Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting weatherjr:
MississippiWx; Usually, I use simple empirical observations (past and present) and a LOT of Common Sense. Of course, I can be in mistake!! But basically that is my personal opinion. I do not attempt to convince you or other bloggers in favor of my opinion. I consider your opinion and the opinion from other bloggers also) very important. I read all of them!! Thanks for your opinion, even if it contradicts my opinion!!
This is why you should precede or follow your comment with IMO.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF calling it a low again instead of a wave. Winds are up to 30 knots:

AL, 05, 2011080600, , BEST, 0, 228N, 772W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 60, 0, 0,


New coordinates put the low in the middle of this black circle. Interesting.

img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
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all of these pics being shown are way old

ok now they are fixed lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
As far as storm damage is concerned, size and strength does play a major factor. BUT, there was a storm in 1970's (I think Cecile?) that hit Port Aransas, Texas. It was a min Cat 1, small storm. It did not have much rain, but when it hit land it spawned lots, and lots of tornados. Devastated that area. I remember looking at concrete slabs where mobile homes used to be. My most vivid memory is getting to our friend's weekend/summer home, thinking it was alright, then looking through the large front window to the water! Tornado took out the whole back half of the 2 story house. The house next door was totally ok.
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1065. Levi32
Quoting barbamz:


Try anyway, Levi. As much as I've heard very strong auroras could even be watched in the twilight. (I'd love to see any in my life; but traveling towards the North in winter ....brrrr)


I'll take a peek :)
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Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1063. K8eCane
I believe Fran was a Cat 3 and I was in a brick house but you could feel it shaking. My dad took a nerve pill and went to sleep. My mother drank a thimble full of vodka and went to sleep and I stayed up and watched it.
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1062. rv1pop
Is there a way to automatically block those quoting whom you have on ignore?

I use another forum, daily, that tracks quotes as well as posters so we are not besieged with so much nonsense. It also tracks quoted posts so you can go back and read the whole thread.
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Quoting weatherjr:
MississippiWx; Usually, I use simple empirical observations (past and present) and a LOT of Common Sense. Of course, I can be in mistake!! But basically that is my personal opinion. I do not attempt to convince you or other bloggers in favor of my opinion. I consider your opinion and the opinion from other bloggers also) very important. I read all of them!! Thanks for your opinion, even if it contradicts my opinion!!


Seems more like troll speak to me.
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1060. Mucinex
Comparing Andrew and Katrina is like comparing apples and oranges.
Andrew's damage and death toll came purely from storm winds and storm surge.

Katrina's damage and death toll was highly padded by a human/infrastructure failure in NewOrleans. The damage and outcome of Katrina in Mississippi is more in line with Andrew or Camille.

You'd be better served arguing the 1928 Okeechobee storm vs Katrina. They have many more components in common.
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
From TWO 8pm:

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM


so, interests in Florida and east coast don't need to monitor the progress of this system ?


They believe it will continue NNW and then out to see not effecting Fla much, I agree.
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ATCF calling it a low again instead of a wave. Winds are still at 30 knots:

AL, 05, 2011080600, , BEST, 0, 228N, 772W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 60, 0, 0,
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1057. GetReal




IMO the Emily mess is headed for the Florida Straits, and the SE GOM.
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Quoting Levi32:


I would, but our sky here still doesn't get dark enough at night to see aurora lol.
People don't understand that where you are at it hardly gets dark at all this time of the year,
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MississippiWx; Usually, I use simple empirical observations (past and present) and a LOT of Common Sense. Of course, I can be in mistake!! But basically that is my personal opinion. I do not attempt to convince you or other bloggers in favor of my opinion. I consider your opinion and the opinion from other bloggers also) very important. I read all of them!! Thanks for your opinion, even if it contradicts my opinion!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1054. barbamz
Quoting Levi32:


I would, but our sky here still doesn't get dark enough at night to see aurora lol.


Try anyway, Levi. As much as I've heard very strong auroras could even be watched in the twilight. (I'd love to see any in my life; but traveling towards the North in winter ....brrrr)
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


What's your reasoning behind this? Where is your proof? Statements like this, which you are making constantly, will get you ignored by many on here.

Third time was the "poof" for me. WeatherJr now on ignore list with about 15 versions of "Jasonis..."
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Quoting Levi32:
I just had this posted on my facebook wall....you guys seen this? NHC minds getting mixed up with so much activity LOL.

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 052031
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DEGENERATE. A BLEND OF THE
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATION AND BOTH ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB IS USED TO SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY
TO 50 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. THROUGH THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS
...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.

EUGENE CONTINUES TO MOVE AT 285/11...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HR. AFTERWARD...EUGENE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW AND
TURN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW AS CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON THE TVCE
CONSENSUS.


Emily has taken over the minds of the NHC. She is driving everyone insane. LOL.
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1050. Levi32
Quoting barbamz:
Levi, look out of your window this night!
http://www.examiner.com/environmental-news-in-nat ional/major-geomagnetic-storm-progress-may-bring-a uroras-southward-tonight


I would, but our sky here still doesn't get dark enough at night to see aurora lol.
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Emily coming back soon
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1048. DFWjc
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
I know I have weatherjr on ignore already but here's my advice...you'll wont be returning this year either.


ouch...
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1046. Levi32
I just had this posted on my facebook wall....you guys seen this? NHC minds getting mixed up with so much activity LOL.

