Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting hunkerdown:
NW to the West coast or East coast ?


Sorry, meant NW to the East coast of Fla. W coast would be WNW then a right turn.
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Quoting DFWjc:


No prob, pray for me tomorrow, I go to work for the first time since I was let go in late April. I got a job at Jerry Dome and I'll be out in this heat for a Fútbol match (working traffic and/or parking). I run a fireworks stand every year, so I'm already used to the heat, but it was only 98-100 then...not too sure about these 106-110 that we've been having lately..


You're awesome! Anyone willing to brave the heat in the name of going back to work is a class act in my book. Hot weather aside, I hope you have some fun!
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I thought everybody lived in FL???

JK


Jupiter here.
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Quoting jeebsa:
Alot of Floridians on here were is everybody from?

.
Charleston here.
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1364. ncstorm


first time I ever seen purple on the atlantic side where the NHC has a circle..
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Quoting avthunder:


Think we may see some rain in the Ft. Lauderdale area from this? We really need it. A weak tropical storm would not be a bad thing here. Feel bad for Haiti though - seems like they can't catch a break.


Yeah, we should see rain from ex-Emily going into tomorrow as it should get close enough for us to get some rain. I wouldn't mind a weak TS either (40-50 mph). Poor Haiti has been getting the worst. I read an article today about how Haiti still hasn't recovered from the earthquake.
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Quoting jeebsa:
Alot of Floridians on here were is everybody from?


Lighthouse Point - north of Ft Lauderdale, south of Boca. How about you?
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Quoting jeebsa:
Alot of Floridians on here were is everybody from?

Were all from Florida
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Quoting kmanislander:


Right now it looks like NNW through the Bahamas and then out to sea. Odds of NW to the West coast of Fla about 20% IMO
NW to the West coast or East coast ?
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Back,
My thoughts on Emily...
She has impressed this afternoon with a sruface circulation possibly evident within the convection South of andros is. Convergence(Surface convective blow up, Be able to produce convection freely) is well defined with the system as well as divergence(Ventilation). Vorticity is increasing where the possible Surface circulation is situated, and DMIN has tooken little affect on Ex-Emily this evening. My outlook is that Emily should continue this trend til Mid PM tomorrow then the NHC(if at all) will Regenerate her into Tropical depression/Storm Emily and head between Andros and Miami, with a possible nick/landfall to Florida before heading out to sea.
i foresee, that if Emily were to reform that her intensity could peak out around 50 to 65 mph depending on when/if Reformation occurs.
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1357. jeebsa
Alot of Floridians on here were is everybody from?
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Quoting DFWjc:


don't ya mean the last two... Don was a doozy too..

Didn't mean to exclude "Don the doozy"

Quoting robj144:


The official track from the NHC has never been far off though.


True, but, track + intensity, makes a complete forecast.
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Quoting P451:


That's likely a dry pocket north of the circulation center.

More like an infrared glitch.
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Quoting caneswatch:
I have a feeling Emily is going to catch people off guard tomorrow.


Think we may see some rain in the Ft. Lauderdale area from this? We really need it. A weak tropical storm would not be a bad thing here. Feel bad for Haiti though - seems like they can't catch a break.
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1353. jeebsa
Thats if it move due north. Same forcast here. But they haven't lowered the POPs just yet.
Quoting Daniel101:
NWS in Miami now feels that the low associated with the remments of Emily will likely move slowly northward thru the Bahamas....if the low strengthens then the NWS Miami believes that drier air will filter into South Florida from the west and they may have to lower precipitation chances for the weekend.
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Quoting scott39:
and goimg where?


Right now it looks like NNW through the Bahamas and then out to sea. Odds of NW to the West coast of Fla about 20% IMO
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1351. nymore
Keeper should be a good aurora show for you too.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
3d and yes.


