Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Remember PI...You're that southern born boy...who went Yankee....lol...:/


Few Yankees this far west lots more in Fl.
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Evening, all. Just a quick lookin to say it looks like we are on schedule for rain / thundershowers from ex-Emily. I just heard some thunder off to the SE, so I guess we'll get some rain soon.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
00z GFS still holding onto the possible Cape Verde development next week.

GFS 60 hours:

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Quoting 786:


Thanks! That makes a lot of sense, I can read it much better now


You're welcome. It gets more in depth than that, but that's a foundation for you. :-)
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1814. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
That is some pretty interesting steering.



Looks all west for a while.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1813. newbee
Are the tropics becoming more like 2004 that gave us Ivan in the Gulf
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1812. robj144
Quoting EricSFL:


Yes, there is. Link


Thanks. That's probably the Panama they're talking about.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:




I have lived in Winter Park, Mount Dora, and Sorrento. But now I live in ....hmmm....where am I?


How do we know, your pseudonym says it's private.
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1810. Grothar
Quoting aislinnpaps:


*G* It's not me you have to worry about now, my youngest just got her license today!


I hear you. I still get nervous driving with my youngest. I think I will feel better next year when he turns 29.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1809. 786
Quoting MississippiWx:


Just because there is a straight line running all the way across doesn't mean there isn't a break or weakness in the ridge. If we look at current steering out in the Atlantic, we can see a break in between the two ridges with a strong area of low pressure north of the break, but the lines in the MDR point west. A lot would depend on the strength of a passing system. Obviously our waves out in the Central Atlantic are continuing to the west because they aren't strong enough to feel any tug. A stronger system (high end tropical storm-hurricane) would most likely feel that weakness there and head toward it.



Thanks! That makes a lot of sense, I can read it much better now
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1808. EricSFL
Quoting robj144:


Is there a Panama, Illinois or a Panama, North Dakota? That would make much more sense.


Yes, there is. Link
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The latest visible satellite loop on Emily shows increased organization.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
Quoting PrivateIdaho:




I have lived in Winter Park, Mount Dora, and Sorrento. But now I live in ....hmmm....where am I?


Remember PI...You're that southern born boy...who went Yankee....lol...:/
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1804. robj144
Quoting rv1pop:

I think the "Panama" was supposed to mean Florida!


Is there a Panama, Illinois or a Panama, North Dakota? That would make much more sense.
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1803. 786
Thanks! I keep hearing that the upper level pattern iis setting up like 2010 with a weaker high situated NE with a break due to troughs. But currently it looks like it is stonger and has managed to stay bridged for the most part so it doesn't seem to be a set up similar to 2010.
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Quoting Grothar:


LOL Just let me know when you are on the road.


*G* It's not me you have to worry about now, my youngest just got her license today!
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Quoting oceanbug:
Lots of Florida residents have posted tonight. Any other former Florida folks? I'm currently living in northern Illinois, but lived in Tallahassee and West Palm Beach.

The Chicago area seems to have a tradition that it must be cloudy whenever there's something interesting astronomically going on. Tonight seems to be no exception.


I have lived in Winter Park, Mount Dora, and Sorrento. But now I live in ....hmmm....where am I?
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1800. Skyepony (Mod)
Environmental Research Letters, 6(3) (2011) 034013; doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034013

An abrupt increase of intense typhoons over the western North Pacific in early summer
Jien-Yi Tu1, Chia Chou2,3,*, Ping Huang4 and Ronghui Huang4

1Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan
2Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
3Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
4Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China

Abstract

The frequency and intensity of typhoons have been a focus in studying typhoon-related climate changes. In this study, we focus on a seasonal cycle of intense typhoons (category 4 and 5) over the western North Pacific, particularly changes in the number of intense typhoons in early summer. In general, 81% of intense typhoons occur in July–November (JASON), with maxima in September and October. Our analysis shows that intense typhoons have tended to occur more frequently in May since the year 2000. Before 2000, intense typhoons seldom occurred in May, with a frequency of around once per decade. After 2000, however, the frequency of intense typhoons has become much higher in May—almost once per year. We have also examined changes in the large-scale environment in the past few decades. The results show that the large-scale environment did become more favorable for intense typhoons in the 2000s, which is consistent with a larger tropical cyclone genesis index. The changes include warmer sea surface temperature, higher sea surface height, larger upper-ocean heat content, weaker vertical wind shear, increased tropospheric water vapor, and greater water vapor in the mid-troposphere. The last two might be more important than the others.

*Correspondence e-mail: chiachou@rcec.sinica.edu.tw

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/3/034013
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1799. aquak9
reporting things from alien invasions to world war 3.

hurricaneking...that would be me.
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1798. Grothar
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Grothar, my kids will tell you I never am lost. I always know where I am when I am driving at least. I am in my car. Though the car I am driving in is occasionally not sure where it is...


LOL Just let me know when you are on the road.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
That is some pretty interesting steering.
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1796. aquak9


oh for crying out loud...I can't even post it right. Must be the auroras. Someone post it for me please?
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Quoting robj144:


To get an idea of how far south the aurora will go with KP number, go here:

Link

KP 9 only goes down as far south as Virginia. We need like KP 20 to get as far south as Panama. :)
Txhurricane11 is wrong i guess :)
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1794. rv1pop
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
This just came out:
KRGV Weather From Spaceweather.com: " Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say that the CME impact may have strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field, directly exposing satellites in geosynchronous orbit to solar wind plasma."

