Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Nothing I can see, aside from the fact that we probably won't see the explicit mention of a tropical depression.


Previous one
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
What does this say about the upcoming TWO?


Nothing I can see, aside from the fact that we probably won't see the explicit mention of a tropical depression.
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What does this say about the upcoming TWO?
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Quoting FrankZapper:
An expert said the Texas drought will get worse this fall and winter with the return of La Nino.


La Nina* :P
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Quoting DVG:
Looking at the Key West radar, the center of spin appears to be due south of Miami.
Its not far from it to the East some.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
An expert said the Texas drought will get worse this fall and winter with the return of La Nino.
La Nina or El Nino
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Quoting kmanislander:


I assume you are talking about that waterspout today ?. That was awesome and very large, the largest I have ever seen. The police were out on Harbour Drive near my office telling drivers to move on. Everyone had stopped to watch it.

Luckily it headed out to sea.
They said it lasted for 15-20 minutes. People were still out there in kayaks.
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Rule #1 - Here they are never really truly sincerely dead. OR

#2 - They're never really most sincerely dead.

As coroner, I must concur, that she's ... to be, if she ...

Red smoke, flash of green ...

"screaming munchkins"



Looks like West We Go, for the remnants of the Witch of the East.
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961. DVG
Looking at the Key West radar, the center of spin appears to be due south of Miami.
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Quoting NavarreMark:


So the Coc is at the mid level? Wheres it gonna go from there?
If you're looking for development I'd think it would have to go down.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Yeah you guys cant even get a break. Is there any relief in sight? We just got a hard and heavy storm around me at 3 today and its still raining. I wish you guys could get some of it too.
An expert said the Texas drought will get worse this fall and winter with the return of La Nino.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


She is currently on the path of the NHC's last track.


She is currently where the NHC placed her from the first track. She did not get there on the exact track they had, but place/time is pretty close.
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Quoting P451:


Cyclones can "jump north" in that region. I haven't watched due to being busy but I thought her primary LLC ended up between Cuba and Jamaica and dissipated.

I thought the "new llc" we are watching between Cuba and Andros is a new center - a "jump" (which is just a reformation.

It's a common occurrence. The system encounters Hispaniola. The primary LLC dissipates to the south. A new LLC forms to the north of the landmass and convection builds around it. The system "lives on" but continues a generally westward motion.




YES I seem to remember that Fay jumped over western Cuba?
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Quoting Patrap:
looks like its trying to form a center just south of the island and it still looks WEST
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Lol.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
308 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2011

ACADIANA REALLY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
TWO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVES. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...ONLY
CARRYING 20 PERCENT POPS FOR ACADIANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OTHERWISE...NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND HOT PERIOD.
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Quoting wolftribe2009:


Yeah she turn slightly north of west but only cause she wanted to. Yet the "Northward" turn most are talking about would have put her north of the bahamas by now


She is currently on the path of the NHC's last track.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


I posted it earlier today, kinda amazing, My Dad and I got in one back in 1990, barely made it ashore, I rarely have been out boating since :(


I assume you are talking about that waterspout today ?. That was awesome and very large, the largest I have ever seen. The police were out on Harbour Drive near my office telling drivers to move on. Everyone had stopped to watch it.

Luckily it headed out to sea.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


If the LLC had continued WNW it would currently be over western Cuba.
Not when it started the turn from NNW.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Em, it did turn.


Yeah she turn slightly north of west but only cause she wanted to. Yet the "Northward" turn most are talking about would have put her north of the bahamas by now
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I appreciate the thought. :) One of my local TV METS was asked when there might be a break in all this and he hollered across the studio, "OCTOBER!" Lol. But seriously there doesn't look to be a break in the heat or dryness in the next seven days at least.
Lol october i doubt that hopefully this month and i feel you guys will get a relief real soon.
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Quoting NEFLWATCHING:
"Calling for it to go north and east"

Since we have no more TS Emily, perhaps this is BS Emily...
Or maybe the SS Emily....putting out the old SOS.
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per Tropical Atlantic: Wave Emily is moving WNW or 302 Degrees at 22mph for the last 12 hours. The low is going to hit Fl.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I bet if it had come on land they would have all run for cover. My grand-daughter sent me a picture because I work at the East End of the island and this was on the West End.


I posted it earlier today, kinda amazing, My Dad and I got in one back in 1990, barely made it ashore, I rarely have been out boating since :(
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Quoting portcharlotte:
I might be wrong but the LLC went wnw thru the pass. The decoupled mid level went north but the important LLC is what we are looking at now.
nid


If the LLC had continued WNW it would currently be over western Cuba.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, believe what you want to believe. I'll go with science and what the steering is supposed to be. Out until later.


I agree with you and that is why I keep sticking to my forecast. It is westward into the GOM and if she turns NE then in the GOm I will be satisfied because I will expect that but not a turn anytime sooner.
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Hi Folks

Emily Part 2 is starting to look very interesting on satellite but still needs to consolidate a lot more to fully regenerate. The 850 vorticity is spread out over quite a large swath from Cuba to over the Bahamas
and it will take some time for things to gel so to speak.

Shear is favourable in the direction the low is moving and the odds of becoming a TC once more may be upgraded later. I would give it 70% right now.
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If Ex Emily had gone due west she be around Belize.
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I might be wrong but the LLC went wnw thru the pass. The decoupled mid level went north but the important LLC is what we are looking at now.
nid
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


How did it get north of the deforested mountains of Hispanola then?
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Well, right now she still has a mind of her own and doesn't want to go with the flow...lol...IMHO


lol,she def has that
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Quoting portcharlotte:
I know it will eventually go north but let's go back on all the talk about this weakness. The weakness has been there for days and all the time this storm has not headed for the weakness. Then the weakness would be filled by a bridging high etc. This storm has never cared about the weakness and I am tired of hearing about the expected turn!






