Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
18z GFS 84 hours...

Consistently developing a very vigorous tropical wave in 48-72 hours. Would be nice to have support from the ECMWF.


Not 100% sure its the same wave, but if you loop the 12z ECMWF it does appear although develop a system from the wave the GFS is developing and a wave behind it mesh together to form a system, which is why we see development much later in the time frame.
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:
so the trof by north carolina gonna pull all those vortices from emily north and northeast? Is that still the models game plan?
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The steering flow may not be aimed NNW from appearances, but the weakness between the two ridges is NNW of Emily. Her very shallow nature at the moment could result in a more westerly track than the dynamic models which strengthen her too fast, but I don't think across or west of Florida. If a landfall is made by the low pressure area, it should follow the logic outlined earlier this week, and travel up a portion of the state and then get curved back out.

It should also be noted that the global models do not strengthen Emily much at all and still curve her out right off the bat east of Florida, so the weakness is still very pronounced. The track logic from the last week should still hold here.
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Emily is starting to look better. Thunderstorms have grown closer to the low; mainly to the east. I wouldn't be surprise to see 70% or 80% at 7 PM

Link
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ROTFLMAO, that's her!!

Quoting PcolaDan:


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Quoting DSIjeff:
Isn't it obvious?

She will be twice born: TS Em & Em.


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Stormpetrol- Nice pic of the water spout a few posts back.My wife phoned me from her office,while they were watching it during lunch
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Quoting P451:
Poor Texas....

Ten Days of Texas






====




It just sucks living under that. It just goes on and on and on...it wears you down. This has been the most tedious and stressful "Disaster" I have been in. Water Restrictions, Lakes at very low levels or just dry, expensive foundation repair,rolling black outs and these HOT days that just don't let up. I keep looking for an end to all of this and there is no end in sight! Look what it did to poor old Don!
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DMIN? Could be a long night lol..
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Quoting charlottefl:


DMIN? Could be a long night lol..
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Sigh...if you could loop the last 10 months it would probably look just like that. ;)
That is not funny! LOL, in Texas you have to have a great sense of humor just to survive. My daughter has gone from Record Heat in Texas to record heat in Iraq, i think she is a heat magnet. Please send something tropical to Texas soon.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
196

WHXX04 KWBC 051749

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY 05L

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 21.9 76.8 325./15.9

6 22.4 77.6 304./ 8.8

12 23.5 78.1 332./11.2

18 24.6 78.6 339./12.7

24 25.8 78.8 352./11.7

30 27.3 78.3 17./15.2

36 28.7 77.8 20./15.3

42 30.2 76.7 37./16.9

48 31.6 75.0 50./20.1

54 32.7 73.0 62./20.3

60 33.6 70.7 67./21.5

66 34.3 68.2 75./21.8

72 34.6 65.5 84./22.3

78 34.8 63.2 85./19.5

84 34.8 60.8 90./19.2

90 34.9 58.9 86./15.6

96 35.6 57.6 61./12.9

102 36.7 56.7 42./13.1

108 37.9 55.9 31./13.7

114 39.3 55.2 29./14.7

120 40.7 54.4 28./15.4

126 42.3 53.4 35./17.5
so its been upgraded ???
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DMIN?
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196

WHXX04 KWBC 051749

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY 05L

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 21.9 76.8 325./15.9

6 22.4 77.6 304./ 8.8

12 23.5 78.1 332./11.2

18 24.6 78.6 339./12.7

24 25.8 78.8 352./11.7

30 27.3 78.3 17./15.2

36 28.7 77.8 20./15.3

42 30.2 76.7 37./16.9

48 31.6 75.0 50./20.1

54 32.7 73.0 62./20.3

60 33.6 70.7 67./21.5

66 34.3 68.2 75./21.8

72 34.6 65.5 84./22.3

78 34.8 63.2 85./19.5

84 34.8 60.8 90./19.2

90 34.9 58.9 86./15.6

96 35.6 57.6 61./12.9

102 36.7 56.7 42./13.1

108 37.9 55.9 31./13.7

114 39.3 55.2 29./14.7

120 40.7 54.4 28./15.4

126 42.3 53.4 35./17.5
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I think the statistical models have a good handle on this system seeing how it is so shallow. Now it's a different story if it were to RI, but I'm not buying the dynamic models solutions with the current steering flow at the lower levels.
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Quoting DSIjeff:
Isn't it obvious?

She will be twice born: TS Em & Em.
Obvious? Here? Surly you jest young man.
Mid 70's here today, but humidity is rising and should be pretty damp through the weekend.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
POSS T.C.F.W.
05L/INV/REM LOW
MARK
23.65N/76.29W


24.2N 78.2W
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looks to be moving west or west north west,not north,at least to me,but im and old man with bad eyes.
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Quoting red0:
Local mets are forecasting the high pressure ridge of doom to retrograde back towards the southern rockies by the middle of next week. Lower temperatures in the midwest for sure.Looks like a lot of the 100 degree streaks will be ending.

This would mean 1 part of the fabled US hurricane shield is at least temporarily down, right? A GOM storm would head north instead of west into mexico.
Ain't going to happen.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
Quoting Patrap:
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Emily
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)







What the hell is that model coming by me and u pat!
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840. red0
Local mets are forecasting the high pressure ridge of doom to retrograde back towards the southern rockies by the middle of next week. Lower temperatures in the midwest for sure.Looks like a lot of the 100 degree streaks will be ending.

This would mean 1 part of the fabled US hurricane shield is at least temporarily down, right? A GOM storm would head north instead of west into mexico.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Her Peeps call her "Ems".


That made me LOL.
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I saw a Storm today, O boy.........
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
Quoting P451:
Poor Texas....

Ten Days of Texas






====

Link to Direct Imagery: 10-day WV Loop of North America.

*WARNING* System Intensive Loop - SAVE ALL WORK FIRST *WARNING*

10-day NA Loop - WV Imagery - 90 minutes per frame


Sigh...if you could loop the last 10 months it would probably look just like that. ;)
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Quoting NewBdoBdo:
How bout Emme-lies


Okay I love this name. Let's keep it.
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Miami Radar Long Range,Def some spin,turning going on
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The flow definitely ain't NNW:(Here is for a TS)



And here is for a Cat 3/4:



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How bout Emme-lies
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POSS T.C.F.W.
05L/INV/REM LOW
MARK
23.65N/76.29W
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Pat,

Post 810 shows the spawning of huge mutant Dry Air Cape Cod
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I disagree with Masters

I continue to believe that Emily is headed for the GOM. The current location is in the South West Bahamas and the thunderstorms are moving towards the GOM. If "Emily" does go out to sea than she is going to have to make a pretty substantial turn.

So far the only thing I didn't foresee with this storm was the "dissipation" but the encounter with the mountains of Hispaniola probably had a lot to do with that.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
18z GFS 84 hours...

Consistently developing a very vigorous tropical wave in 48-72 hours. Would be nice to have support from the ECMWF.
Pretty impressive.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
have fun everyone... i'll be back later...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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