Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Looking very good for Dmin.
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1168. GetReal
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i pay like a 212 元 very good deal
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Last frame of IR loop... looks menacing... can't imagine it's an eye... but probably pretty close to the center.

When you look at it fullscreen you can see the dark dot much better.


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Just picked this up in the NOAA August Hurricane Outlook. I knew SSTs were warm, but I didn't know they were this warm...

"Sea-surface temperatures in the MDR are the third warmest on record, and models predict a continuation of very warm SSTs through the hurricane season."


The MDR sea surface temps are only behind last year and 2005 (not by much, though).
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't know if he is genuine or not but I try to live my life by the adage "Judge not lest ye be judged." Isn't it better to give someone the benefit of the doubt than to call them a troll when they might in fact be really asking for help ?


Absolutely :)
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1162. Patrap
Curtain ThreatCON Color: Mauve
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
Quoting Dakster:


Deep South Dade...
sending bugs, particularly those PIA pesky gnats, your way :)
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my city is 閘北 in 上海.
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:

I deal with Taiwan and China , importing. All I deal with speak good english and it just appears strange to me to see it this broken, like on tv. But I could be wrong. That is where my suspicion came from. My apologies if wrong.
I don't know if he is genuine or not but I try to live my life by the adage "Judge not lest ye be judged." Isn't it better to give someone the benefit of the doubt than to call them a troll when they might in fact be really asking for help ?
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1157. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
You guys, dont reject ppl, even though they are suspected trolls, it helps others if they are actually telling the truth, even if theyre trolling...
Im going into lurk mode, just getting tired of what this blog is becoming...
Full with people who amp the systems over obcessively, and the growing and wide population of Trolls in the blog, just get tired of what goes on during some days in the blog, and prefer to post less due to this...

Wish we could start a new blog/renew DR. Masters' blog where this problem is diminished...
Back to lurking i guess.
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1155. Dakster
Quoting hunkerdown:
not in Boynton its not...


Deep South Dade...
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1st post in a year, member since 2005

Just looked at Cuban radar closest to Emily and she defintely has a circulation in bob of thunderstorms that is located squarely between the coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas. She may be more organized than the NHC stated at the 8pm advisory.
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1153. jeebsa
I have a very pleasant sea breeze here in Martin County tonight, not sure if it has anything to do with the mess S.E. of here.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Isn't Shanghai the English word for the area ? People need to stop being so suspicious of everyone new on here.

I deal with Taiwan and China , importing. All I deal with speak good english and it just appears strange to me to see it this broken, like on tv. But I could be wrong. That is where my suspicion came from. My apologies if wrong.
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Quoting Dakster:
It is getting a little windy here in South Florida...
It is actually cooling things off a bit and keeping the bugs at bay, which is a nice change.
not in Boynton its not...
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His "bad" english is too good, he apparently lives in unsafe housing, is in fear of his life, but, was able to join the blog yesterday and blogging (on a high speed internet connection) on the eve of a Typhoon strike......Come On.......Lol.
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Quoting Weatherman12345678:
i go church shelter?
Yes.
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1147. GetReal


IMO the Emily mess will follow the flow indicted on the above WV loop, and regain TD status in the Florida Straits.
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You guys, dont reject ppl, even though they are suspected trolls, it helps others if they are actually telling the truth, even if theyre trolling...
Im going into lurk mode, just getting tired of what this blog is becoming...
Full with people who amp the systems over obcessively, and the growing and wide population of Trolls in the blog, just get tired of what goes on during some days in the blog, and prefer to post less due to this...

Wish we could start a new blog/renew DR. Masters' blog where this problem is diminished...
Back to lurking i guess.
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If somehow the NHC is wrong in not even considering a 5% possibility, and the remnants of Emily winds up winding up and makes a direct run at SFL then it would be an epic failure for them. It does seem odd that they didn't even mention SFL when you have a "something" that they themselves call 70% sitting in hot water SSE of SFL.
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i go church shelter?
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:

But wouldn't he know how to spell Shanghai if he lived there? Seem's strange..
Isn't Shanghai the English word for the area ? People need to stop being so suspicious of everyone new on here. Could it not be a typo ?
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:

But wouldn't he know how to spell Shanghai if he lived there? Seem's strange..
They type in charaters so these letters might be new.
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1140. Dakster
It is getting a little windy here in South Florida...
It is actually cooling things off a bit and keeping the bugs at bay, which is a nice change.
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1138. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Everyone who comes here that does not know everything or speaks improper English is not a troll.

But wouldn't he know how to spell Shanghai if he lived there? Seem's strange..
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Based on the track in SHIPS looks like they forecast due north for the next day.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10839
Quoting Weatherman12345678:
I live Shanghi where Muifa go we have Typhoon watch or no. plese anser


Doesn't look like it according to the JTWC. Not sure about other agencies, though.
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Quoting twincomanche:
Troll warning weatherman whatever......
Everyone who comes here that does not know everything or speaks improper English is not a troll.
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Quoting Weatherman12345678:
i live zha bei you know? I no want mufia come. how i become safe.
You have storm shelters at schools, churches etc. ? Go to one.
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Weatherman,
you could still get the brunt of the system, though you'll be on the west side which is weaker currently, though if your house structure is poor, go to a safer place/Shelter
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850mb vorticity has become much better defined and more circular in the past 3 hours.

3 hours ago:



Now:

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i live in like a move home. very bad i worry.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
The blog is eerily quiet for a 70% chance in the Bahamas.


Which equates to a 30% chance that this time tomorrow it won't be like a prison riot.

Just got back on... saw NHC upped their bet by 10%... Storm is blowing up...

Maybe it has something to do with it or not, got some light breezes from the east tonight in Boca Raton.

Usually where I'm at 7 miles back off the beach it's dead still this time of the evening.
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oh!! now Emily will hit Florida .lol
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Weatherman123456789
I believe you do have a Typhoon watch/Warning, Muifa is nearing the area...


Hint..............Don't feed the troll........
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1125. barbamz
Quoting twincomanche:
People don't understand that where you are at it hardly gets dark at all this time of the year,


Nice site to do this (includes weather and hurricanes as well)
http://www.die.net/earth/rectangular.html


I often use this site to realize whether you're all already awake somewhere in the US, lol. But you see, I've really go to bed in Germany now. So good night all.
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Weatherman,
Muifa is a Category 1 Typhoon, and is starting to move Northward, and will skim your area as it enters the Yellow Sea, and makes landfall as a weaker typhoon near Beijing...
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When comparing the surge between Andrew and Katrina, I believe most of you are missing the key ingredient. The slope of the ocean floor at the coast. The Gulf coast has a longer, more gradual sloping shelf which leads to a higher surge. The east coast of Florida has a steep drop which produces a lower surge. So in reality, you can compare the surge on the Gulf coast to that of the Florida East coast.

As far as Andrew's winds, one will truly never know just how strong they were. Yes, you can read about calculations based on this and that, but bottom line is that the gauges broke as the winds were increasing prior to the strongest part of the storm making landfall.
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Quoting GetReal:




IMO the Emily mess is headed for the Florida Straits, and the SE GOM.
Why not, they said she was dead too, and that was wrong. She's never looked better.
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i live zha bei you know? I no want mufia come. how i become safe.
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Quoting Weatherman12345678:
my home no good will mufia destroy?
If your home is concrete you might get some damage. If it is a wooden structure go to some type of shelter. Not safe.
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Quoting palmpt:


Get a grip. Ease up for goodness sake!


? Looks like he has a grip to me.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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