Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Didn't even notice your handle. Is it north east FLA? :)

Ding, ding ding... ;)
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1418. robj144
Quoting NEFLWATCHING:
Okay, so my name is too confusing...


Didn't even notice your handle. Is it north east FLA? :)
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Treasure Island?


no no we weren't guessing mine. I already told.. lol
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1416. Grothar
Quoting jeebsa:
Alot of Floridians on here were is everybody from?


Bay Colony. Coral Ridge
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1415. DFWjc
Quoting NEFLWATCHING:
Okay, so my name is too confusing...


true, you could be from Mississippi (hench the watching part) LOL
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Quoting NEFLWATCHING:
Okay, so my name is too confusing...


NE Ft Lauderdale?
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


Try your next two guesses.. lol
Treasure Island?
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Okay, so my name is too confusing...
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1411. rv1pop
Far from FL although have had the RV there. And over 65. Met Dwight Eisenhower when he was a General..... So double in minority.

Praying for all those who might be in the path of any of these storms, Keep them off land until they can come in as a super rain generator and drench LA and TX.... Looking (prayer casting) for landfall East of Houston TX... Entirely possible in the Super-natural.
POP
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Quoting jeebsa:
Alot of Floridians on here were is everybody from?


Hollywood, FL
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1409. robj144
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


Try your next two guesses.. lol


I give up... it's too hard.
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1408. jeebsa
Back to back Eyes with both wasnt much fun but exciting as well. Lost alot but we rebuilt.
Quoting avthunder:


Frances and Jean did a number up there, I remember 2004 - rough year. We only got fringe effects from them - 2 days without power from each. Wilma was our bad one - 2 weeks with no power.
Hope we don't get those kind of storms this year.
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Quoting robj144:


Ummm... southeast Florida.


Tea is faaar away from my keyboard, other wise... lol
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Quoting hunkerdown:
Come on, don't lie, you are really from Florida :)

Aww jeeze ,ya got me. I'm really from BocaPortSaintDeerfieldJaxcapedaytonia
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18.1n73.3w, 20.0n73.8w, 20.9n74.5w, 22.2n76.7w, 23.0n78.0w have been re-evaluated&altered for the 12amGMT ATCF
18.2n73.1w, 20.0n73.8w, 21.1n75.2w, 21.9n76.1w, 22.4n76.7w, 22.8n77.2w are now the most recent positions

TropicalWaveEmily's travel-speed was 7mph(11.3k/h) on a heading of 310.8degrees(NorthWest)

The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Copy&paste 18.2n73.1w, 20.0n73.8w-21.1n75.2w, 21.1n75.2w-21.9n76.1w, 21.9n76.1w-22.4n76.7w, 22.4n76.7w-22.8n77.2w, psx, bpt, tpa, oca, ccc, cox, 22.4n76.7w-25.218n80.335w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TW.Emily was headed toward passage over KeyLargo,Florida ~1days11hours from now

Upon re-evaluation&alteration, TW.Emily has been traveling a LOT slower than the previous ATCF's had shown. See the previous mapping for more details.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Back,
My thoughts on Emily...
She has impressed this afternoon with a sruface circulation possibly evident within the convection South of andros is. Convergence(Surface convective blow up, Be able to produce convection freely) is well defined with the system as well as divergence(Ventilation). Vorticity is increasing where the possible Surface circulation is situated, and DMIN has tooken little affect on Ex-Emily this evening. My outlook is that Emily should continue this trend til Mid PM tomorrow then the NHC(if at all) will Regenerate her into Tropical depression/Storm Emily and head between Andros and Miami, with a possible nick/landfall to Florida before heading out to sea.
i foresee, that if Emily were to reform that her intensity could peak out around 50 to 65 mph depending on when/if Reformation occurs.

yep. in my opinion the system looks as good as it ever has.
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Quoting avthunder:


Lighthouse Point - north of Ft Lauderdale, south of Boca. How about you?


Merritt Island, Brevard County
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1402. robj144
Quoting DFWjc:


ROFLMAO!!!


Do I still get two more guesses? :)
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Quoting robj144:


Ummm... southeast Florida.


Try your next two guesses.. lol
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Good guess. Actually in my job anywhere along the entire east coast of Florida is a problem for me if a storm hits, so I watch them all.
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panhandle
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Heu jonelu, seems you're one them dangerous folks for my keyboard... nah, learned to keep ciggies and drink faaar away by now!
I have a store on Lake Ave, between K & J St. Why did you leave? LW is really a good place nowadays!
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1397. DFWjc
Quoting robj144:


Ummm... southeast Florida.


ROFLMAO!!!
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Quoting jeebsa:
Alot of Floridians on here were is everybody from?


Formerly the island of Trinidad. Now Tampa.

I'm a lurker but I do wish we could make hometowns visible on our posts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1395. robj144
Quoting NEFLWATCHING:
3 guesses where I am...


Ummm... southeast Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeebsa:
Palm City ( Martin County) Frances and Jeanne Vet.


Frances and Jean did a number up there, I remember 2004 - rough year. We only got fringe effects from them - 2 days without power from each. Wilma was our bad one - 2 weeks with no power.
Hope we don't get those kind of storms this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting LakeWorthFinn:
Link to Cuban radars

PS. Lotsa great weather people here, from young to old. I'm 61, thus minority :) living in Palm Beach County, SEFL, member since 2005. I've seen people "strongly" disagree (LOL!), seen trolls come and go and spewed tea over my keyboard many times reading posts from members with a fab sense of humor.
Sometimes what we see and think is not what is. Newbies are not always trolls and could be in real danger. Was nice to see kind, short replies to a cry of help from someone who may or may not need help.
Back to luwkin' mode to see if we'll get any rain from ex-Emily.


