Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting Levi32:
At this point it's Florida hoping for some rain. No real dangers here with ex-Emily. Significant development, if it's going to occur, likely won't be until after it's moving away from Florida.


yep for sure. Even if it doesn't bring Florida rain, there will be plenty more on the way without this system. Its just after such a bad drought early in the year, any extra rain is very beneficial.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
196

WHXX04 KWBC 051749

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY 05L

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 21.9 76.8 325./15.9

6 22.4 77.6 304./ 8.8

12 23.5 78.1 332./11.2

18 24.6 78.6 339./12.7

24 25.8 78.8 352./11.7

30 27.3 78.3 17./15.2

36 28.7 77.8 20./15.3

42 30.2 76.7 37./16.9

48 31.6 75.0 50./20.1

54 32.7 73.0 62./20.3

60 33.6 70.7 67./21.5

66 34.3 68.2 75./21.8

72 34.6 65.5 84./22.3

78 34.8 63.2 85./19.5

84 34.8 60.8 90./19.2

90 34.9 58.9 86./15.6

96 35.6 57.6 61./12.9

102 36.7 56.7 42./13.1

108 37.9 55.9 31./13.7

114 39.3 55.2 29./14.7

120 40.7 54.4 28./15.4

126 42.3 53.4 35./17.5
Calling for it to go north and east
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Back after work.
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Quoting weatherman12345:
i love how everyone is on the beach just watching it
I bet if it had come on land they would have all run for cover. My grand-daughter sent me a picture because I work at the East End of the island and this was on the West End.
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At this point it's Florida hoping for some rain. No real dangers here with ex-Emily. Significant development, if it's going to occur, likely won't be until after it's moving away from Florida.
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High Seas Forecast

Excerpt:

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC LOW NEAR 23N78W 1011 MB...REMNANTS OF EMILY...MOVING NW
14 KT WITH TROUGH NE TO 27N73W. S OF 27N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W
SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. S OF 24N BETWEEN 65W
AND 68W E TO SE WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 27N
W OF 69W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 27N79W
1010 MB WITH TRAILING TROUGH TO 24N80W. N OF 25N BETWEEN 73W AND
79W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. N OF 25N BETWEEN
70W AND 73W S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. S OF
25N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W E TO SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 31N76W
1010 MB WITH TRAILING TROUGH TO 26N79W. WITHIN 240 NM SE QUADRANT
OF LOW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. N OF 28N BETWEEN
67W AND 72W SW TO W WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

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I suspect all the thunderstorms are a result of daytime heating. There is no real organization going on. Dry air is surrounding the circulation. Seems like a long shot to regenerate.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


It's not a model like you are thinking. It shows what direction the storms moving in now. And where it would go if it continued in a strait line without factoring in any steering like breaks in ridges, fronts, things like that.
kool cuz i was thinking the unthinkable could happen. Hope no storm gets in the GOM.
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Looks like all the bad stuff is to the northeast of Emily , so even if she skirts Florida at this point, we'd be lucky to get rain ?
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Alls well here,hope all is there
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
906. Skyepony (Mod)
Flooding In Charlotte Prompts Evacuations, Motorist Rescues

By the CNN Wire Staff


Posted: 12:15 pm PDT August 5, 2011Updated: 1:15 pm PDT August 5, 2011
(CNN) -- Massive flash flooding Friday prompted rescue operations of trapped motorists and the evacuation of at least two neighborhoods in Charlotte, North Carolina, authorities said.

Charlotte Fire Department spokesman Capt. Robert Brisley said the city received three inches of rain, with more in some places. The fire department was evacuating two neighborhoods next to flooded creeks near downtown, he said.

Brisley said authorities and responders were carrying out at least 16 rescues of persons trapped in flooded vehicles.

The city was under a flash-flood watch.

Jennifer Frost, spokeswoman for Charlotte-Mecklenburg Storm Water Services, said rain began to fall about lunch time; one gauge registered about 5 to 6 inches about mid-afternoon.

In her nine years of working in the area, Frost said she "never seen anything like this before."

"It came down very fast," she added. "It got so dark downtown, it looked like night."

Parts of Interstate highways 77, 485 and 85 were flooded and temporarily shut down during the storm, she said.

One hotel lobby interior was turned into a waterfall as heavy rain accumulated on the roof and poured through the lobby's light fixtures, forcing the collapse of a desktop-sized section of the ceiling, according to one hotel visitor who shared his video of the spectacle with CNN.
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Quoting Patrap:
Eye's hates da heat..


Eyes do too, Pat.....all ok with you and yours ?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Did you see the picture with the huge waterspout off West Bay today ?Link

O_O That is just amazing.
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Quoting DSIjeff:


It is just a straight-line projection that assumes current heading.

Not a model, but very straight to the point.


It's the Occam's razor of (not) models.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
She hasnt been following any of the rules.... lol
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I'm out for a while. Emily's remnants still have a ways to go before they can be reclassified, but it's take the right steps. Shear has really lessened, but it still needs to consolidate its center.

Regardless of strength, she's not going into the Gulf. If someway she does, it's for a split second and that's stretching it.
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My original guess for final landfall with Emily was the Panhandle of Florida. I thought that would be a lucky off the top of my head guess but I might be right afterall.
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Quoting DSIjeff:


It is just a straight-line projection that assumes current heading.

