Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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1669. robj144
So has anyone seen the aurora yet?
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1hr 16min old

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Still too light out to see if the aurora is visible here in Idaho....I'll check in an hour or so.
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Cybrted, 2010 had ONE OF THE most active septembers to date...
8 storms
Sept.Gaston, Hermine, Igor, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole
Oct. Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas...
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Puerto Rico here. I have seen others from here,so I am not the only one.
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1664. Hattie
Vancouver,BC, Canada
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Quoting markw:
Evening everyone, semi long time lurker here.

Have not been posting because I'm dumb as a stump when it comes to knowing much about the who what where when and why of predicting weather....and you probably don't need anyone else who knows nothing pretending he does.

I can follow a lot of the posts but have to do a lot of "looking up", abbreviations,etc, for anything to make sense. About the only abbreviation I'm really sure of is ATM.

My wife and I are retired, live in NW Houston, outside city limits. She's from Kansas...and I'm an old Louisiana guy..born in Lisbon, which is about 17 miles from Homer, which is roughly 22 miles from Minden, ..which is..well it's NW Louisiana.

Tropical storms interest me because of, where we live and because I spent a good 20 years in South America and around the Caribbean.

So that covers that. I'll try and become educated enough to post some worthwhile comment from time to time. It's a good site.

Thanks, Mark... in Houston


ATM...at the moment... :)
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:



This is the waterspout spotted here in Grand Cayman today.

I used to see these constantly in the pacific. I never heard of any damage from them.
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Off-Topic, but look at this composite of last year's 12 hurricanes. Paula/Richard are merged XD
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
Quoting Grothar:


If it works, it is OK. Nice city you are from.


You are familiar?
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
wow the northern lights may reach this far south where i am wow...this is from our local news
KRGV Weather It's a very rare thing to see auroras this far south, but this seems to be a pretty severe geomagnetic storm. I've only seen the Northern Lights one time in thirty years here in the Valley. The experts say the lights could be visible as far south as Panama. If you're up late - keep an eye on the sky!
South America?! Holy crap this can take out some satilites.
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1658. GetReal
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I wonder if that is coming from the Texas Ridge, and is that ridge moving east or west?


It is crawling east, but has become stronger, and currently centered over central MS tonight.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8802
1657. robj144
Quoting markw:
Evening everyone, semi long time lurker here.

Have not been posting because I'm dumb as a stump when it comes to knowing much about the who what where when and why of predicting weather....and you probably don't need anyone else who knows nothing pretending he does.

I can follow a lot of the posts but have to do a lot of "looking up", abbreviations,etc, for anything to make sense. About the only abbreviation I'm really sure of is ATM.

My wife and I are retired, live in NW Houston, outside city limits. She's from Kansas...and I'm an old Louisiana guy..born in Lisbon, which is about 17 miles from Homer, which is roughly 22 miles from Minden, ..which is..well it's NW Louisiana.

Tropical storms interest me because of, where we live and because I spent a good 20 years in South America and around the Caribbean.

So that covers that. I'll try and become educated enough to post some worthwhile comment from time to time. It's a good site.

Thanks, Mark... in Houston


Nice intro, but has it taken 8 years to introduce yourself? Is that correct... you joined in 2003 and this is your first post?
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Quoting Grothar:


Everybody has to be somewhere. If you are not there, you must be somewhere else. Where are you from?

We're all here because we're not all there. :)

Wonder if this CME blast is what has TX ERCOT cautioning about rolling blackouts - on TOP of the record usage.
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Port St. Lucie, FL. Hot and humid. No breeze. Like a sauna out there at 11:15pm.
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Caribbean Update August 5th 2011
Link
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Quoting AussieStorm:
If your happy to post your location on here, Also I have a blog that everyone can put there location on. Will be very handy if ever we have a land-falling Hurricane. Currently have 82 location comments.


I don't think that I'm going to experience a landfall over here. At least, I don't hope so.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

2004 and 2010 used the same naming lists. 2004 had a record August, and 2010 had a record September. Interesting. Will 2016 (Next year to use the list) have a record October?


2007 and 2002 also had 8 named storms in September.
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
wow the northern lights may reach this far south where i am wow...this is from our local news
KRGV Weather It's a very rare thing to see auroras this far south, but this seems to be a pretty severe geomagnetic storm. I've only seen the Northern Lights one time in thirty years here in the Valley. The experts say the lights could be visible as far south as Panama. If you're up late - keep an eye on the sky!
Panama?? Then I can see it here in FL.?
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1649. Grothar
Quoting European58:


Well, it's just past 5 am local time. Like to stay up quite long. Enjoying a nice glass of whiskey and a lurk at the blog.


If it works, it is OK. Nice city you are from.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23710
1648. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting European58:


Well, it's just past 5 am local time. Like to stay up quite long. Enjoying a nice glass of whiskey and a lurk at the blog.
welcome drop by from time to time there is a good bunch here this is a good place with some bumps and dips in the road
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:



This is the waterspout spotted here in Grand Cayman today.


