Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


Don't quite a few move "stars" have places there? The 'no taxes' probably explains that..
CI is sounding like a nice place to retire..
A lot of Americans do retire down here and a lot of them have Time Shares at different resorts.
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This things set for DMAX.


Good divergence.


Decent convergence, especially considering how little it had in the past.


850 mb vort has been increasing throughout the day.


Shear decreasing around the system. Favorable.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23606
Sunrise, FL here (Fort Lauderdale area). Schooling and teaching in Boca Raton, 1.7 miles from the beach :)
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1516. Grothar
I believe someone posted this earlier. Looks pretty active for a bit.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
No, in East End at the other end of the island. Most tourists visit the P.O. @ Hell so they can get their postcards stamped with Hell on it.

Yeah, I skipped that part. Just took a picture instead ;)
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:

You don't work at the Post Office in Hell, do you? that was one of our tourist stops! haha
No, in East End at the other end of the island. Most tourists visit the P.O. @ Hell so they can get their postcards stamped with Hell on it.
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Quoting robj144:


Most likely have to worry more about the geomagnetic storm than Emily.


What? Tomorrow? :o
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Good evening! I have a question for the experts,in my opinion of following Hurricanes for more than 25 years as a hobby,I believe ex-Emily stall because she hit a wall going NW,meaning the high in the Gulf of Mexico,I live in Miami and was hoping for a a moderate Tropical Storm because we need the rain,but I just got the feeling that unless something happens with the High to the West and to the East,ex-Emily have only one way to go up North,even our Channel 4 Met which I really like mention that he was inclining not to follow the most sophisticated Models track,but the Ban's (because in Emily case this models has being more reliable) this models take ex-Emily into South Florida west coast and then re-curve to the NE.Any thoughts about this??,any possibility of ex-Emily coming to South Florida?.Thank you.
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Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, CI. Thought we were seeing things last night. I knew she had something left in her. What does everyone think the 11:00 PM will read.
Remnants of TS Emily continues to show signs of organization. I think though she will stay at 70%.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't know if they have places here although I am sure some do. Quite a few visit on a regular basis and of course have off shore accounts. LOL Tiger Woods visits on his yacht regularly and anchors off East End.

You don't work at the Post Office in Hell, do you? that was one of our tourist stops! haha
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1509. cwf1069
West Miami area here.
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Quoting robie1conobie:
I I'm from gulf breeze also.
My uncle and his family live in Gulf Breeze and my Dad lives in Dunedin.
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1507. Grothar
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Well, she is doing her best to take advantage of her second life. Not looking bad at all today and tonight. Sitting just north of Eastern Cuba. Model consensus is still for a track to the WNW/NW and then NE out of the picture. She is trying to regenerate right to the North of the area we spoke about last night.


Thanks, CI. Thought we were seeing things last night. I knew she had something left in her. What does everyone think the 11:00 PM will read.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
1506. robj144
Quoting Hurricanes12:
What conditions should Florida feel tomorrow?


Most likely have to worry more about the geomagnetic storm than Emily.
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


Don't quite a few move "stars" have places there? The 'no taxes' probably explains that..
CI is sounding like a nice place to retire..
I don't know if they have places here although I am sure some do. Quite a few visit on a regular basis and of course have off shore accounts. LOL Tiger Woods visits on his yacht regularly and anchors off East End.
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I
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Merritt Island, Brevard County
Quoting emeraldcoast:
FL panhandle: Gulf Breeze - host to Erin, Opal, and Ivan
I'm from gulf breeze also.
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What conditions should Florida feel tomorrow?
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Quoting stillwaiting:
siesta key,sarasota,fl...countries best beach!!!,and nwe ever have to worry about hurricanes



Charley 04 ring a bell?
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1501. ackee
I think Emily will be back by early 11am guess we see
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1500. Grothar
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


But the Norwegian is outstanding!


Takk!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
1499. hahaguy
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


OK, don't worry. I'm just being nosy. Just thought it'd be funny if I knew you in "real" life here in town.


Not a problem. I just don't know where you would know me from.
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Port Saint Lucie
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X-Em has stopped moving? So it appears from radar out of Miami and Key West. It is in the same place as it was at 4:30 this afternoon
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1496. JLPR2
I see the GFS, Nogaps, ECMWF and the CMC(hints at it) have Franklin as a CV storm.
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Where does Emily go from here
A) through the Bahamas out to sea
B) Up the east Coast of FL then out to sea
C) UP the East coast of FL. then into NC/SC
D) Landfall in FL and up the coast inland
E) up the West Coast of Fl.
my answer in Bold.
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Charleston, SC here just watching and learning
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siesta key,sarasota,fl...countries best beach!!!,and nwe ever have to worry about hurricanes
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Quoting hahaguy:


I don't know lol.


