls where it is now
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Quoting MississippiWx:


OUCH! That's hot. And I've been to Panama City beach before in August. That water feels like a hot tub!
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I would expect the NHC not to wait too long if she gets better organized in the next few hours. Too close to land not to issue warnings for parts of southeast Florida. the 8pm TWO will be interesting.....
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Quoting K8eCane:



Well it sure looks like some banding going on to my untrained squinted right eye


Am i on your ignore list? :(


621. MeterologyStudent56 8:59 PM GMT on August 05, 2011 +0

Quoting K8eCane:



What! Shes back?

"Do you see the banding? Look at the Radar.... Now look to the Southeast of the "Eye" (Whole in convection, possible LLC)... Do you see the banding?"

Action: Quote | Modify Comment

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Does anyone have the link to the steering layer maps?
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699. MTWX
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Looks like there are several sources on damage. NHC version

Thanks. Info on your link is detailed. I like it!
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


I Agree with you... Could see an Upgrade at 11pm or 5am....

Look at the Structure...





Any sort of upgrade today is unlikely unless a significant improvement occurs and the NHC believes there is no doubt that she has regenerated. Tomorrow would be more probable and more along the lines of what the NHC has been thinking since she degenerated into an open wave. Remember, persistence is big when it comes to classification, not to mention needing a closed low.
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Cuban radar does indicate a Closed circulation , on visible images i can see the low clouds moving clockwise around the area south east of Andros island. expect a 80-90 % in the next TWO
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The Tampa Bay News Channel 9 weather reporter just said that he does not expect re-development from ex-Emily. in fact he said that there is not much left from Emily. What is he looking at ?
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Quoting P451:
Well, in a sense we are back to where we were with this system. An AOI that is disorganized, contending with some dry air, and possibly fighting over multiple vorticies.



*shrug*


I think there's a decent chance for regeneration. Still, just like with days past, I don't see any reason to expect a serious storm out of this right now.



Well it sure looks like some banding going on to my untrained squinted right eye
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Looks like there are several sources on damage. NHC version


That helps. tyvm!
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691. MTWX
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Looks like there are several sources on damage. NHC version

I used the one here on WU

Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
post 677 please read 644

or post 674
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Quoting P451:
Ending 415pm et






WOAH! I leave for an hour or so, and come back, and it has really begun to get its act together, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a TD or TS Emily tonight.
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Quoting BrockBerlin:
While we are in a lull of the season, can any Cayman islander validate that the airport saw 150 mph sustained winds during Hurricane Ivan?
12 / 1415 18.9 81.5 920 130 kts/150 mph
closest point of
approach, 22 n mi
south-southwest of
Georgetown, GCI

Although Ivan was weakening while the center passed south of Grand Cayman
on 12 September, the hurricane still brought sustained winds just below category 5 strength
(Table 3) to the island. This resulted in widespread wind damage, and a storm surge that
completely over swept the island except for the extreme northeastern portion.




NHC Archives
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting MississippiWx:


Right now, it's making big strides, but it's going to have to persist. It's interesting how the low clouds seem to indicate a developing closed low. We'll see if it continues. Emily still has good odds of regenerating.


I Agree with you... Could see an Upgrade at 11pm or 5am....

Look at the Structure...



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Quoting StAugustineFL:


Are those costs adjusted for inflation?


Looks like there are several sources on damage. NHC version
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Caribbean Update August 5th 2011
What's next in the tropics?
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Water temps off the coast.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Sorry, make that 130 KNOTS gusting to 149 KNOTS !


Kman..149 kn x 1.1 = 163.9 miles per hour
Yep..that was correct
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I think there is still relateable cost from Katrina to this day. Not downplaying Andrew I was here for it.
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680. 7544
if she kkeps up like this we may get a speacial update imo is she in rapid mode now
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Quoting robj144:


Is that similar to yellow snow? :)


hahahahaha,don't go where the eskimo's go,don't eat the yellow snow
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I got the feeling the circ by cuba is LLC,and the other is mid-level? how do all you guys and gals see it?


Looks like a plate of grits, getting bigger though.
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Quoting MTWX:

If you are talking total cost "damages" Katrina beat the snot out of Andrew!! $80B to $35B respectively.


Andrew was Worse... Andrew was Abnormally Smalll... Katrina was Ab-Normal Large...

Andrew was a Worse Hurricane.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
does it look likely to be regenerated


Right now, it's making big strides, but it's going to have to persist. It's interesting how the low clouds seem to indicate a developing closed low. We'll see if it continues. Emily still has good odds of regenerating.
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Umm... This thing will upgrade tonight. Mark my words.
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674. MTWX
Quoting StAugustineFL:


Are those costs adjusted for inflation?

The ones I posted are the dollar in 2000, in 2007 dollar Katrina cost $134B!! Link
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Quoting charlottefl:


Yes, Andrew was at 26B in 1992.


Yes but I guess my question is what does 26B in 1992 equate to in 2005? If that's been factored in, please ignore.
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Quoting StAugustineFL:


Are those costs adjusted for inflation?



Homestead didnt have any levees to break in Andrew...The cost of the Levees breaking was what made Katrina so much more expensive
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Talking Andrew and Katrina and which Hurricane did more damage is like talking about apples and oranges. They effected the areas they hit in a different manner. Both ended in Devastation.
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


10x + Worse.. Andrew had gusts of 177 mph... Katrina 130-140 mph at landfall


...I didn't think there was going to be math on this quiz...:/
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting StAugustineFL:


Are those costs adjusted for inflation?


Yes, Andrew was at 26B in 1992.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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