Very nice pictures, as well.
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Ex- TS Emily seems to have increased organization slightly...anybody know what the chances might be of a land threat IF regeneration does occur?
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1645. markw
Evening everyone, semi long time lurker here.

Have not been posting because I'm dumb as a stump when it comes to knowing much about the who what where when and why of predicting weather....and you probably don't need anyone else who knows nothing pretending he does.

I can follow a lot of the posts but have to do a lot of "looking up", abbreviations,etc, for anything to make sense. About the only abbreviation I'm really sure of is ATM.

My wife and I are retired, live in NW Houston, outside city limits. She's from Kansas...and I'm an old Louisiana guy..born in Lisbon, which is about 17 miles from Homer, which is roughly 22 miles from Minden, ..which is..well it's NW Louisiana.

Tropical storms interest me because of, where we live and because I spent a good 20 years in South America and around the Caribbean.

So that covers that. I'll try and become educated enough to post some worthwhile comment from time to time. It's a good site.

Thanks, Mark... in Houston
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This is the waterspout spotted here in Grand Cayman today.
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I always forget where I'm from. :|
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1642. ffly
Ohh shes gone,well maybe Emily will come back but only as a rain event/class 0 storm, White City Has had enough.
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Quoting emcf30:
This is the waterspout that came ashore earlier this evening the dewey was talking about earlier. this occurred in Eustis just to the NE of Orlando.







Very nice rotation in that cell.
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1640. DFWjc
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I wonder if that is coming from the Texas Ridge, and is that ridge moving east or west?


Let's put it this way it's moved from the Panhandle to NE Texas in 18 days....
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Naples, Fl !!
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If your happy to post your location on here, Also I have a blog that everyone can put there location on. Will be very handy if ever we have a land-falling Hurricane. Currently have 82 location comments. And my all time Lightning capture photo.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Hey can you go outside and look at the sky if its still dark there? Auora should be going on outside its reaching as far south a germany.


Just clouds as far as I can see.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


2004, with 8.
Alex, Bonnie, Charley, Danielle, Earl, Frances, Gaston, and Hermine. Though, Alex formed on the 31st of July it was named on the 1st of August.

2004 and 2010 used the same naming lists. 2004 had a record August, and 2010 had a record September. Interesting. Will 2016 (Next year to use the list) have a record October?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
Quoting GetReal:



That flow from out of the NE on the WV loop, IMO, is what is preventing Emily from going north.
I wonder if that is coming from the Texas Ridge, and is that ridge moving east or west?
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Quoting emcf30:
This is the waterspout that came ashore earlier this evening the dewey was talking about earlier. this occurred in Eustis just to the NE of Orlando.







nice pics!
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Quoting Grothar:


Welkom! Waarom ben je zo laat?


Well, it's just past 5 am local time. Like to stay up quite long. Enjoying a nice glass of whiskey and a lurk at the blog.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It actually happened first in 1995.


Alex was named on August 1st, when it became a depression on the 31st of July. Erin formed and was named on the 31st. So, 1995 had 7. 2004 had 8. Pretty active Augusts though for sure.
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St. Augustine, Fl. Here.
Been lurking here since at least 2003 or 2004. I guess I'm good at keeping my mouth shut and fingers still.
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1630. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting NEFLWATCHING:
"Why is everybody posting their location?"

I can answer that - because so many of us are from Florida, it's almost mid-August, and we are blessed not to have some monster lurking on our doorstep.

G'nght, all.

don't be so sure of that this is more complex than rocket science
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


15 years ago. Nice B&B
In West Bay ? Lots of changes in 15 years. We even have a Ritz Carlton now built by Dart. Ivan demolished the Hyatt beyond repair.
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The Witch of the East is moving slowly NW, as evidenced by Cuban Radar.

So where's Glinda? I guess we'll see if she arrives in time.

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1626. Grothar
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Hi
Why is everybody posting their location?


Everybody has to be somewhere. If you are not there, you must be somewhere else. Where are you from?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23710
Quoting druseljic:


Somebody mentioned it and it just caught on.

Hmmm. Well I'm from Seoul; I used to live in the US for about three years
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Bohonk, was 106 to 109 here ALL WEEK LONG...
just feels like desert-land... Dewpoints in 20's...
just sadly DRY...

from the looks of the enso forecast, La nina returns next year, and we all know what that means...
Another active hurricane season, of probably 13 to 17 Named storms...
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1623. emcf30
This is the waterspout that came ashore earlier this evening the dewey was talking about earlier. this occurred in Eustis just to the NE of Orlando.





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Haha, I'm in Melbourne. Its brevarded.
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Quoting BonitaGramma:
I live in Bonita Springs (SW Florida) and have been reading this blog for several years. It is especially warm here right now.


Probably because the you know what is getting deep. LOL
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1620. jeebsa
See great conversation on where everybody is with some Emily thrown in. She has been a real tough one to forecast so I had to change it up alittle bit to relieve the stress. LOL
Member Since: June 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 266
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2004, with 8.
Alex, Bonnie, Charley, Danielle, Earl, Frances, Gaston, and Hermine. Though, Alex formed on the 31st of July it was named on the 1st of August.


It actually happened first in 1995.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.