Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

Share this Blog
24
+

Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1719 - 1669

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89Blog Index

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Quoting PregressivePlus Surface map:
You see that low pressure in NE GOM, that is the trough split that could give Ex-Emily a weakness and allow her to head a little further west before curving out...



Yeah, I see that. That's been an eventual player since day 1. Just wonder why the forecasts aside from that surface map are completely opposite.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
It says the northern lights should begin at midnight.
not for you your in TX, im in MA so i will see them
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back early tomorrow, Going to watch some TV, Gnite everyone...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
DAM, see what you started? Sure, pick on the tuber.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1715. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting aquak9:


actually we got maybe 4-8 local lurkers...but mostly they are shy...very rarely do I see'm posting. Jax82, UNF97, MahFL, StAugustine...got a few more out beaches way, further south a'here.

Auroras? Never here.


it can happen city lights make em faint need to be in dark urban areas to see it more vividly but depending on how strong you can see em i see almost every jan and feb normaly on the coldest nights of the year very rare during summer unless you are north of 60
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Night, you extremely annoying system:
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1713. robj144
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

It should, its supposed to go all the way to Panama South America.


Do you have a source because I don't really believe it will get as far south as Panama?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is it lurking when you are trying to learn and do not have the vocab and knowledge to add thoughtful comment to the discussion ?

Then I am a lurker too ...

Thanks evryone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
It says the northern lights should begin at midnight.


I looked out my front door (which faces north) and I see some lights.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1710. DFWjc
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Beautiful and clean city, no wonder they hosted the winter Olympics there.


If you ever want to experience their city's hospitality, get a bed and breakfast up the over looking deep cove area.. So beautiful to wake up to...and the people are so nice!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It says the northern lights should begin at midnight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:


actually we got maybe 4-8 local lurkers...but mostly they are shy...very rarely do I see'm posting. Jax82, UNF97, MahFL, StAugustine...got a few more out beaches way, further south a'here.

Auroras? Never here.

I remember seeing auroras from Jax one night in the late 80's/early 90's caused by a CME. Wasn't that bright but still just barely visible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1707. emcf30
Whats in the punch, I will try some...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PregressivePlus Surface map:
You see that low pressure in NE GOM, that is the trough split that could give Ex-Emily a weakness and allow her to head a little further west before curving out...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1705. Grothar
Quoting aquak9:


actually we got maybe 4-8 local lurkers...but mostly they are shy...very rarely do I see'm posting. Jax82, UNF97, MahFL, StAugustine...got a few more out beaches way, further south a'here.

Auroras? Never here.


Auroras have been seen this far South before. Rare, but it does happen. In Northern Norway, we could see them almost everynight. Ask Patrap!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26825
Quoting aislinnpaps:
If the aurora gets as far south as Louisiana, someone call me! Sigh, I hate the thought of sleeping through it though I have a feeling most of us will.

It should, its supposed to go all the way to Panama South America.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


Mr Potato Head


Nah, suspect it was MRS PH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Well there shouldn't be any doubts where the NHC expects it to go.


You would think so however, that is not the talk of the local NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
921 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

.UPDATE...
THE REMNANT LOW THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CENTRAL CUBA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE
WEAK LOW THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON OVER THE WEST
COAST METRO AREAS AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND BE GONE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THIS DRY AIR WILL ALSO ONLY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PUSH WEST INTO THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS OF
THE CWA AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS INTO THIS AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW END POPS
FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE GOING DRY.
FOR REST OF THE CWA...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS FOR TONIGHT.

IF THE LOW STRENGTHENS SOME TONIGHT THEN THE DRY AIR THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA COULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. IF THIS HAPPENS THEN THE POPS MIGHT HAVE TO BE LOWER FOR
THE CWA IN THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE ON SATURDAY FOR THIS WEEKEND.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


Mr Potato Head


he didn't let her loose, she ripped his arms off and ran away.... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tiggeriffic:


what part of Idaho? I have a friend in Boise...


East Idaho...between Pocatello and Idaho Falls.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey DAM and emcf.....I wish I could serve some petit-fores and punch..:)))
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1698. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Of course you're not the only one here from PR! Most of the PR bloggers have PR or pr in their names.


yep we are the international underground
we are legions we are many
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Good grief, who let you loose tonight.


