Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting reedzone:
Ems seems to be re-organizing really fast.. Looking a bit more circular and a ragged ball of convection near the suspected center. I also notice banding on the eastern side. The western side needs to get alot more organized though. dry air is impeding on the western side of the invest.



I agree. just looking at the lower level winds on the CIMSS site doesn't show any west winds.
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Quoting P451:


I propose a new one: Is Emily the remnants of Karen finally re-organized after several hundred trips around the globe?

I believe it is. Who concurs?





lol
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Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Link

Winds out of the SW South Sound, Grand Cayman
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Its going to be an intresting Night...

I remember tracking Dolly of the texas coast.... If it gets close to the gulf-stream...



Yeah it's hot down there already.

Conditions at KYWF1 as of
(5:24 pm EDT)
2124 GMT on 08/05/2011:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.92 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 90.9 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 90.1 °F
NOS Water Level Observation Network Water Level
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Comparing "cost" of Hurricane Katrina and Andrew
is not only insulting, but inaccurate. Katrina took
more then "buildings and things" away. In fact she is
still taking things away, families are still seperated,
my only grandchild, that I raised is in another state!
Katrina is the storm that keeps on taking. Andrew did
damage, and caused deaths, Katrina took over ,1.000
lives, and the water stayed in houses(some over 8ft)
for weeks! Andrew was a catastrophe,Katrina was a
tragedy that still continues after 6 years.The real
cost in in human suffering, which I know too well.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Waterspout Seven Mile beach Grand Cayman at 12:30pm today
Thats an awesome pic!
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LATEST frame on the IR shows an arc of heavy storms.. Again, Ems is getting more circular as each time passes. This isn't rapid though, just a quick re-organization. Conditions are ideal/favorable for development, with the exception of dry air.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Vorticity is still elongated and this needs to change to help in organization. That has also been one of Emily's many problems throughout her life.

she's fat with a dry cough..
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Link
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Quoting DSIjeff:
Tropical Remains Emily will likely stay such through the night.


Her Peeps call her "Ems".
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Quoting reedzone:
Ems seems to be re-organizing really fast.. Looking a bit more circular and a ragged ball of convection near the suspected center. I also notice banding on the eastern side. The western side needs to get alot more organized though. dry air is impeding on the western side of the invest.



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We need a name for this storm. We had Don of the Dead, give us something for Emily all of you creative folk.
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Quoting FSUstormnut:


well said.. very dry air on the west side.. don't think it will be easy for her to overcome... Nice blow up of convection though....
we need that convection in FL...so BRING IT!
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Vorticity is still elongated and this needs to change to help in organization. That has also been one of Emily's many problems throughout her life.

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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
"Ems"?

like Auntie Em?

You're confusing your tornados with your hurricanes.


It's been my nickname for the storm for a few days.
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Waterspout Seven Mile beach Grand Cayman at 12:30pm today
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Quoting chevycanes:
lower level winds

soo broad
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little west wind just east of the bahamas?
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Quoting reedzone:
Ems seems to be re-organizing really fast.. Looking a bit more circular and a ragged ball of convection near the suspected center. I also notice banding on the eastern side. The western side needs to get alot more organized though. dry air is impeding on the western side of the invest.



well said.. very dry air on the west side.. don't think it will be easy for her to overcome... Nice blow up of convection though....
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well
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Ems seems to be re-organizing really fast.. Looking a bit more circular and a ragged ball of convection near the suspected center. I also notice banding on the eastern side. The western side needs to get alot more organized though. dry air is impeding on the western side of the invest.

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Quoting MississippiWx:
Our suspect area is gathering organization in an area of 5kts of shear.



Its going to be an intresting Night...

I remember tracking Dolly of the texas coast.... If it gets close to the gulf-stream...

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Go here and create your own loop. Zoom in close or medium distance to get the whole picture of what's happening. What is interesting to me is that the outflow really isn't moving much. It's hard to tell shear on satellite, but the fact that the clouds with height are just slightly making an anticyclonic moition tells me that we don't have much shear at the moment.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Our suspect area is gathering organization in an area of 5kts of shear.


Suspect area? Why not call her "Ex-Emily"? LOL
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I also think Emily has a lot of things to over come before we have a TD, but she is looking much better than this morning!!!
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lower level winds

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Quoting MississippiWx:
Our suspect area is gathering organization in an area of 5kts of shear.




Hot water temps, low shear, lots of convergence, I can't see why this can't regenerate as early as tonight.
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Quoting stormtopz1:
850mb vorticity map. Note just north of central Cuba.



Its elongated, so its quite clear development won't take place today.
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729. 996tt
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Yes Katrina was 1# in total Damage because it was large and affected a larger area..... but in terms of strength... and Pure destruction... Andrew takes the Cake.


Disagree. Sounds like you are comparing damage to New Orleans. The brute force of the storm hit Mississippi. Everything was flattended to the foundations and draged 1/2 mile to a mile in shore. Cars were literally in the tops of trees 1/2 mile to mile in shore as the debris pile was finally stopped by a tree line in certain areas and stacked 30 feet high. Trees gone between the shore and debris line. Some bad quality pictures of this in my album. Thge picture is showing the foundation where a 3 and 4 story condo strip used to be.
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Quoting FSUstormnut:
I would expect the NHC not to wait too long if she gets better organized in the next few hours. Too close to land not to issue warnings for parts of southeast Florida. the 8pm TWO will be interesting.....
Ya...getting caught off guard suck. Irene did that to me back in 99...forecast to drop to TS as it passed over the west coast of FL. NOT...Cat 1 moves east and exits into the Atlantic in Northern Palm Beach County. None us us were prepared in SE FL and she kinda kicked our ass. I think Emily still has some hurdles to overcome. We will see.
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Our suspect area is gathering organization in an area of 5kts of shear.

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check out the visible floater and click "wind".. proof there is something going on at the surface. Look at the directions in Florida, Florida Key's and Cuba. Very interesting....
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850mb vorticity map. Note just north of central Cuba.

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convergence and divergence getting even stronger. looks like just SE of Andros Island will be the spot to watch.



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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Katrina was #1 total damage cost not andrew...says clearly post 644 or 674.


Yes Katrina was 1# in total Damage because it was large and affected a larger area..... but in terms of strength... and Pure destruction... Andrew takes the Cake.
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722. 996tt
Quoting CorneliaMarie:
Thank you for validating that Andrew was worse than Katrina.


Depends on where you were. Biloxi was leveled. Never seen anything quit like that. Nothing but foundations left well into shore. Cars and trucks were washed into tree tops stacked on 30 and 40 foot mounds of debris 1/2 mile. So much attention on new Orleans, the smaller places that received catostrophic damage did not get much publicity. I know of people who could not return for 1 oe 2 years later because there was no infrastructure even if you had a house to go to.
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A dip in the hot tub anyone?

Winds: SW 5 Knots becoming S 5 Knots during the Afternoon

Seas: 1 Foot

State: Smooth


Current Water Temperature: 90 Degrees


Sabine Pass Tides - Saturday 8/06/2011

High Tides: 8:06AM

Low Tides: 3:14AM, 4:12PM
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Quoting P451:


That's just the regular loop I get to from http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/.

Each frame is 15 minutes a piece. Although they are usually 30 a piece from that product.

If you can link me to your imagery later thanks - just shoot me a WUMail.



_____

Showers and Storms increasing in the AOI.




Well, that IS rapid scan. LOL. Sometimes, they will update ever 8-10 minutes.
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Quoting FromMy11YearOldSon:
TD Emily @8

WHO'S WITH ME

Bring it on!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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