St Lucie, Fl lady here. And I agree that all newbies aren't trolls, but I bet that Shanghai guy was. ;)
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3 guesses where I am...
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Pat, can you post that beautiful LSU earth scan WV sattelite....ya know the golden one...:))
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1388. DFWjc
North Central Texas
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Quoting Patrap:

big change from earlier.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1386. jonelu
Quoting LakeWorthFinn:
Link to Cuban radars

PS. Lotsa great weather people here, from young to old. I'm 61, thus minority :) living in Palm Beach County, SEFL, member since 2005. I've seen people "strongly" disagree (LOL!), seen trolls come and go and spewed tea over my keyboard many times reading posts from members with a fab sense of humor.
Sometimes what we see and think is not what is. Newbies are not always trolls and could be in real danger. Was nice to see kind, short replies to a cry of help from someone who may or may not need help :)
Back to luwkin' mode to see if we'll get any rain from ex-Emily.
Hey Lake Worth. Im just north of u in WPB...I used to live on on N L St. Keep you tea away from your keyboard.
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1385. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3-day Space Weather Predictions
#
:Prediction_dates: 2011 Aug 06 2011 Aug 07 2011 Aug 08
:Geomagnetic_A_indices:
A_Fredericksburg 35 15 8
A_Planetary 35 18 10
#
# Predicted 3-hour Middle latitude k-indices
:Pred_Mid_k:
Mid/00-03UT 4 3 3
Mid/03-06UT 5 3 3
Mid/06-09UT 5 3 1
Mid/09-12UT 4 3 1
Mid/12-15UT 4 3 2
Mid/15-18UT 4 3 2
Mid/18-21UT 4 3 1
Mid/21-00UT 5 3 2
#
# Predicted 3-hour High latitude k-indices
:Pred_High_k:
High/00-03UT 5 3 2
High/03-06UT 4 3 3
High/06-09UT 5 4 1
High/09-12UT 5 4 2
High/12-15UT 5 4 3
High/15-18UT 5 3 3
High/18-21UT 4 3 2
High/21-00UT 4 3 2
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active 20 25 10
Mid/Minor_Storm 40 15 5
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm 35 5 0
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active 20 25 15
High/Minor_Storm 35 20 5
High/Major-Severe_Storm 40 15 0
#
# Polar Cap Absorption Forecast
:Polar_cap:
red
#
# Solar
:10cm_flux:
110 110 100
#
:Whole_Disk_Flare_Prob:
Class_M 40 40 35
Class_X 10 10 5
Proton 95 50 25
#
# Region Flare Probabilities for 2011 Aug 06
# Region Class C M X P
:Reg_Prob: 2011 Aug 05
1260 5 0 0 0
1261 75 30 5 5
1263 65 15 5 5
1266 5 0 0 0
1267 40 1 1 0
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Good evening from South Fla.. Davie... Missed the blog most of the day.. first see the rain and wind here tomorrow at 70% now I see at 30%.. so, I suspect the system is moving off to the North or NNW as discussed earlier in the morning..? Thanks.. Steve
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Quoting seafarer459:

.
Charleston here.
Come on, don't lie, you are really from Florida :)
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1382. jeebsa
I still do LOL I love it out there
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


used to go to the inlet there on a full moon to catch snook. Back in the older days...lol!
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Quoting jeebsa:
Alot of Floridians on here were is everybody from?


Boca Raton, FL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1380. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125524
Louisiana here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeebsa:
Palm City ( Martin County) Frances and Jeanne Vet.


used to go to the inlet there on a full moon to catch snook. Back in the older days...lol!

I mean Lighthouse point.
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Zephyrhills Fl. here back to lurking
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Quoting FloridaPA:

Were all from Florida


Not me I'm from Richmond VA.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
Link to Cuban radars

PS. Lotsa great weather people here, from young to old. I'm 61, thus minority :) living in Palm Beach County, SEFL, member since 2005. I've seen people "strongly" disagree (LOL!), seen trolls come and go and spewed tea over my keyboard many times reading posts from members with a fab sense of humor.
Sometimes what we see and think is not what is. Newbies are not always trolls and could be in real danger. Was nice to see kind, short replies to a cry of help from someone who may or may not need help.
Back to luwkin' mode to see if we'll get any rain from ex-Emily.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I've always been an Nvidia guy myself however, you have to make sure they are cooled efficiently, they get super hot. I am going to be building soon and I personally do Auto Cad, 3D rendering ect... only light gaming so I am going with a Nvidia Quadro, workstation class.
Id get the 6000 seems pretty slick, but i still need a answer about my question btw EVGA uses Nvidia cards just puts different coolers to keep them cooler than an avr card.
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1373. j2008
Quoting FloridaPA:

Were all from Florida

Oops I just ruined the Florida party LOL. So I see Ex-Emily is looking better, almost to the point of regeneration......Nice, got something to track over the weekend !! Hope you Floridians get some useful rain.
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1372. jeebsa
Palm City ( Martin County) Frances and Jeanne Vet.
Quoting avthunder:


Lighthouse Point - north of Ft Lauderdale, south of Boca. How about you?
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Texas Here.
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Quoting lovemamatus:
One week ago today, the PLANFALF model showed a Cat 3 Emily hitting between Myrtle and Wilmington. Thst is about to become a reality. McTavish numbers tonight 5.6, 6.4, 5.7. Look for rapid intensification tomorrow, right to Cat 1 by evening. Dr. Bongevine is the best out there.


Uh, what?
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Quoting hunkerdown:
NW to the West coast or East coast ?


Sorry, meant NW to the East coast of Fla. W coast would be WNW then a right turn.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.