Mr Potato Head
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If the aurora gets as far south as Louisiana, someone call me! Sigh, I hate the thought of sleeping through it though I have a feeling most of us will.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Central florida here. Lurker mostly but learning a lot. Thanks to everyone here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:



Yes, quite. I grew up in Germany and Norway mostly, but lived in a number of countries. I used to go there for the Jazz festivals. Beautiful city.


I can only agree.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1693. aquak9
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
Jacksonville,fl here...Been lurking on here since september 8th,2009 :)


actually we got maybe 4-8 local lurkers...but mostly they are shy...very rarely do I see'm posting. Jax82, UNF97, MahFL, StAugustine...got a few more out beaches way, further south a'here.

Auroras? Never here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1692. emcf30
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
I feel like we're having a nice little social event... !! Weather with a social atmosphere...I like it !

Agreed. It is a nice change for once..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
1hr 16min old

Well there shouldn't be any doubts where the NHC expects it to go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there could be GPS and SAT interruptions beginning by dawn tomorrow so they say iam awaiting 2 33 am to go to roof of building to see if anything is visible in my location
Were u at? Im going to the Ocean same time to see if i can see anything, Seaside Fl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1689. robj144
It looks like the aurora is as far south as about Pennsylvania so far. Wish I was up north right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hattie:
Vancouver,BC, Canada
Beautiful and clean city, no wonder they hosted the winter Olympics there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
I feel like we're having a nice little social event... !! Weather with a social atmosphere...I like it !


+1

Hey EYES!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1686. Grothar
Quoting European58:


You are familiar?



Yes, quite. I grew up in Germany and Norway mostly, but lived in a number of countries. I used to go there for the Jazz festivals. Beautiful city.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26825
Port Saint Lucie, FL
I hope we get some rain soon to cool things off!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
I feel like we're having a nice little social event... !! Weather with a social atmosphere...I like it !
Better enjoy it while it lasts :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Puerto Rico here. I have seen others from here,so I am not the only one.

Of course you're not the only one here from PR! Most of the PR bloggers have PR or pr in their names.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Finally! A topic that doesn't start an arguement!

(I'm resisting the impulse to say something irritating.):/


Good grief, who let you loose tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Thanks for the pics CI.
Now, that's one stout spout!
Maybe it's something in the waters around the CI?
Maybe something caused by Emily ? Remember we are not that far south form where she is stirring up the atmosphere.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I feel like we're having a nice little social event... !! Weather with a social atmosphere...I like it !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Cybrted, 2010 had ONE OF THE most active septembers to date...
8 storms
Sept.Gaston, Hermine, Igor, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole
Oct. Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas...


Tied with 2002 and 2007.

2004 though, had 8 in August.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Finally! A topic that doesn't start an argument!

(I'm resisting the impulse to say something irritating.):/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1677. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
South America?! Holy crap this can take out some satilites.
there could be GPS and SAT interruptions beginning by dawn tomorrow so they say iam awaiting 2 33 am to go to roof of building to see if anything is visible in my location
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DFWjc:


Let's put it this way it's moved from the Panhandle to NE Texas in 18 days....
well better question would be is it expanding eastward?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Still too light out to see if the aurora is visible here in Idaho....I'll check in an hour or so.


what part of Idaho? I have a friend in Boise...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FloridaPA:

I used to see these constantly in the pacific. I never heard of any damage from them.
We have had a few make it on to land but only very minor damage.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:
So has anyone seen the aurora yet?


I haven't seen anything, yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jacksonville,fl here...Been lurking on here since september 8th,2009 :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1671. aquak9
My location? heck I don't know...I'm on my back porch.

Hi Keeper- hi everyone! nice pics of a coupla waterspouts back aways.

two new NE Fla lurkers, I see. HHMMMmmmmm....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:



This is the waterspout spotted here in Grand Cayman today.
Thanks for the pics CI.
Now, that's one stout spout!
Maybe it's something in the waters around the CI?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1669. robj144
So has anyone seen the aurora yet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1719 - 1669

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
46 °F
Overcast