Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting palmpt:


Get a grip. Ease up for goodness sake!


? Looks like he has a grip to me.
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Quoting DSIjeff:


agree, you must not have caught my edit.


Yup, I missed it..............It's a close call but I hope, for the sake of he Bahamas as I mentioned before she broke up over Haiti, that they system does not ramp up because they are on the potential eyewall/dirty side and the system is already over them for all practical purposes.
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Incredible how powerful these things can get
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1115. palmpt
Quoting KoritheMan:


The problem here isn't your opinion; it's that you aren't backing it up with facts. Conjecture does not work in science.


Get a grip. Ease up for goodness sake!
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Quoting reedzone:


Read the map carefully, can you see a weakness around Florida, notice the lines moving up in the Bahamas? Ems should move very close to Florida, then should recurve. This isn't going in the GOM.
The weakness is to the East of where Emily is now so how would that pull her towards Florida ?
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Quoting MississippiWx:
The blog is eerily quiet for a 70% chance in the Bahamas.


It's won't be once she regenerates, if she does...
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The blog is eerily quiet for a 70% chance in the Bahamas.
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NHC will change their forecast if they find evidence that she is moving WNW... And right not she is almost stationary, when forward motion resumes, we will know much more about Emily...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
my home no good will mufia destroy?
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Quoting twincomanche:
People don't understand that where you are at it hardly gets dark at all this time of the year,
I understand that is Alaska
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:



How when the steering between Central Bahamas and Cuba is to the West ?


Read the map carefully, can you see a weakness around Florida, notice the lines moving up in the Bahamas? Ems should move very close to Florida, then should recurve. This isn't going in the GOM.
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MUIFA
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Weatherman123456789
I believe you do have a Typhoon watch/Warning, Muifa is nearing the area...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting reedzone:
Why the NHC thinks this will not touch Florida is beyond me.. They are the experts but come on NHC, stop worshiping the model runs. This will likely scrape the FL Coastline before recurving!
I know you like to think you know more than the NHC but I really think if they had any thought that Emily had even a 5% chance of effecting SFL they'd have at the very least mentioned it in the TWO.
.
It also looks to my untrained eye like there will be effects felt in SFL, but I have to think the NHC knows more than me.
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Quoting weatherjr:
stormwatcherCI: Thanks for your comments!
Ok. NP
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1099. Patrap



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting twincomanche:
What kind of winds do you think?


Probably TD to TS.. Nothing major but still.. NHC should not have left Florida out.
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Cybrted, i believe so...
She just needs to continue organization, Survive DMIN, and she'll BE BACK FOR MORE...
Round 2???
Emily back for more...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting blsealevel:
Interesting the things you remember after experiencing a hurricane in K i saw a down burst that pushed a car straight down the bumbers almost touched the ground for a split second, in Gustave when i got back home all of the pluming under the sinks got pushed off and was lying on the bottom of the cabinets.
I had to look for spider cracks in the dry wall to see if any 2 x 4's in the walls and broke thats something to remember if this happens to you.
In Ivan they found a building from an apartment complex about 3 miles or so down the road.
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Quoting DSIjeff:
In line with thinking from yesterday:



There s a slight difference from yesterday; that track took into account TS status along the entire track. I am just suggesting that she is in the correct location right now, but, not at the same strength so I am curious to see what the final outcome will be once she gets going again.
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Quoting reedzone:
The pattern remains the same.. Small weakness just west of Florida.. The ridge should push Ems to the WNW, then scraping the Southeast Florida Coastline. This should recurve once it makes it just east of Melbourne.
Maybe this is Tampa's storm this year and she is sliding west to work her way up . J/K so please don't jump on me :)
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Interesting the things you remember after experiencing a hurricane in K i saw a down burst that pushed a car straight down the bumbers almost touched the ground for a split second, in Gustave when i got back home all of the pluming under the sinks got pushed off and was lying on the bottom of the cabinets.
I had to look for spider cracks in the dry wall to see if any 2 x 4's in the walls and broke thats something to remember if this happens to you.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
I live Shanghi where Muifa go we have Typhoon watch or no. plese anser
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
I just heard the auroua could be seen in tx tonight...dont know how far south but aleast north tx
Looks possible

