Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


2004, with 8.
Alex, Bonnie, Charley, Danielle, Earl, Frances, Gaston, and Hermine. Though, Alex formed on the 31st of July it was named on the 1st of August.


It actually happened first in 1995.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"Why is everybody posting their location?"

I can answer that - because so many of us are from Florida, it's almost mid-August, and we are blessed not to have some monster lurking on our doorstep.

G'nght, all.

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1617. SQUAWK
Quoting hurricane23:
Experience has shown that when a TC passes east of Florida, we are generally left high and dry for the most part. There will be some enhancement of shower activity on Saturday,but not any kind of prolonged deluge kind of rains that last for more than 12 hours, which is TPC's criterion for mentioning 'heavy rain's in there TWOs.


Hey "killer," good to see you.
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Quoting European58:
Strange place in your eyes probably:
Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Hey can you go outside and look at the sky if its still dark there? Auora should be going on outside its reaching as far south a germany.
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1615. GetReal
Quoting GTcooliebai:
the weakness is clearly there though, I wonder what's not making her go north since the NHC and all the models believe she will go north?



That flow from out of the NE on the WV loop, IMO, is what is preventing Emily from going north.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
1614. Grothar
Quoting European58:
Strange place in your eyes probably:
Dordrecht, The Netherlands.


Welkom! Waarom ben je zo laat?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam watchin very closly and i do beleive regeneration has or is about to commence

Probably completed at DMAX. Or earlier.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1612. BrandiQ
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Did you see the tornado yesterday?

I'm from....underground.;)


No my mom did though...
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Quoting ackee:
WHat the most storm we have ever had in AUG ?



2004, with 8.
Alex, Bonnie, Charley, Danielle, Earl, Frances, Gaston, and Hermine. Though, Alex formed on the 31st of July it was named on the 1st of August.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Hi
Why is everybody posting their location?


Why not?
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1608. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Hi
Why is everybody posting their location?
roll call
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Quoting Bobbyweather:
Hi
Why is everybody posting their location?


Somebody mentioned it and it just caught on.
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1606. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

lol she'll come back.
iam watchin very closly and i do believe regeneration has or is about to commence
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Hi
Why is everybody posting their location?
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Vero Beach FL here - right between all you folks from Brevard & St. Lucie counties.
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Boy, a lot of us Brevard County people on here tonight... although there is nothing better to do in this county


Another Brevard County here, Viera!
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Quoting Grothar:


I would hope not all at the same time?


That order....:^)
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Quoting GetReal:




Emily mess is going nowhere fast tonight... IMO a drift towards the WNW is possible in the near future.
the weakness is clearly there though, I wonder what's not making her go north since the NHC and all the models believe she will go north?
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I live in Bonita Springs (SW Florida) and have been reading this blog for several years. It is especially warm here right now.
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Strange place in your eyes probably:
Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
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"I'm from....underground.;)"
LOL - as in the spuds?
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1597. Grothar
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I tried to be a good visitor when in foreign countries. I used to be able to order 2 beers, say; hello, thank you, and where is the bathroom? in 5 languages.


I would hope not all at the same time?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1596. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
POSS T.C.F.W.
05L/XX/XX
MARK
23.69N/76.33W
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Clearwater. Since were all speaking up.
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Quoting BrandiQ:
It seems everyone is posting where they are from... I'm in Tamarac fl...


Did you see the tornado yesterday?

I'm from....underground.;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back,
was out riging around, but wanted to check back in...
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1592. GetReal
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
Experience has shown that when a TC passes east of Florida, we are generally left high and dry for the most part. There will be some enhancement of shower activity on Saturday,but not any kind of prolonged deluge kind of rains that last for more than 12 hours, which is TPC's criterion for mentioning 'heavy rain's in there TWOs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1590. BrandiQ
It seems everyone is posting where they are from... I'm in Tamarac fl...
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Check the loop of this long range radar out of Miami... note a decent circulation moving WNW, with some pretty good convection right now

Link
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1588. Torgen
Heyo folks, guess Emily's still in the grave. Gonna order a truckload of mulch and potting soil tomorrow, which just might taunt her back to life.

Just saying.
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1587. 10Speed
Sebring, FL
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"awaken my pretty"

PLEASE say your are not speaking to our little Ems...

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
awaken my pretty

lol she'll come back.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1584. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
awaken my pretty
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1583. Grothar
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Grothar...glad you're back home once again...ya just becoming a traveling man....


Thanks, EYES, glad to be back.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Keep an eye 19.7N/78W also! Goodnight
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Quoting Floodman:


Nope...three solid years of above average hail events across the country caused your insurance rate hike. The big carriers are reactive; they don't do a great deal of what if scenarios. They stay nice and conservative and act after the fact


FLOOD!!!!!!
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Why are models indicating that Emily will track north if the movement and steering currents will continue to be WNW/NW?
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Orlando Fl here near Seaworld. Originally from right west of New Orleans; been here for almost 7 years.
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Sarasota here, west central coast of Florida.....
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
POSS T.C.F.W.
05L/XX/XX
MARK
23.69N/76.33W
More convection fireing on last frame. Funny this might have what Emily needed to really get reorginized.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Texas here, 106 was my coolest high this week. This must be a Florida Blog? :) Get a storm brewing in the gulf and send it this way.

We'd like to get something going for you, but we're not in charge!
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Quoting NEFLWATCHING:
Well, that explains the recent insurance hike.


Nope...three solid years of above average hail events across the country caused your insurance rate hike. The big carriers are reactive; they don't do a great deal of what if scenarios. They stay nice and conservative and act after the fact
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North Fort Myers, FL here!! Hoping Ex-Emily gives us some rain...
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Hallandale Beach, FL here. Right on the intracoastal.
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1572. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
POSS T.C.F.W.
05L/XX/XX
MARK
23.69N/76.33W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Texas here, 106 was my coolest high this week. This must be a Florida Blog? :) Get a storm brewing in the gulf and send it this way.
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Quoting scottiesaunt:



Charley 04 ring a bell?
,not a gust over 40mph here onsiesta when charly passed,had stronger winds with frances and jeaane hers
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1569. GetReal




Emily mess is going nowhere fast tonight... IMO a drift towards the WNW is possible in the near future.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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