Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Dateline Tamarac Fl

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:
There are a lot of people 30 and older on this blog. Trust that.


Indeed.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10282
1216. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Have loved the tropics ever since i began weather science in 3RD GRADE... but at that time it was mostly Tornadoes, then my focused shifted the next year when i was in a conference room, and turned on the TV, and HURRICANE DEAN was the headline...
Hence my username... and ive grown off that one event...
And thats my story...


Cool, we got a good blow and some minor damage from Dean!
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1213. nymore
KP index of 7 may go to 8 a lot of you people may be able to see the aurora or northern lights. go the the geophysical institute click on the interpreting the aurora then click select a view then select north america and look at kp 7 and see if you will be able to see them. with the index this high it should be quite a show
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1212. Patrap
My thoughts think we need to be wary of any gathering fray in the Straits that has been persistant along its lifetime.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128617
Quoting whepton3:


What do you think... last few frames of SAT loops look like it's starting to center up?


The last coordinates that we had put the center directly in the middle of the convective mass. With the center being there, its chances of developing completely (closing off) are a lot higher. We'll just have to watch it through the night. Diurnal max could really help her tonight if she's still organizing.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10282
Quoting FLdewey:


It takes 10 seconds to get those characters from Google Translate. It's obviously a fake account, but hey half the fun is watching people defend these jokers.



What if he's really in trouble and turned to the noble WU peeps for expert assistance? Then you would feel silly now wouldn't you Mr Smarty Pants!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Have loved the tropics ever since i began weather science in 3RD GRADE... but at that time it was mostly Tornadoes, then my focused shifted the next year when i was in a conference room, and turned on the TV, and HURRICANE DEAN was the headline...
Hence my username... and ive grown off that one event...
And thats my story...
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Quoting MississippiWx:


What makes you think the majority of people on here are adults? Lol. I can almost assure you that a large portion of the blog members are in their teens. I'm in my mid-20s, though.


Children and Teens are two different age groups. I myself are in my 20's too.
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@typhoonfury
James Reynolds
Just re-posting link to footage I shot yesterday in Okinawa as typhoon Muifa swept past - http://youtu.be/IPXgzDjtLPs
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1203. Mikla
Yeah... i saw that... not sure they actually meant closed circulation though...

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Mikla, NHC mentioned a SURFACE CENTER in their TWO
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I have to admit im a teen, though my passion toward the tropics takes my thoughts to more mature levels of this subject...
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Quoting Daniel101:
1st post in a year, member since 2005

Just looked at Cuban radar closest to Emily and she defintely has a circulation in bob of thunderstorms that is located squarely between the coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas. She may be more organized than the NHC stated at the 8pm advisory.


Never even thought about looking at Cuban radar, good call...
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Troll warnings now, and the rest of your childish BS gonna lurk seams 80% of you are not worth the comment anymore what happened to this blog was a informative place to get different views now its troll warnings wow.
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You guys don't have to guess where the center is. NOAA has put it on their map at 23.5N, 78.5W. You can see it on the visible loop. Convection has caught up to it. I think the TWO should have mentioned FL as this system is headed that direction and has yet to make any curve as soon as they have predicted, but I'm not the experts so I recognize I could be foolishly wrong.
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Quoting twincomanche:
One is forced to suggest that you go back there. Your comments are so so..............whatever.


Exactly my point....
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Upper Divergence



Lower Convergence


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Quoting violet312s:
Even if the supposed poster might be not legitimate, there are probably others who might benefit from good information. No harm, no foul.

You either choose to respond or you don't.


The ends justify the means?

I never actually agreed with that, myself

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Mikla, NHC mentioned a SURFACE CENTER in their TWO
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


lol I still think a phoney but I hope he stays safe in the storm.


I actually judge for a living (don't ask me where) so I am always suspicious if the facts don't add up.... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9208
1192. jeebsa
Looking more and more impressive on Sat. I would not be surprised if I wake up in the a.m. and be under a watch or warning of some sort. But Steve Weagle from channel 5 doesn't think so. Will see..
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Some things you just have to let roll off your back. Nothing said here is really that big of a deal in the grand scheme of life. If you don't like it, ignore it and move on. Enjoy the blog...It's easy if you really want to.


What do you think... last few frames of SAT loops look like it's starting to center up?
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1190. Mikla
I believe this is very close to being a TD or even a TS. Everything is in place:
SST
Divergence
Convergence
Moisture
Low Shear
Vorticity is improving through 500mb
Thunderstorms are getting more organized.

Looking at RGB and Cuba radar, there is some rotation but hard to tell if it goes to the surface. Be curious to find out what the HH aircraft finds out tomorrow... I am pretty certain it will get sent out.