OK, don't worry. I'm just being nosy. Just thought it'd be funny if I knew you in "real" life here in town.
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, CI. Mind giving me a quick update. Just flew in and haven't seen anything on Emily since this afternoon. Too tired to look back at everything. Besides, the poor English in the blogs really has me confused. (LOL)
Well, she is doing her best to take advantage of her second life. Not looking bad at all today and tonight. Sitting just north of Eastern Cuba. Model consensus is still for a track to the WNW/NW and then NE out of the picture. She is trying to regenerate right to the North of the area we spoke about last night.
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Quoting newbee:
Does the fact that there is a break in the ridge over the Atlantic and the US High, Does that mean no more storms from Africa will reach the Gulf. Or could the High Ridge back over the east coast.


The weather pattern changes frequently. Timing of trofs means everything when a system is moving in from Africa. It's impossible to know how the steering pattern will setup for the next system. Chances are that the Gulf of Mexico will see a hurricane sometime this year. Where it goes and when it forms is anyone's guess. The same can be said for off the East Coast. The odds of the US not receiving a strike from a hurricane for a third consecutive year is low.
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1489. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
1488. DFWjc
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
It is wonderful to see so many long time lurkers posting on the blog. Wish ya'll would post more often. :)...and I'm from Mississippi.


just think when we were at 5k post, we've could have been a 7-8k post 3 blogs ago...
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Still is expensive but our rate of pay is decent and best part is no taxes. Whatever we make is what we take home. Plus, I work for the Postal s
ervice which is government so I get free health insurance and don't pay pension.


Don't quite a few move "stars" have places there? The 'no taxes' probably explains that..
CI is sounding like a nice place to retire..
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1486. palmpt
Quoting NEFLWATCHING:

"St Augustine, FL here."

Ya got me - me too.




Biloxi... Mobile... And Turks and Caicos whenever we can get there!
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Good evening! I have a question for the experts,in my opinion of following Hurricanes for more than 25 years as a hobby,I believe ex-Emily stall because she hit a wall going NW,meaning the high in the Gulf of Mexico,I live in Miami and was hoping for a a moderate Tropical Storm because we need the rain,but I just got the feeling that unless something happens with the High to the West and to the East,ex-Emily have only one way to go up North,even our Channel 4 Met which I really like mention that he was inclining not to follow the most sophisticated Models track,but the Ban's which take ex-Emily into South Florida west coast and then re-curve to the NE.Any thoughts about this??,any possibility of ex-Emily coming to South Florida?.Thank you.
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1484. Thrawst
Wind is ESE at 7-8 mph in Nassau :P
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It is wonderful to see so many long time lurkers posting on the blog. Wish ya'll would post more often. :)...and I'm from Mississippi.
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, CI. Mind giving me a quick update. Just flew in and haven't seen anything on Emily since this afternoon. Too tired to look back at everything. Besides, the poor English in the blogs really has me confused. (LOL)


But the Norwegian is outstanding!
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1480. hahaguy
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:

Like where would I know you from? haha


I don't know lol.
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


I went there on a cruise once. Just did the tourist thing. Was expensive there from what I recall.. haha
Still is expensive but our rate of pay is decent and best part is no taxes. Whatever we make is what we take home. Plus, I work for the Postal Service which is government so I get free health insurance and don't pay pension.
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Transplant to Florida Big Bend here........Went through Andrew in South Florida in 92.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8822
1477. newbee
Living in Pensacola Florida about 10 miles from the Alabama Border
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


That's funny ProPulse....lol...but you're right, there are some weird names these days, for sure...



I never second guess anymore, so many nationalities live in FL. Most recent odd name was Nafa so you get my point, lol. However, I was indeed joking about NEFL.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
Long time watcher, From Tornado & now Drought ravaged S. W. Missouri. Dont speak cause some of you are MEEEAAN to just plain, non weather proffs. (I'm sure that will set someone off),Still, cant tear myself away during the Season.
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Quoting hahaguy:


What kind of hint lol.

Like where would I know you from? haha
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1472. Grothar
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Since the current topic is where everyone is from I guess I will add my .02 worth. Originally from Middletown, Pa.(tiny borough of Harrisburg)then Kendall area of Miami, Fla. until 1973 and Grand Cayman from 1973 until currently and don't plan to go anywhere else.


Hey, CI. Mind giving me a quick update. Just flew in and haven't seen anything on Emily since this afternoon. Too tired to look back at everything. Besides, the poor English in the blogs really has me confused. (LOL)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
When did you come and what area did you stay at ?


I went there on a cruise once. Just did the tourist thing. Was expensive there from what I recall.. haha
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"St Augustine, FL here."

Ya got me - me too.


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1469. newbee
Does the fact that there is a break in the ridge over the Atlantic and the US High, Does that mean no more storms from Africa will reach the Gulf. Or could the High Ridge back over the east coast.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.