Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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1469. newbee
Does the fact that there is a break in the ridge over the Atlantic and the US High, Does that mean no more storms from Africa will reach the Gulf. Or could the High Ridge back over the east coast.
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1468. ch2os
St. Lucie, Ft. Pierce specifically.
Just bring on the rain.....
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1467. hahaguy
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


Really? maybe I know you? Give me a hint.


What kind of hint lol.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I wouldn't blame you, it must be paradise down there :)
It is.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8279
St Augustine, FL here.
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Long time lurker in SE Louisiana
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Been to Grand Cayman once. Absolutely loved it.
When did you come and what area did you stay at ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8279
very obvious rotation, this things got a center again
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Quoting hahaguy:
Port St. Lucie


Really? maybe I know you? Give me a hint.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Since the current topic is where everyone is from I guess I will add my .02 worth. Originally from Middletown, Pa.(tiny borough of Harrisburg)then Kendall area of Miami, Fla. until 1973 and Grand Cayman from 1973 until currently and don't plan to go anywhere else.
I wouldn't blame you, it must be paradise down there :)
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North Palm Beach here!
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Quoting jeebsa:
Its good to put a name with your location. Now a lot of the comments make sense. LOL. Will we see any watches or warnings in the am?


FL is not even mentioned in the outlook, I highly doubt it. They seem rather confident that it will just destroy the beaches, AGAIN, and take away the minimal rain chances we had to begin with.
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It's getting late on your time so you guys sleep while i lurk on the other side of the world. :)
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1454. hahaguy
Port St. Lucie
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Found a great FREE iPhone app: iHurricane HD... great stuff..
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Since the current topic is where everyone is from I guess I will add my .02 worth. Originally from Middletown, Pa.(tiny borough of Harrisburg)then Kendall area of Miami, Fla. until 1973 and Grand Cayman from 1973 until currently and don't plan to go anywhere else.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8279
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I thought your name might have been NEFL? Apparently I was wrong. Weird names popping up nowadays.


That's funny ProPulse....lol...but you're right, there are some weird names these days, for sure...
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lol mucinex, I'm your occassional neighbor, west broward, fl here.

any thoughts on a possibility of a watch for sefl at 11pm? my local weather shows 50% of rain and winds of 5mph tomorrow.
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Quoting Hurricanes12:


Where do you think she's heading? In the TWO, the NHC didn't even mention that any part of Florida should monitor the progress of ex-Emily..


Whatever is left of it will more than likely move slowly WNW tonight, before taking off towards the NNW/N tomorrow. Should stay well off shore of Florida.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
1448. RickWPB
West Palm Beach, but most could figure that out already. ;^)
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West of Fort Lauderdale..
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1446. jeebsa
Its good to put a name with your location. Now a lot of the comments make sense. LOL. Will we see any watches or warnings in the am?
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1445. JGreco
Fl. Panhandle: The Fort Walton Beach-Destin area.
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Quoting rv1pop:
Far from FL although have had the RV there. And over 65. Met Dwight Eisenhower when he was a General..... So double in minority.

Praying for all those who might be in the path of any of these storms, Keep them off land until they can come in as a super rain generator and drench LA and TX.... Looking (prayer casting) for landfall East of Houston TX... Entirely possible in the Super-natural.
POP

.
@ POP, all kidding aside.The "greatest generation",will always be, within our hearts. God Bless ya buddy.
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Quoting jeebsa:
Alot of Floridians on here were is everybody from?


Dumpwater. The Bundy's come visit on every re-run.
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Still not much variation since early this morning..Link
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Quoting jeebsa:
Alot of Floridians on here were is everybody from?



Cape Coral, Florida here. Just a lurker but so love this site. Am learning so much.
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China evacuates 200,000 ahead of typhoon



CHINA has evacuated more than 200,000 people on its east coast and cancelled nearly 200 flights in preparation for the most powerful typhoon to hit the country in years.

Typhoon Muifa, packing winds of up to 162km/h, is expected to make landfall on China's east coast on Saturday evening or on Sunday local time, the official Xinhua news agency says.

The eastern province of Zhejiang, located south of Shanghai, had moved to safety just over 206,000 people from its coastal areas in the path of the typhoon by Friday evening, Xinhua said.

A weather official in Shanghai told local media the city had "basically ruled out" a direct hit, yet warned it might be close.

