Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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It also includes storm surge, but it's generic, not storm specific:

It's obviously an old graphic, because it has Andrew as a 4 still.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:

No.

You asked which storm did more damage. The answer is Katrina.



Yes, but the fact of the matter is, it didn't.


Katrina was a stronger hurricane during her lifetime than Andrew. They both maxed at 175 MPH winds, but Katrina's pressure was 20 mbs lower. At landfall, Andrew was a stronger storm, but Katrina did more damage/destruction, which is what the original question asked.



Wrong.

The question did not ask which storm was more intense at landfall, it asked which storm did more damage, which is Katrina by far. Katrina's cost was twice as much as Andrew's (adjusted for inflation), she submerged 80% of NOLA, she claimed over 50 times as many lives as Andrew did, and she damaged way, way more many buildings and houses. Not only that, but she emotionally damaged the entire city of New Orleans as well.

As far as damage is concerned (which is what the question asked), Katrina was a far worse storm. End of story.


Very good post. If if's and but's were candy and nuts...
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Quoting Levi32:


The damage that a hurricane can do to your house is directly correlated to its maximum wind speed.
Winds aren't the only part of a hurricane which cause destruction. The NHC admits this and has even considered changing the Saffir-Simpson scale.
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Emily looks better than she's ever looked, ventilation wise. The tube has finally made touch down, and she's begun to suck in air from the bottom like a Dyson vacuum cleaner.


Welp lets hope her cyclone technology does not trap objects in excess of 1400G's.
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1013. IKE
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
Hi everyone, I've been out for a bit. Can someone update me on what's happened since post 995?
I washed some dishes and poured a glass of wine.
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1012. DFWjc
Quoting TomTaylor:



I got my Q, ayed, thank you
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1009. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:

People need to stop assuming intensity directly correlates to damage upon landfall. The Saffir-Simpson scale is based of winds, and nothing more. It is a very poor scale for determining how much damage we can expect upon landfall. There is a lot more that goes into a storms overall intensity and what sort of impact it will have upon landfall. A few factors to be considered are how large it is, how long it has been around, how fast it's moving, and what area it will be impacting.


The damage that a hurricane can do to your house is correlated to its maximum wind speed.

Storm surge is a factor if a person lives near the coast, and that is modulated by a variety of things.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26659
Hi everyone, I've been out for a bit. Can someone update me on what's happened since post 995?
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1007. DFWjc
Quoting FLdewey:


Are we taking Katrina, or the levee failure?


We'll the original poster said Andrew did more damage..but i think loss of life is worse than loss of property...
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People need to stop assuming intensity directly correlates to damage upon landfall. The Saffir-Simpson scale is based of winds, and nothing more. It is a very poor scale for determining how much damage we can expect upon landfall. The NHC even admits this and has considered trying to adjust the scale.

There is a lot more that goes into a storms overall intensity and what sort of impact it will have upon landfall. A few factors to be considered are how large it is, how long it has been around, how fast it's moving, and what area it will be impacting.
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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
Wasn't Andrew worse than Katrina in terms of damage?

No.

Quoting CorneliaMarie:
someone actually thinks Katrina was worse than Andrew?

puhleeze

Andrew woulda blown dat French Quartah clear up to Tennessee.

The only thing that made Katrina bad is century old poor design and planning.

Andrew had 200 mph gusts before the recording equipment got blown to pieces

Andrew 1 Katrina -1
You asked which storm did more damage. The answer is Katrina.



Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
If Andrew had made landfall 15-20 miles north and had a wider wind-field... then the damage would excede 300 Billon Dollars.

Yes, but the fact of the matter is, it didn't.


Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Yes Katrina was 1# in total Damage because it was large and affected a larger area..... but in terms of strength... and Pure destruction... Andrew takes the Cake.
Katrina was a stronger hurricane during her lifetime than Andrew. They both maxed at 175 MPH winds, but Katrina's pressure was 20 mbs lower. At landfall, Andrew was a stronger storm, but Katrina did more damage/destruction, which is what the original question asked.



Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


10x Worse.. Andrew had gusts of 177 mph... Katrina 130-140 mph at landfall
Wrong.

The question did not ask which storm was more intense at landfall, it asked which storm did more damage, which is Katrina by far. Katrina's cost was twice as much as Andrew's (adjusted for inflation), she submerged 80% of NOLA, she claimed over 50 times as many lives as Andrew did, and she damaged way, way more many buildings and houses. Not only that, but she emotionally damaged the entire city of New Orleans as well...which is a city well known for it's spirit.