Not a model, but very straight to the point.
oh okay i was getting worried
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Don't pay attention to this trouble maker, either hes out of his mind or hes only here to make trouble, don't pay attention to him. Seriously guys.
When I saw his comment it got me really p@#$ed off. We lived through it and what is the sense in trying to exaggerate wind speed , damages etc.
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Quoting FromMy11YearOldSon:
We need a name for this storm. We had Don of the Dead, give us something for Emily all of you creative folk.


Emily II: REMILY. She's back, and this time she's stacked!
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Quoting Jedkins01:


The simple models have done better the entire track of Emily then the dynamic ones. Funny indeed.


Actually that is far from true lol. All of the models have had a bad bias or swinging motion the entire time.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
is that a major model or one of the weaker models


It's not a model like you are thinking. It shows what direction the storms moving in now. And where it would go if it continued in a strait line without factoring in any steering like breaks in ridges, fronts, things like that.
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Eye's hates da heat..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Quoting Patrap:


Looks west to me
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Quoting Levi32:
The steering flow may not be aimed NNW from appearances, but the weakness between the two ridges is NNW of Emily. Her very shallow nature at the moment could result in a more westerly track than the dynamic models which strengthen her too fast, but I don't think across or west of Florida. If a landfall is made by the low pressure area, it should follow the logic outlined earlier this week, and travel up a portion of the state and then get curved back out.

It should also be noted that the global models do not strengthen Emily much at all and still curve her out right off the bat east of Florida, so the weakness is still very pronounced. The track logic from the last week should still hold here.


The simple models have done better the entire track of Emily then the dynamic ones. Funny indeed.
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Quoting Patrap:
Pat did you see that the high could move right back over us again on thursday. Heat advisories will be back up strongly again.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
so the trof by north carolina gonna pull all those vortices from emily north and northeast? Is that still the models game plan?


Well, right now she still has a mind of her own and doesn't want to go with the flow...lol...IMHO
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Does anyone have a forward speed on this?
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LOL
You have to be yanking our chain, right?

Quoting bigwes6844:
is that a major model or one of the weaker models
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
That is not funny! LOL, in Texas you have to have a great sense of humor just to survive. My daughter has gone from Record Heat in Texas to record heat in Iraq, i think she is a heat magnet. Please send something tropical to Texas soon.


Give her our best and we will be praying for her. Tell her Thanks from all of us!
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Quoting Levi32:
The steering flow may not be aimed NNW from appearances, but the weakness between the two ridges is NNW of Emily. Her very shallow nature at the moment could result in a more westerly track than the dynamic models which strengthen her too fast, but I don't think across or west of Florida. If a landfall is made by the low pressure area, it should follow the logic outlined earlier this week, and travel up a portion of the state and then get curved back out.

It should also be noted that the global models do not strengthen Emily much at all and still curve her out right off the bat east of Florida, so the weakness is still very pronounced. The track logic from the last week should still hold here.


By now I am not buying the models saying she will "curve" since she has been a westward storm from the beginning. SHe is so close to Florida now that she might as well move a bit more west and be sitting over the state.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Did you see the picture with the huge waterspout off West Bay today ?Link
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Quoting lucreto:


No chance those were bogus measurements the Cayman islands saw 110 sustained winds at most during Ivan.


Don't pay attention to this trouble maker, either hes out of his mind or hes only here to make trouble, don't pay attention to him. Seriously guys.
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Quoting P451:





XTRP looking to rock NOLA... HARD!





Link to model descriptions.
is that a major model or one of the weaker models
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Quoting wolftribe2009:


I am saying the same thing. My question would be if the storm does get into the GOM: How strong would she get? If she hugs the coast than I figure she would be a weak TS but if she headed towards Louisiana or Deep South Texas than she could be a problem. The High Looks to be backing off.


The high won't back away near far enough for that to happen. Besides, the weakness to the NW of her isn't going to allow anything else.
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The Center is 128.8 nm from the Miami Radar Site to the SE...
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
looks to be moving west or west north west,not north,at least to me,but im and old man with bad eyes.


I am saying the same thing. My question would be if the storm does get into the GOM: How strong would she get? If she hugs the coast than I figure she would be a weak TS but if she headed towards Louisiana or Deep South Texas than she could be a problem. The High Looks to be backing off.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
That is not funny! LOL, in Texas you have to have a great sense of humor just to survive. My daughter has gone from Record Heat in Texas to record heat in Iraq, i think she is a heat magnet. Please send something tropical to Texas soon.


I dunno know if that would work. Texas killed Don! ;)
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Quoting wolftribe2009:
Emily is starting to look better. Thunderstorms have grown closer to the low; mainly to the east. I wouldn't be surprise to see 70% or 80% at 7 PM

Link


The low is most likely right under the convection at this point.
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7PM, giving away which time zone you are in!

Quoting wolftribe2009:
Emily is starting to look better. Thunderstorms have grown closer to the low; mainly to the east. I wouldn't be surprise to see 70% or 80% at 7 PM

Link
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870. txjac
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
That is not funny! LOL, in Texas you have to have a great sense of humor just to survive. My daughter has gone from Record Heat in Texas to record heat in Iraq, i think she is a heat magnet. Please send something tropical to Texas soon.


May your daughter stay safe. She'll be in my prayers as the rest of the troups are
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
18z GFS 84 hours...

Consistently developing a very vigorous tropical wave in 48-72 hours. Would be nice to have support from the ECMWF.


Not 100% sure its the same wave, but if you loop the 12z ECMWF it does appear although develop a system from the wave the GFS is developing and a wave behind it mesh together to form a system, which is why we see development much later in the time frame.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23663

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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