The typhoon would be the worst to affect China's commercial centre since 2005, when Typhoon Matsa killed seven people.

China Southern Airlines said it would cancel more than 140 flights to the east of the country from Saturday afternoon, while flag carrier Air China said it would cancel more than 30 flights, Xinhua said.
Shanghai also warned bullet train services might be slowed or halted because of the storm - a sensitive issue after a deadly high-speed train crash two weeks ago that was initially blamed on weather conditions.

China had called more than 9000 fishing boats back to harbour and cancelled ferry services on more than 20 routes.

Muifa lashed Japan's Okinawa island overnight, causing heavy rains, prompting flight cancellations and blackouts and leaving at least a dozen people with mostly light injuries.

China is braced for strong winds and torrential rain. Waves up to 4.5 metres are expected in coastal areas and up to 12 metres in the East China Sea.

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Quoting laguna2:

Strictly based on cloud pattern, this is a very healthy looking wave. I hadn't visited the blog since yesterday when Emily was nixed. (I'm usually a lurker, content to read opinions.) What's the feeling out there that this will be the next Invest?
na it was already an invest,if it reforms it would be TD Emily.
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Pocatello, Pocatello Regional Airport (KPIH)
Lat: 42.92028 Lon: -112.57111 Elev: 4449
Last Update on 05 Aug 19:53 MDT


Partly Cloudy

81°F
(27°C) Humidity: 28 %
Wind Speed: NW 3 MPH

Barometer: 30.01 in (1011.60 mb)
Dewpoint: 45°F (7°C)
Heat Index: 80°F (27°C)
Visibility: 10.00 Miles
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:


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Quoting hahaguy:

I wish st lucie was trasure island lol.


Dive Dive Dive!

...All I've ever found were fish
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Cloud tops in the center continue to warm, but thunderstorms are beginning to re-fire on the periphery. Ex-Emily looks primed for d-max.



Where do you think she's heading? In the TWO, the NHC didn't even mention that any part of Florida should monitor the progress of ex-Emily..
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Quoting NEFLWATCHING:
Didn't even notice your handle. Is it north east FLA? :)

Ding, ding ding... ;)


I thought your name might have been NEFL? Apparently I was wrong. Weird names popping up nowadays.
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Cloud tops in the center continue to warm, but thunderstorms are beginning to re-fire on the periphery. Ex-Emily looks primed for d-max.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
1432. Mucinex
Sawgrass Mills: Hurricane Food Court
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1431. hahaguy
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


no no we weren't guessing mine. I already told.. lol

I wish st lucie was trasure island lol.
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"Hot Mobile Al Here" :o)

Taco :o)
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Quoting robj144:


Sarcasm is difficult to show in a blog.


Oh, whew.. feel better now. ;)
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FL panhandle: Gulf Breeze - host to Erin, Opal, and Ivan
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Nice and calm in Boynton Beach Florida at the moment, hot hot,. Hopefully we may get some beneficial rain from ex-emily
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St. Pete, Florida here, although really all I do is lurk and (hopefully) learn.
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1425. robj144
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


Seriously? You were really just guessing? :O


Sarcasm is difficult to show in a blog.
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Pembroke Pines, Florida here. (Just west of Ft. Lauderdale)
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1423. laguna2
Quoting Patrap:

Strictly based on cloud pattern, this is a very healthy looking wave. I hadn't visited the blog since yesterday when Emily was nixed. (I'm usually a lurker, content to read opinions.) What's the feeling out there that this will be the next Invest?
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Hey, I know where Clematis Street is down there.
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Quoting robj144:


Didn't even notice your handle. Is it north east FLA? :)


Seriously? You were really just guessing? :O
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1420. jonelu
Quoting LakeWorthFinn:
Heu jonelu, seems you're one them dangerous folks for my keyboard... nah, learned to keep ciggies and drink faaar away by now!
I have a store on Lake Ave, between K & J St. Why did you leave? LW is really a good place nowadays!
Sold my house for some ridiculous price and moved to Spain for a year. Just bought an old Spanish in WPB for some ridiculously low price after renting for quite awhile. I just wish I could do the same in the stock market :-( I own a bar on Clematis....but I love Downtown Lake Worth.
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Didn't even notice your handle. Is it north east FLA? :)

Ding, ding ding... ;)
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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