Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting Patrap:

2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve



Wow!
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4167. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I did, just not going to travel down that road. Good thing too cause said poster has been removed.


Smart move. The best statement I ever made, were the words I never spoke.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4166. DFWjc
Quoting PcolaDan:


Does that really work? I mean, the point has already been made. (geez, I must be getting old)


but the real question is will anyone care?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4165. Patrap
I always fig'yad dat meant I dont know WTH Im yakking on a bout atall.
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4164. pottery
Quoting pottery:
It's a Madhouse in here tonight.
With a Resident Psycho too....



just sayin'.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24881
Quoting Patrap:
The rare double Blog Post with pic in "Dvorak".

Datz gotta be a bad sign fer someone.



Any way to kick up the shear another 5kts. I'm just asking for the ball to move about 20 miles or so?

Emily, such a tease, been since day 1, lol.
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Quoting Thrawst:


A lot. Particularly concerned with the GFS model though, what it shows.
Thrawst. R U East or West? was wondering after u didn't reply last night...

And how was Emily for you? LOL
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Quoting angiest:


You can say anything you want without offending anybody if you finish it off with Just saying.


Does that really work? I mean, the point has already been made. (geez, I must be getting old)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4159. 7544
did she just wobble sw doesnt seem to moving much tonight
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
I still don't see a N heading... if any heading at all...JSL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4157. DFWjc
Quoting NavarreMark:


Farts are okay though, as long as they're on topic.


I'm sorry I should have never mention farts in the first place...my bad
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4156. angiest
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Houston...we have a problem. Over

Yes, the problem is Houston is getting no rain from that.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting nigel20:

Thanks for thee update.


No problem!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4154. Patrap
The rare double Blog Post with pic in "Dvorak".

Datz gotta be a bad sign fer someone.

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Quoting Grothar:


Nothing to say PP?


I did, just not going to travel down that road. Good thing too cause said poster has been removed.
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Quoting pottery:
It's a Madhouse in here tonight.
With a Resident Psycho too....



yep..i agree
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Quoting PcolaDan:


At least they can light the way.



ouch!
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4150. angiest
Quoting PcolaDan:
BTW What does "just sayin" really mean :|


You can say anything you want without offending anybody if you finish it off with Just saying.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
4149. nigel20
Quoting angiest:


If that chart includes the Gulf, then the ridge of death may be contributing.

Thanks
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4148. JLPR2
Interesting...
Seems the spin off Africa is at the mid-levels.
The small LLC that accompanied it was disrupted by a larger circulation that came off Africa during the day.


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Houston...we have a problem. Over
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4146. Patrap

2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

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4145. Bielle
Quoting deaddude21:

You look at when the economy started to tumble however...didn't commence until the Democrats took control of congress back in 2006. Then came the Fannie-Mae and Freddie-Mac housing crisis which John McCain warned about before.


Enough with the politics, please. Just stop, whatever side you take just stop.
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BTW What does "just sayin" really mean :|
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4142. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
.


Nothing to say PP?
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Quoting InTheCone:



Would love it, but don't think so....

Well, I was thinking more likely later tonight.... lol.... looks like Emily is determined to prove me wrong...

Quoting IKE:

probably......
Unfairly...
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Quoting MississippiWx:
18z GFS says Negative NAO for the next 2 weeks:



Negative NAO,MJO over in Indian Ocean, spells BUSY BUSY BUSY??
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
4139. nigel20
Quoting caneswatch:


NHC/TAFB has a "nice"-looking storm east of the Bahamas and north of the Caribbean going into next week.

Thanks for thee update.
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Quoting angiest:


If that chart includes the Gulf, then the ridge of death may be contributing.