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 052031
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DEGENERATE. A BLEND OF THE
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATION AND BOTH ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB IS USED TO SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY
TO 50 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. THROUGH THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS
...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.

EUGENE CONTINUES TO MOVE AT 285/11...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HR. AFTERWARD...EUGENE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW AND
TURN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW AS CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON THE TVCE
CONSENSUS.
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1045. emcf30
Quoting weatherjr:
WeatherfanPR: Emily is DEAD. She will not return back this year.

Opinions are fine which I have no problem with. Just curious what the basis of you opinion is. It would be interesting to hear what you have to say on this matter.
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I know I have weatherjr on ignore already but here's my advice...you'll wont be returning this year either.
Member Since: June 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1044
Quoting MississippiWx:


I live 65 miles inland from where Katrina made landfall in MS and we had sustained winds over 100mph with gusts into the 125mph range.


Hard to imagine that. The highest I've personally witnessed is about 70 kt sustained winds, with gusts of 85 to 90 kt, which was during Gustav. I can't really envision anything higher.
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1040. TomTaylor

I think they have settled on separate products, an additional stand alone product for storm surge.
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1041. K8eCane
Quoting weatherjr:
WeatherfanPR: Emily is DEAD. She will not return back this year.




Shut The Front Door
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


They have changed the scale, it is wind scale only.
I meant they've considered changing it to incorporate other factors which influence how much damage a storm will cause upon landfall.

Unfortunately, there is no real easy way to go about doing this.

Quoting Levi32:


Of course not. I added to my post that storm surge is a huge factor if you live on the coast, but if you are inland, wind is the big one, and it matters little how large the storm is if it is moving directly over your house. If we are talking about cumulative damage from the entire storm over the entire affected area, then obviously the size matters more.
Yep, exactly.

I guess we are agreeing, it just sounded like you were disagreeing when you first responded lol
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Quoting weatherjr:
WeatherfanPR: Emily is DEAD. She will not return back this year.


What's your reasoning behind this? Where is your proof? Statements like this, which you are making constantly, will get you ignored by many on here.
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1038. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:


I live 65 miles inland from where Katrina made landfall in MS and we had sustained winds over 100mph with gusts into the 125mph range.


Crazy...
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I am waiting now for the next (future) and more important cyclone from CV...
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Em, it did turn.
And kinda went on predicted track, kinda fell apart as predicted, kinda might reorganize, might (possibly) go north then northwest as predicted.
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Quoting Levi32:


Of course not. I added to my post that storm surge is a huge factor if you live on the coast, but if you are inland, wind is the big one, and it matters little how large the storm is if it is moving directly over your house. If we are talking about cumulative damage from the entire storm over the entire affected area, then obviously the size matters more.


I live 65 miles inland from where Katrina made landfall in MS and we had sustained winds over 100mph with gusts into the 125mph range.
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WeatherfanPR: Emily is DEAD. She will not return back this year.
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
From TWO 8pm:

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM


so, interests in Florida and east coast don't need to monitor the progress of this system ?


That's what I gather from it. You can't explain that to some on here though. It's just going to Florida and into the Gulf in their minds.
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1032. DSIjeff
I think 22.5, 77 finally seeing convection consolidate around that area
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thank you, Tom
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Quoting charlottefl:
It also includes storm surge, but it's generic, not storm specific:

Yes, that's a rough estimate. They can do that with wind pressures too. However, actual storm surges and minimum pressures can vary a lot relative to wind speed.
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1029. FLdewey
Quoting weatherjr:
Emily is DEAD. She could had another opportunity next time her name be in the list...


You've said that twice... go ahead and say it one more time for the hard of hearing.

See you really can't start a fight, because we agree - it's dead.

Now run along.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Quoting TomTaylor:
Winds aren't the only part of a hurricane which cause destruction. The NHC admits this and has even considered changing the Saffir-Simpson scale.


They have changed the scale, it is wind scale only.
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1027. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
Winds aren't the only part of a hurricane which cause destruction. The NHC admits this and has even considered changing the Saffir-Simpson scale.


Of course not. I added to my post that storm surge is a huge factor if you live on the coast, but if you are inland, wind is the big one, and it matters little how large the storm is if it is moving directly over your house. If we are talking about cumulative damage from the entire storm over the entire affected area, then obviously the size matters more.
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
From TWO 8pm:

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM


so, interests in Florida and east coast don't need to monitor the progress of this system ?


I think we can all go about our buisness.
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From TWO 8pm:

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM


so, interests in Florida and east coast don't need to monitor the progress of this system ?
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Did anyone notice the red circle actually looks like a circle now?
Now:

2PM:
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1023. IKE

Quoting DSIjeff:


so perfect.
Bottle will not last the night. Good wine.
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1022. DSIjeff
AGAIN!
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not those youtube vids again....special tip:link it instead.
Member Since: June 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1044
1019. FLdewey
Quoting DFWjc:


We'll the original poster said Andrew did more damage..but i think loss of life is worse than loss of property...


Sure from a human standpoint obviously human lives are invaluable (or they should be)

But the original poster, as you mentioned, was talking damage.

Obviously the levee failure complicates the comparison.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.