Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting padirescu:


Not if they're use to spelling it in Chinese!!! I love the ignorance of some people who think that someone who lives in a different country, with a different language than English, should somehow know exactly how to spell the English translation of words in their language. Oh and let's not mention the possibility of a typo!

Case in point... Link

Even with "English" speaking nationalities, spellings can be slightly skewed.

Ok, rant over... Back to watching the remnants of Emily.


Oh come on. It was a troll. And apparently a good one because he got the board into a frenzy about it which is exactly what a good troll can do.
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1268. Patrap
..am old nuff to have served with Grothar in NATO against the Warsaw Pac
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
05/2345 UTC 23.3N 78.4W TOO WEAK EMILY -- Atlantic


It's no wonder that it's too weak at those coordinates because there is nothing there in the way of convection.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting reedzone:
Ems is really impressing me tonight.. Course conditions are very favorable where it's at.. 5-10 knots and she looks to be moistening the environment. May be a Tropical Storm tomorrow if trends continue.



Agree. Still no indication of pressures dropping near Emily.
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1265. robj144
Quoting JGreco:




hahahahaha:)


I wish I could laugh at that. :)
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Back to the weather. Here is a good rapid scan link for the Artist formerly know as Emily. Pretty impressive convection over the suspected dominant COC the past several hours......Don;t know how long this will last but impressive.....

Link

Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9330
1262. KBH
shifting from Emily for a bit, what is that frontal system converging around B'dos?
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1260. JGreco
Quoting robj144:


I'm older...




hahahahaha:)
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05/2345 UTC 23.3N 78.4W TOO WEAK EMILY -- Atlantic
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1258. robj144
Quoting JGreco:


You guys are making me feel old....

I'm in my late 20's....;)


I'm older...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If I were to have a story...
I've followed hurricanes since Felix and can tell you about any from him on without looking(not everything.)
I hope to expand my knowledge by learning from people here. I wish to become the senior hurricane specialist at the weather channel. Some say that the TWC doesn't do a good job with forecasting, but I would try to make sure that I am 100% acurate.
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1255. JGreco
Quoting CCSoFLA79:


Children and Teens are two different age groups. I myself are in my 20's too.


You guys are making me feel old....

I'm in my late 20's....;)
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1254. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
472

WHXX01 KWBC 060009

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0009 UTC SAT AUG 6 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE EMILY (AL052011) 20110806 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110806 0000 110806 1200 110807 0000 110807 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 22.8N 77.2W 24.5N 78.8W 26.0N 79.5W 27.1N 79.8W

BAMD 22.8N 77.2W 23.8N 78.7W 24.8N 80.3W 25.5N 81.5W

BAMM 22.8N 77.2W 24.1N 78.7W 25.2N 79.9W 26.1N 80.7W

LBAR 22.8N 77.2W 23.7N 78.7W 24.9N 80.1W 25.9N 81.2W

SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 44KTS 47KTS

DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 44KTS 47KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110808 0000 110809 0000 110810 0000 110811 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 28.2N 78.7W 29.7N 73.9W 31.3N 65.6W 31.1N 58.9W

BAMD 26.2N 82.5W 27.4N 83.7W 28.4N 82.9W 27.7N 80.8W

BAMM 26.7N 80.9W 27.6N 80.4W 28.3N 78.5W 29.8N 74.8W

LBAR 27.0N 81.6W 29.0N 80.8W 30.4N 77.4W 33.4N 70.4W

SHIP 48KTS 52KTS 51KTS 43KTS

DSHP 48KTS 52KTS 51KTS 43KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 22.8N LONCUR = 77.2W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

LATM12 = 21.9N LONM12 = 76.1W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 20.0N LONM24 = 73.8W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Ems is really impressing me tonight.. Course conditions are very favorable where it's at.. 5-10 knots and she looks to be moistening the environment. May be a Tropical Storm tomorrow if trends continue.

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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:

But wouldn't he know how to spell Shanghai if he lived there? Seem's strange..


Not if they're use to spelling it in Chinese!!! I love the ignorance of some people who think that someone who lives in a different country, with a different language than English, should somehow know exactly how to spell the English translation of words in their language. Oh and let's not mention the possibility of a typo!