This one is for the Gulf. Other one was Tropical Atlantic.
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4136. nigel20
Quoting IceCoast:


From Dr. Masters Blog last season

"Vertical instability, which was unusually low since late July, has now returned to near normal levels over the tropical Atlantic (Figure 1), though it remains quite low over the rest of the North Atlantic. Instability is measured as the difference in temperature between the surface and the top of the troposphere (the highest altitude that thunderstorm tops can penetrate to.) If the surface is very warm and the top of the troposphere is cold, an unstable atmosphere results, which helps to enhance thunderstorm updrafts and promotes hurricane development. Since SSTs in the Atlantic were at record highs and upper tropospheric temperatures were several degrees cooler than average in July, enhancing instability, something else must have been going on to reduce instability. Dry air can act to reduce instability, and it appears that an unusually dry atmosphere, due to large-scale sinking over the Atlantic, was responsible for the lack of instability."

Thank you that was very informative.
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4135. Patrap
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)


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political blogs on WU

Link
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4133. pottery
It's a Madhouse in here tonight.
With a Resident Psycho too....

Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24881
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well said, Adrian, and worth repeating.

The pattern that I'm watching is not just the high setup, but the troughiness as well. When / Where a trough comes through can make a huge difference.


There are (so many variables) involved in determining where a hurricane eventually makes landfall. A small pocket of shear that develops in the mid Atlantic east of the Caribbean may delay development of a disturbance for a day. That delay in development might mean the difference in a Florida or East U.S. Coast hit or a Bermuda hit. Timing is everything.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
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Quoting PcolaDan:
politics and religion
2 ban-able offenses in here
seen it many times before


but not often enought....or soon enough in this case.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
But then that would save us having to read his posts and quotes of his posts...

Just sayin'....


So true.
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4126. angiest
There are places to discuss politics, and I respectfully submit this ain't one of 'em. #justsayin
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting nigel20:

Whats the cause of this?


From Dr. Masters Blog last season

"Vertical instability, which was unusually low since late July, has now returned to near normal levels over the tropical Atlantic (Figure 1), though it remains quite low over the rest of the North Atlantic. Instability is measured as the difference in temperature between the surface and the top of the troposphere (the highest altitude that thunderstorm tops can penetrate to.) If the surface is very warm and the top of the troposphere is cold, an unstable atmosphere results, which helps to enhance thunderstorm updrafts and promotes hurricane development. Since SSTs in the Atlantic were at record highs and upper tropospheric temperatures were several degrees cooler than average in July, enhancing instability, something else must have been going on to reduce instability. Dry air can act to reduce instability, and it appears that an unusually dry atmosphere, due to large-scale sinking over the Atlantic, was responsible for the lack of instability."
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Quoting hurricane23:


Not not nessary it all depends were the trof set up is and many other things that come into play. People sometimes dont understand how difficult it can be for a cv storm to make that trek. A pattern that would steer a Cape Verde Hurricane directly into Florida for example could exist for two months, but if there is no Hurricane to be steered the pattern is meaningless. Charley slammed into SW Florida because an early season trough just happened to be in the right place as Charley turned north in the Gulf. History shows most Tropical Cyclones that enter the Gulf pass west of the southwest coast of Florida and vent their fury from the Florida panhandle to Mexico. In 2007 we watched as two Cat 5 monsters traveled the whole length of the Caribbean but couldn't turn north because of the strong high pressure system to the north that happened to be in place at just the right time to protect Florida and the gulf coast. In 2004 and 2005 we watched as Charley, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita were able to get into the Gulf because they were not blocked. Regardless of how strong a Tropical Cyclone is, it always follows the path of least resistance. It's not "where" a Hurricane is, but "when".

Well said, Adrian, and worth repeating.

The pattern that I'm watching is not just the high setup, but the troughiness as well. When / Where a trough comes through can make a huge difference.
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It looks like Emily took another cigarette break since the 5:00 PM update. I have seen a couple of systems stall: Elena in 1985 & Frances in 2004 but Emily has done this about three times now. How many COC relocations?
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Quoting CatfishJones:


Inaudito: outrageous, unheard of. Grammar is usually a prerequisite. Also using Latin in a defacto manner, rather than a bricoluer style.(in the Levi-Strauss meaning, specifically making use of what one has; jury-rigging) But I digress. I'm done wasting space on you.
Catfish, when did you get the PHD? :)
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4120. angiest
Quoting nigel20:

Whats the cause of this?


If that chart includes the Gulf, then the ridge of death may be contributing.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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