Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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4117. Thrawst
Quoting nigel20:
What are the models predicting over the next two weeks?


A lot. Particularly concerned with the GFS model though, what it shows.
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4115. nymore
Quoting IKE:

Wiggling in the ATL. Day 7 for her soon.......
Emily is in Atlanta
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politics and religion
2 ban-able offenses in here
seen it many times before
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Quoting emcf30:

No
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


Thanks Keith =)


Good to have you here Angel.thanks for your input.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Quoting nigel20:
What are the models predicting over the next two weeks?


NHC/TAFB has a "nice"-looking storm east of the Bahamas and north of the Caribbean going into next week.
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4109. nigel20
Quoting IceCoast:
Noticed Vertical Instability has been pretty low compared to average.

Whats the cause of this?
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Quoting angiest:


A chance of our first CV storm soon?


It's looking like it. GFS has been pretty consistent on trying to spin something up. Would like to see the Euro jump on board.
Regardless, the next two waves look good and i'd be surprised if one of them doesn't give us Franklin.
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Noticed Vertical Instability has been pretty low compared to average.
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4101. nigel20
What are the models predicting over the next two weeks?
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4100. IKE

Quoting DSIjeff:
Emily moving?
Wiggling in the ATL. Day 7 for her soon.......
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Quoting BahaHurican:



Thank you Baha and that is exactly what I was trying to say.
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4097. ackee
I would love to know which area OF the US AND CARRB seem most at risk when we have a Negative NAO
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4096. angiest
Quoting IceCoast:




A chance of our first CV storm soon?
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4095. IKE

Quoting deaddude21:

Definitely not our credit rating...lol. A permanant stain on Obama's resume, agreed?
probably......
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4093. nigel20
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Quoting deaddude21:

Great explanation my friend! Also, don't forget Ivan.


And unusually strong high-pressure ridges steered Andrew into Homestead in '92 and Frances and Jeanne into Palm Beach/Martin counties in '04.
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Quoting caneswatch:


Slidell is not part of NOLA. Just saying.

If you're ordered to evacuate for a Cat. 5, would you? I personally doubt you would.
But then that would save us having to read his posts and quotes of his posts...

Just sayin'....
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Quoting IKE:

I do too....but.....take frequent walks outside after divulging.

................................................. .................................................. .....
Quoting leelee75k:
huh? west broward is in nebraska?

this blog gets stranger and stranger every year.
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


LOL!!! Yep!


I know we all appreciate it..LOL I have to plead guilty of having to do the same. Love the deviled eggs; but they don't love me back.
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4085. angiest


If the one line Emily is sitting in were to snap, she would immediately be slung up to Canada.
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4084. Patrap


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4082. 7544
emily jogging sw now /?
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4081. IKE

Quoting angiest:


The sky.
lol. Gas prices. Especially after deviled eggs...raisins and pork and beans.
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Emily regenerated? I'm lost XD
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Quoting hurricane23:


Took the full 150+ brunt in florida city. Thankfully storms like this dont come to our shores that often.
Word.

Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
They changed our forecast today from 20% chance of rain to 40%....we didn't receive anything....blue skies for the most past all day
I'd say best chances for rainfall with this thing are between midnight and 5 a.m....

Quoting NOLALawyer:


I think the sympathy meter would peg higher if you showed what a storm can do to those living in poverty, in comparison to showing huge estates that are probably second or even third homes of the rich down in the Caymans.

I lived on South Beach when Andrew struck. I went down to Cutler Ridge and Homestead, and even could have worked down there had I chosen. It was unreal. Of course, that was one year in the last 23 that I have not resided in New Orleans.

I really don't think she's trying for the sympathy metre, NOLA.... she's trying to make the point that these are people's homes - prolly some of the best built in the basin - brought to nothing by a cat 5. And there are lots of permanent Caymanians....

In the Bahamas, we've got every kind of resident you can think of on the financial scale. Some of the richest people in the world maintain homes at Lyford Cay or on one of the other islands surrounding New Providence. At the other end of the scale we have people who still live in 4 room "clapboard" houses - picturesque, but not designed to withstand Cat 5 winds. When a storm hits, it doesn't just pick the rich or poor people's houses to destroy. EVERYBODY is impacted. So my Caymanian sister is just trying to emphasise there's no fun to this.

Quoting angiest:


Surely you superimposed a picture of Marco over Florida there.
Nope. Got it from Nasa Interactive Site...

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4076. angiest
Quoting nigel20:
Whats up everyone?


The sky.
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Quoting jonelu:
Looks like the rain is staying off shore...we still have yet to see a drop in WPB.


As I said, I was hopeful . . . really disappointing.
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Quoting DSIjeff:
DOOM:CON Imagery:

It is kind of funny that different images make the systems look a lot worse than they actually are. Anyway, Grand Cayman received a nice shower from the trough Emily left behind a short while ago.
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I finally put our resident (soon to be) Psychologist on ignore.

Geeze – what are they teaching in college now days?
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4071. nigel20
Whats up everyone?
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Quoting DFWjc:


Once again PcolaDan you are right!!


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Quoting IKE:

I do too....but.....take frequent walks outside after divulging.

................................................. .................................................. .....




LOL!!! Yep!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.