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1087. GetReal
img src="
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The pattern remains the same.. Small weakness just west of Florida.. The ridge should push Ems to the WNW, then scraping the Southeast Florida Coastline. This should recurve once it makes it just east of Melbourne.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Agreed but it would soften his comment some IMO. LOL


;)
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Quoting weatherjr:
It is an ERROR to ignore the more simple opinion from any of the bloggers. Some people here have their own elite group and never accepts opinion from many other bloggers in the blog. Remember we are all human beings, each one with own criteria and personality. Nobody have the complete truth. The complete truth is distributed in the entire collection of bloggers (including those which do not participate in this forum...)


The problem here isn't your opinion; it's that you aren't backing it up with facts. Conjecture does not work in science.
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1083. barbamz
Quoting Levi32:


I'll take a peek :)


Thanks! I hope, the sky is clear. Mt. Redoubt-cam shows few clouds today.
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webcam/Redoubt_-_Hut.ph p
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Quoting weatherjr:
It is an ERROR to ignore the more simple opinion from any of the bloggers. Some people here have their own elite group and never accepts opinion from many other bloggers in the blog. Remember we are all human beings, each one with own criteria and personality. Nobody have the complete truth. The complete truth is distributed in the entire collection of bloggers (including those which do not participate in this forum...)


There is no elitist group on the blog. I welcome everyone's opinion when it has reasoning behind it. You can't just come here and say EMILY'S DEAD...SHE'S DONE. WHAT'S NEXT. Then repeating it over and over just makes you look like a troll. You gain zero respect from doing things that way.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


On the other hand, any reasonable person shouldn't need a disclaimer. It logically follows.
Agreed but it would soften his comment some IMO. LOL
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1080. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:


New coordinates put the low in the middle of this black circle. Interesting.

img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">


They seem to be expecting the low to reform there, which is very possible.
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Found this line of the TWO interesting..
THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE SURFACE CENTER.


Does that mean the NHC thinks there's a surface circulation?
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Quoting ElConando:


They believe it will continue NNW and then out to see not effecting Fla much, I agree.



How when the steering between Central Bahamas and Cuba is to the West ?
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1076. K8eCane
Quoting reedzone:
Why the NHC thinks this will not touch Florida is beyond me.. They are the experts but come on NHC, stop worshiping the model runs. This will likely scrape the FL Coastline before recurving!


sometimes their hands are economically tied IMO
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Good Evening. The "nearly stationary" language is what captures my imagination as it throws off the timing of things per some of the model guidance. I guess we wait now and see when she gets moving again, and in what configuration, for the models to re-adjust after getting some input from the HH missions tomorrow. Reminds me of a few days ago between PR and Haiti. She is taking "breaks" along the way.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
This is why you should precede or follow your comment with IMO.


On the other hand, any reasonable person shouldn't need a disclaimer. It logically follows.
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Why the NHC thinks this will not touch Florida is beyond me.. They are the experts but come on NHC, stop worshiping the model runs. This will likely scrape the FL Coastline before recurving!
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
From TWO 8pm:

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM

I think this 8pm Tropical update should be for interests in the Southeast Coast of Florida and Keys also. NHC kept saying all along that this storm would miss Florida and curve out to sea. Historical data is against this as well as a High pressure Ridge beginning to build in. It looks like coc is developing about 50 miles North of the Cuban coast and drifting NW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn. html.

SST's are 87 degrees!
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Quoting weatherjr:
MississippiWx; Usually, I use simple empirical observations (past and present) and a LOT of Common Sense. Of course, I can be in mistake!! But basically that is my personal opinion. I do not attempt to convince you or other bloggers in favor of my opinion. I consider your opinion and the opinion from other bloggers also) very important. I read all of them!! Thanks for your opinion, even if it contradicts my opinion!!
This is why you should precede or follow your comment with IMO.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.