Case in point... Link

Even with "English" speaking nationalities, spellings can be slightly skewed.

Ok, rant over... Back to watching the remnants of Emily.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Notice that as I bring myself up to speed. Last few RGB's were interesting to me SSW of Andros. AVN pointing that direction as well, something to ponder for sure.



Latest coordinates were at 22.8N 77.2W, or right in the center of the convection.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting reedzone:
Ok, lets clear everything up about the steering pattern.

what a lot don't understand is that they look at the flow, with the arrows, and feel that is the determining factor in the direction it will travel. They miss the actual weaknesses which is what you need to focus on as that is they path it will travel, to sum it up, the system will take the path of least resistance which in this case is the weakness that currently parallels the Florida East coast.
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Quoting FLdewey:


Oh god... somebody wire him some money before he drowns!!!


lmao
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Quoting Patrap:
My thoughts think we need to be wary of any gathering fray in the Straits that has been persistant along its lifetime.


Notice that as I bring myself up to speed. Last few RGB's were interesting to me SSW of Andros. AVN pointing that direction as well, something to ponder for sure.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think i learned most of my knowledge on the tropics on this blog, and a few youtube videos(An hour long) to back that up...
this has allowed to me to understand all the statistics within storms, forecasting, predictions, conditions for storms, and other facts and info.
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Quoting scooster67:
Ok

But how high in the atmosphere are those steering patterns and how high are the cloud tops in Ems?


TD to TS status..
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Dateline Tamarac Fl

Very nice!
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1240. Gearsts
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


that was your statement weatherjr. not mine
He's a troll...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1960
Quoting GetReal:


You da man! Keep posting that radar loop. It certainly hints that the center is in the middle of the rain shield.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting emcf30:

Opinions are fine which I have no problem with. Just curious what the basis of you opinion is. It would be interesting to hear what you have to say on this matter.


I did not said that. that was a weatherjr statement.
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Quoting reedzone:
Ok, lets clear everything up about the steering pattern.

Ok

But how high in the atmosphere are those steering patterns and how high are the cloud tops in Ems?
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Quoting P451:
There are a lot of people 30 and older on this blog. Trust that.


Why did you look at me when you said that????
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Quoting weatherjr:
WeatherfanPR: Emily is DEAD. She will not return back this year.


that was your statement weatherjr. not mine
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1233. GetReal
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:


by the way, that was a weatherjr statement. I did not say that.


I know...lol. Did I quote you? Apologies if I did!
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting P451:
There are a lot of people 30 and older on this blog. Trust that.


Very much so. Still way more clueless than some of the younger whipper-snapper meteorologists in training. Thus why I love this site.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Me too. I am only 12.


Wow, I joined this site 2 months before I turned 11.
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1229. jeebsa
Quoting MississippiWx:


Indeed.
thats for sure
Member Since: June 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 277
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Dateline Tamarac Fl



Isn't that how the movie "Independence Day" started?
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I have to admit im a teen, though my passion toward the tropics takes my thoughts to more mature levels of this subject...


Same here.
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Quoting P451:
There are a lot of people 30 and older on this blog. Trust that.


Hey P; I am 50 and Emily/Post-Emily has given me a few extra grey hairs.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9330
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I have to admit im a teen, though my passion toward the tropics takes my thoughts to more mature levels of this subject...

Me too. I am only 12.
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Quoting K8eCane:




Shut The Front Door


that was a weatherjr statement. I did not said that.
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Quoting P451:
There are a lot of people 30 and older on this blog. Trust that.


I'm 15 but I don't act as childish as some others on the blog.
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Quoting FLdewey:


It takes 10 seconds to get those characters from Google Translate. It's obviously a fake account, but hey half the fun is watching people defend these jokers.



Still using dial-up? Wanna borrow my it's not a modem model?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL,
thats agreeable in some ways Twincomanche..
:)
Yeah have loved tracking the tropics ever since 2007, and have built my knowledge from being a extreme inaccurate forecaster to a more mature less over reactive person towards tropical weather, and am able to forecast much better due to not hyping storms like a did previously...
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Quoting MississippiWx:


What's your reasoning behind this? Where is your proof? Statements like this, which you are making constantly, will get you ignored by many on here.


by the way, that was a weatherjr statement. I did not said that.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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