How did it get north of the deforested mountains of Hispanola then?
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting portcharlotte:
I know it will eventually go north but let's go back on all the talk about this weakness. The weakness has been there for days and all the time this storm has not headed for the weakness. Then the weakness would be filled by a bridging high etc. This storm has never cared about the weakness and I am tired of hearing about the expected turn!






Em, it did turn.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Yeah you guys cant even get a break. Is there any relief in sight? We just got a hard and heavy storm around me at 3 today and its still raining. I wish you guys could get some of it too.


I appreciate the thought. :) One of my local TV METS was asked when there might be a break in all this and he hollered across the studio, "OCTOBER!" Lol. But seriously there doesn't look to be a break in the heat or dryness in the next seven days at least.
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Quoting wolftribe2009:


I am saying the same thing. My question would be if the storm does get into the GOM: How strong would she get? If she hugs the coast than I figure she would be a weak TS but if she headed towards Louisiana or Deep South Texas than she could be a problem. The High Looks to be backing off.


Man I do not know. I thought Emily would make it into the GOM, Barely,and then turn north and landfall on the lower SW Florida coast,say from north of the keys to Ft Myers,and then cut NE back across florida and out to sea. There's been a lot of trof modeling bringing it close to Florida and then north and east,caused by the trof's effects.There's a lot of guys in here way above my pay grade when it comes to hurricanes and Im sure they will be glad to help ya with any questions.
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Thank-You!

You analyze all you want until your eyes are burning but sometimes one needs to look at real time and discard the models...The models are not god and the NHC forecasters are not god either.




Quoting wolftribe2009:
People keep looking at the "models" and noticing the "re-curving effect" of the track. Yet, they fail to realize that the "turn" is just a product of the "troughs" and the "Models" wanting to have them pick up Emily. Most forecasters trust the modes too much and throw out logical conclusion.

However, none of these models have taken into account the "westward motion" that Emily has taken throughout her entire journey. The latest dynamical models also have me skeptical. I believe they all want to curve the storm but probably too soon. All the models keep forecasting a turn and Emily keeps proving them wrong.

If you started south east of the Caribbean and looked at every model run it would show you something. ALL the models were forecasting a turn in every run but it never happened. Emily kept moving west and is almost right on top of South Florida which is why I ask this: Why do we still think she will turn north east, When she has refused to do so her entire life?

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
POSS T.C.F.W.
05L/XX/XX
MARK
23.65N/76.29W
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Quoting portcharlotte:
I know it will eventually go north but let's go back on all the talk about this weakness. The weakness has been there for days and all the time this storm has not headed for the weakness. Then the weakness would be filled by a bridging high etc. This storm has never cared about the weakness and I am tired of hearing about the expected turn!






Well, believe what you want to believe. I'll go with science and what the steering is supposed to be. Out until later.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I hear ya. I used to want a tropical storm to bring Texas some rain. But after the Demise of Don. I'm not sure I want to see what kind of tropical entity would actually make it through the ridge! Lol.
Yeah you guys cant even get a break. Is there any relief in sight? We just got a hard and heavy storm around me at 3 today and its still raining. I wish you guys could get some of it too.
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People keep looking at the "models" and noticing the "re-curving effect" of the track. Yet, they fail to realize that the "turn" is just a product of the "troughs" and the "Models" wanting to have them pick up Emily. Most forecasters trust the modes too much and throw out logical conclusion.

However, none of these models have taken into account the "westward motion" that Emily has taken throughout her entire journey. The latest dynamical models also have me skeptical. I believe they all want to curve the storm but probably too soon. All the models keep forecasting a turn and Emily keeps proving them wrong.

If you started south east of the Caribbean and looked at every model run it would show you something. ALL the models were forecasting a turn in every run but it never happened. Emily kept moving west and is almost right on top of South Florida which is why I ask this: Why do we still think she will turn north east, When she has refused to do so her entire life?

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I know it will eventually go north but let's go back on all the talk about this weakness. The weakness has been there for days and all the time this storm has not headed for the weakness. Then the weakness would be filled by a bridging high etc. This storm has never cared about the weakness and I am tired of hearing about the expected turn!




Quoting MississippiWx:


The high won't back away near far enough for that to happen. Besides, the weakness to the NW of her isn't going to allow anything else.
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Quoting NEFLWATCHING:
"Calling for it to go north and east"

Since we have no more TS Emily, perhaps this is BS Emily...


LOLOL...Now that's the best name yet....:)
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Quoting bigwes6844:
kool cuz i was thinking the unthinkable could happen. Hope no storm gets in the GOM.


I hear ya. I used to want a tropical storm to bring Texas some rain. But after the Demise of Don. I'm not sure I want to see what kind of tropical entity would actually make it through the ridge! Lol.
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"Calling for it to go north and east"

Since we have no more TS Emily, perhaps this is BS Emily...
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Quoting Levi32:
At this point it's Florida hoping for some rain. No real dangers here with ex-Emily. Significant development, if it's going to occur, likely won't be until after it's moving away from Florida.


yep for sure. Even if it doesn't bring Florida rain, there will be plenty more on the way without this system. Its just after such a bad drought early in the year, any extra rain is very beneficial.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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