I've always been an Nvidia guy myself however, you have to make sure they are cooled efficiently, they get super hot. I am going to be building soon and I personally do Auto Cad, 3D rendering ect... only light gaming so I am going with a Nvidia Quadro, workstation class.
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1349. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1348. jeebsa
On the up side its work in this day in age alot of people out of work. Take care of your self in that kind of heat. Good Luck my
Quoting DFWjc:


No prob, pray for me tomorrow, I go to work for the first time since I was let go in late April. I got a job at Jerry Dome and I'll be out in this heat for a Fútbol match (working traffic and/or parking). I run a fireworks stand every year, so I'm already used to the heat, but it was only 98-100 then...not too sure about these 106-110 that we've been having lately..
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1347. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:
Emily Part 2 at 70% as I indicated late this afternoon. Consolidation on the way as well.
and goimg where?
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NWS in Miami now feels that the low associated with the remments of Emily will likely move slowly northward thru the Bahamas....if the low strengthens then the NWS Miami believes that drier air will filter into South Florida from the west and they may have to lower precipitation chances for the weekend.
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1344. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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I have a feeling Emily is going to catch people off guard tomorrow.
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1342. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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More flashy flares!
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Statistical... Therefore like the BAMM'S it is not dynamic.. therefore it doesnt see changes in steering/atmosphere.



I see an LLC .... But what direction is it heading...
I don't know how to post loops but looking at IR Channel 2 it looks stationary. Doesn't look to be moving at all.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8346
1339. robj144
Quoting seafarer459:
From PhD's, to trolls. This system has people scratching their heads bloody. If this isn't one of the most amazing, learning, humbling, systems ever??? Well I give up... One for the books.


The official track from the NHC has never been far off though.
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1338. DFWjc
Quoting seafarer459:
From PhD's, to trolls. This system has people scratching their heads bloody. If this isn't one of the most amazing, learning, humbling, systems ever??? Well I give up... One for the books.


don't ya mean the last two... Don was a doozy too..
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From PhD's, to trolls. This system has people scratching their heads bloody. If this isn't one of the most amazing, learning, humbling, systems ever??? Well I give up... One for the books.
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1336. DFWjc
Quoting jeebsa:
Thanks for the link


No prob, pray for me tomorrow, I go to work for the first time since I was let go in late April. I got a job at Jerry Dome and I'll be out in this heat for a Fútbol match (working traffic and/or parking). I run a fireworks stand every year, so I'm already used to the heat, but it was only 98-100 then...not too sure about these 106-110 that we've been having lately..
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Emily Part 2 at 70% as I indicated late this afternoon. Consolidation on the way as well.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


What type of rendering?

And

Do you intend to use it for Gaming as well?
3d and yes.
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I see Emily is back up to 70%. Somehow this feels like deja vu.

Almost nine at night and it's still over a hundred degrees... I'm getting very tired of the intense excessive heat.
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Quoting scooster67:
I know the BAM's models are dynamic. What type of model is the LBAR?


Statistical... Therefore like the BAMM'S it is not dynamic.. therefore it doesnt see changes in steering/atmosphere.

Quoting P451:
I dunno folks but I think we might have a little something here... I pieced together a few loops I kept so far today of the Cuban Radars from http://www.cancunweathertoday.com/radar.php and fixed the frame delay.




I see an LLC .... But what direction is it heading...
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I have a question for u techs on the blog, would it be worth it to spend the exrta cash to get a Nvidea 590 or stick with my EVGA 570? BTW i do a ton of editing and rendering for people.


What type of rendering?

And

Do you intend to use it for Gaming as well?
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SPWC reporting geomagnetic storm at G3 strength!
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1329. robj144
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

I can clearly see a spin there.


Where?
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1328. cwf1069
Quoting will40:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

bouys

Thank you.
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Quoting scooster67:
I meant statistical :)
The LBAR is also statistical, so is the Clip and Clip5
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I have a question for u techs on the blog, would it be worth it to spend the exrta cash to get a Nvidea 590 or stick with my EVGA 570? BTW i do a ton of editing and rendering for people.
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P451. Thanks for the loop, very helpful!
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1322. jeebsa
Thanks for the link
Quoting DFWjc:


MSNBC has a nice write up about the current situation and if you scroll down it has a video about how a heat dome works, what is heat stroke and how to cope..

Link
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1321. will40
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

bouys
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Quoting scooster67:
I know the BAM's models are dynamic. What type of model is the LBAR?
I meant statistical :)
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Don't forget: Eugene is still maintaining its eye! it's eye has not yet disappeared even though it's losing intensity!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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