Track is still a bit uncertain, but given the slow down in speed it may be ready to turn a bit more northward.
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Even if the supposed poster might be not legitimate, there are probably others who might benefit from good information. No harm, no foul.

You either choose to respond or you don't.
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Ok, lets clear everything up about the steering pattern.

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Missippiwx,
thanks for your positive choice of words, and i thank you for your advice in reacting in the blog...
Just have noticed more trolls to deal with...
Need to learn not to be so uptight about these sort of things, and let it just take it's coarse...
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Quoting CCSoFLA79:


agree 100%..new here and have never seen so much childish behavior in adults in my life. If I wanted that I would stay on facebook.


What makes you think the majority of people on here are adults? Lol. I can almost assure you that a large portion of the blog members are in their teens. I'm in my mid-20s, though.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10282
Quoting CosmicEvents:
If somehow the NHC is wrong in not even considering a 5% possibility, and the remnants of Emily winds up winding up and makes a direct run at SFL then it would be an epic failure for them. It does seem odd that they didn't even mention SFL when you have a "something" that they themselves call 70% sitting in hot water SSE of SFL.


Well I won't say anything about NHC directly anyone/models can be wrong, but another thought crosses my mind , Dear not say the Gulf or even Fl., Oil/Gas prices go sky high , Breaking news on CNN the US just got an AA+ rating in credit, not the AAA it had , Blame it on the Reps or Dems, IMO its a free for all, though personally its common knowledge the GOP would do anything to try make Obama look bad,2012 a highly probable replay of 1996 IMO, just saying.......
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:

I deal with Taiwan and China , importing. All I deal with speak good english and it just appears strange to me to see it this broken, like on tv. But I could be wrong. That is where my suspicion came from. My apologies if wrong.

You're not wrong. The lack of both definite and indefinite articles is as sure a sign as any that it's merely some needy child seeking attention. FWIW, I put him/her ignore after the first obviously fake comment.

The hurricane season is fun here; there's so much going on. But in the much slower and mostly less exciting winter, I sure don't miss the trolls and the troll-ish.

Oh, well...
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Thanks GetReal for the Cuban Radar definitely rotation off the coast of Cuba
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Quoting Patrap:

2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve




Looks nice and centered tonight, what are the thoughts Patrap?
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I apologize if I offended any members of the Blog; you know that is not my character to attack anyone but I am a bit suspicious (although impressed with the Asian characters) and I'll leave it at that.


lol I still think a phoney but I hope he stays safe in the storm.
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Atlantic Ocean...
the convection associated to the remnant low pressure system of
Emily is affecting the Atlc waters N of Cuba and W of the
Bahamas S of 25n between 73w-78w. Scattered heavy showers and
thunderstorms roam this area. Also...a surface trough associated
to this system is analyzed from 28n74w to the low level center
near 23n78w into the Caribbean across central Cuba. Computer
models suggest this area of convection will continue to move NW
spreading over the waters near the NW Bahamas and eastern
Florida Seaboard
over the next 24-36 hours.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
The location is believe is the center is
23.1 N ; 77.2 W
I would put it around 22.5 N.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8391
1176. hotrods
I have to agree with Cosmic, i have seen weaker systems/weaker tropical storms or depressions very close to florida and issues put for the coastline. Im a little confused myself why the NHC didn't say something for the eastcoast of Fl just incase.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
You guys, dont reject ppl, even though they are suspected trolls, it helps others if they are actually telling the truth, even if theyre trolling...
Im going into lurk mode, just getting tired of what this blog is becoming...
Full with people who amp the systems over obcessively, and the growing and wide population of Trolls in the blog, just get tired of what goes on during some days in the blog, and prefer to post less due to this...

Wish we could start a new blog/renew DR. Masters' blog where this problem is diminished...
Back to lurking i guess.


agree 100%..new here and have never seen so much childish behavior in adults in my life. If I wanted that I would stay on facebook.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The location is believe is the center is
23.1 N ; 77.2 W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I apologize if I offended any members of the Blog; you know that is not my character to attack anyone but I am a bit suspicious (although impressed with the Asian characters) and I'll leave it at that.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9208
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
You guys, dont reject ppl, even though they are suspected trolls, it helps others if they are actually telling the truth, even if theyre trolling...
Im going into lurk mode, just getting tired of what this blog is becoming...
Full with people who amp the systems over obcessively, and the growing and wide population of Trolls in the blog, just get tired of what goes on during some days in the blog, and prefer to post less due to this...

Wish we could start a new blog/renew DR. Masters' blog where this problem is diminished...
Back to lurking i guess.


Some things you just have to let roll off your back. Nothing said here is really that big of a deal in the grand scheme of life. If you don't like it, ignore it and move on. Enjoy the blog...It's easy if you really want to.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10282
1170. Patrap

2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128617



Looking very good for Dmin.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8391

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.