As far as damage is concerned (which is what the question asked), Katrina was a far worse storm. End of story.
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70%.. not bad. Getting there.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
Emily looks better than she's ever looked, ventilation wise. The tube has finally made touch down, and she's begun to suck in air from the bottom.



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995. KoritheMan

Guess that graphic does not mean much, or is a mistake of some sort.
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At 70%
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997. IKE
Please Emily...do something and move on and out.
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996. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA
INDICATE THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM
EMILY HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE SURFACE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 052340
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA
INDICATE THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM
EMILY HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE SURFACE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
so Franklin will come as a CV storm and is expected to devel9op it low by 07/00Z which is as far as I know is near 11/12 pm tommrrow well the way this whole set up is now Franklin may track like Don/Emily


It is way too early to get hung up on the specifics of the long-range synoptic pattern, but yes. Unless hypothetical Franklin strengthens early, he is not going to quickly recuve.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Yes, you have a point.La Nina
o okay when they said it mite come because that could be crazy!
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991. DVG
Quoting Mikla:
Remember... at that distance and .5 degree tilt, the radar image you are looking at is probably at 15,000 ft. Out by the Bahamas, it is probably more like 35k+.



Miami radar has me rethinking.
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990. DFWjc
Quoting CorneliaMarie:
someone actually thinks Katrina was worse than Andrew?

puhleeze

Andrew woulda blown dat French Quartah clear up to Tennessee.

The only thing that made Katrina bad is century old poor design and planning.

Andrew had 200+ mph gusts before the recording equipment got blown to pieces

Andrew +1 Katrina -1


But which storm "killed" more?
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so Franklin will come as a CV storm and is expected to devel9op it low by 07/00Z which is as far as I know is near 11/12 pm tommrrow well the way this whole set up is now Franklin may track like Don/Emily
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Quoting weatherjr:
Emily passes away with NO glory.


Why are you suddenly writing her off?
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now she will probably start spitting out vortices again ........lol
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By tomorrow morning, it will have been 3 weeks since we last saw this:


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James Reynolds is up again covering Typhoon


typhoonfury Morning all! Winds howling here in Naha, sustained hourly winds of 52kts have been, peak gust to 74kts. Think my flt will be cancelled!
17 minutes ago

via Twitter
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983. Mikla
Remember... at that distance and .5 degree tilt, the radar image you are looking at is probably at 15,000 ft. Out by the Bahamas, it is probably more like 35k+.

Quoting DVG:
Looking at the Key West radar, the center of spin appears to be due south of Miami.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


But it wouldn't make sense for them to decrease the probabilities so radically. Based on satellite imagery (complimented by CIMSS vorticity analysis), a weak low-level swirl appears to be amidst the convection.


I don't understand it either, but I have seen in the past if that graphic is "empty", pretty much game over, at least for 48 hours. Could be wrong, have been already today.
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looks like center trying to form near 23.0n 77.0w????
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting DVG:
Looking at the Key West radar, the center of spin appears to be due south of Miami.


No doubt about it.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Very low to no chance.


But it wouldn't make sense for them to decrease the probabilities so radically. Based on satellite imagery (complimented by CIMSS vorticity analysis), a weak low-level swirl appears to be amidst the convection.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Just noticed a little NHC mistake....

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DEGENERATE. A BLEND OF THE
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATION AND BOTH ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB IS USED TO SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY
TO 50 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. THROUGH THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS
...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.


Ironic lol
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Muifa has that evil look.


GRRRRRR!

JMA 5-day track map.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Hmm. Interesting. Not sure what to make of that, honestly. Do you perhaps wish to opine?


Very low to no chance.
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Just noticed a little NHC mistake....

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DEGENERATE. A BLEND OF THE
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATION AND BOTH ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB IS USED TO SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY
TO 50 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. THROUGH THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS
...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
La Nina or El Nino
Yes, you have a point.La Nina
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Previous one


Hmm. Interesting. Not sure what to make of that, honestly. Do you perhaps wish to opine?
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Quoting kmanislander:


I assume you are talking about that waterspout today ?. That was awesome and very large, the largest I have ever seen. The police were out on Harbour Drive near my office telling drivers to move on. Everyone had stopped to watch it.

Luckily it headed out to sea.


Very true, That one looks like an F1- low end F2 to me! BTW what do you make of the wsw/sw winds we've been getting at various stations on the Island today, I see a LL swirl just ENE of the sister Islands, the one of many I think I'm seeing in ex-Emily, which I guess might soon be Emily again!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Nothing I can see, aside from the fact that we probably won't see the explicit mention of a tropical depression.


Previous one
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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