I think the "Panama" was supposed to mean Florida!
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Quoting 786:
Hi hope someone wouldn't mind taking a minute to respond to my question. I am trying to learn how to read the steering maps. Currently it looks like the Bermuda and Azores highs are bridged as there is a straight line running across the bottom of the two. It also looks like the Bermuda high is weakening but coming together with the Azores high. This is prob totally wrong but that's how it looks to me...any guidance would be great TIA

Btw if Dr. M, Angela or Rob read this, I hope there will be a blog soon on the steering currents as there has been in past years.


Just because there is a straight line running all the way across doesn't mean there isn't a break or weakness in the ridge. If we look at current steering out in the Atlantic, we can see a break in between the two ridges with a strong area of low pressure north of the break, but the lines in the MDR point west. A lot would depend on the strength of a passing system. Obviously our waves out in the Central Atlantic are continuing to the west because they aren't strong enough to feel any tug. A stronger system (high end tropical storm-hurricane) would most likely feel that weakness there and head toward it.

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1792. robj144
Quoting tennisgirl08:
I'm really interested in the aurora. Any chances it will make it to the South?


It will only get as far south as southern Illinois. So if you're north of that, you're good.
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1791. Grothar
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Hi Grothar! Nice to meet you. Come here often? You should have been here earlier to meet the Norwegian fellow.


Hi, and where are you from? Was there really another Norwegian here? Not too many of us around.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1790. robj144
Quoting oceanbug:
Lots of Florida residents have posted tonight. Any other former Florida folks? I'm currently living in northern Illinois, but lived in Tallahassee and West Palm Beach.

The Chicago area seems to have a tradition that it must be cloudy whenever there's something interesting astronomically going on. Tonight seems to be no exception.


Go outside and check out the aurora.
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I'm really interested in the aurora. Any chances it will make it to the South?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lots of Florida residents have posted tonight. Any other former Florida folks? I'm currently living in northern Illinois, but lived in Tallahassee and West Palm Beach.

The Chicago area seems to have a tradition that it must be cloudy whenever there's something interesting astronomically going on. Tonight seems to be no exception.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1787. robj144
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Exactly it shows the CURRENT extent of the Aurora not the forcasted, by 2:30 it should reach max when KP hits severe limits of 8.


To get an idea of how far south the aurora will go with KP number, go here:

Link

KP 9 only goes down as far south as Virginia. We need like KP 20 to get as far south as Panama. :)
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I know you may not believe it from my name but im a lurker too. You people can really be funny teasing each other like old friends even though you probably dont know each other. Some of really enjoy that. You all post some good stuff too. Keep in informed with humor.
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1785. aquak9
Quoting 786:
Hi hope someone wouldn't mind taking a minute to respond to my question. I am trying to learn how to read the steering maps. Currently it looks like the Bermuda and Azores highs are bridged as there is a straight line running across the bottom of the two. It also looks like the Bermuda high is weakening but coming together with the Azores high. This is prob totally wrong but that's how it looks to me...any guidance would be great TIA

Btw if Dr. M, Angela or Rob read this, I hope there will be a blog soon on the steering currents as there has been in past years.


ahhh what the heck.

Ok, the BAMD (that's the green triangle one) definitely sees the ridge, so do the other BAMs, simple minded they be. Look at the loop on the BAMD, fighting and bouncing and looping under the ridge. So yeah, the ridge is obvious, and although I doubt Emily Phlegm-ily will ever become enough to actually BE a spot on a map, the simpler models do pick it up.

BAMD always has major feedback issues, it's a drama queen.

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Quoting jeebsa:
I truly didnt have a clue there were this many people lurking. Im truly impressed.


You may not believe this, but I am a lurker also. I think you people are really funny. You post some good stuff on here. Some of us just like to watch you all go at each other like old friends. Its fun to watch.
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Quoting robj144:


Where are you getting this from? I've seen multiple sources which says the aurora will go as far as Pennsylvania, but not Texas. I'm in FLA so I would love to see it. Do you have a source?
I just checked several sites and from what I understand it should be able to be seen through the Central US. Also saw where it will be best viewed at 2:30 AM EDT
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Quoting aquak9:
1742- thanks for the graphic you posted. No auroras for me. Probably best.

No I am not scared of fireworks....but something glowing and moving and wierd in the sky would probably send me running under the sofa.

FirstCoast- all is well here. No fleas, fresh puppy chow. Life is good.


One of the few times I saw it in North Carolina we had people calling into the news stations reporting things from alien invasions to world war 3. All I could do was stand staring from my back porch till the mosquitoes attacked and was forced to run inside.
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1781. EricSFL
.
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1780. EricSFL
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Quoting 786:
Hi hope someone wouldn't mind taking a minute to respond to my question. I am trying to learn how to read the steering maps. Currently it looks like the Bermuda and Azores highs are bridged as there is a straight line running across the bottom of the two. It also looks like the Bermuda high is weakening but coming together with the Azores high. This is prob totally wrong but that's how it looks to me...any guidance would be great TIA

Btw if Dr. M, Angela or Rob read this, I hope there will be a blog soon on the steering currents as there has been in past years.


Somebody with a clue can help this person out? (excludes me by default)
edit: post 1758
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1777. brianc
Quoting jonelu:

I believe its because the majority of the "weather" is on the right side of the system. So the Bahamas will be most effected.

Thanks for response...but if it were to keep that heading (NW)...wouldn't all the weather eventually affect S FL?
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Quoting Grothar:


It was nice of you do start that. At my age it is nice to know where I am at any given time.


Grothar, my kids will tell you I never am lost. I always know where I am when I am driving at least. I am in my car. Though the car I am driving in is occasionally not sure where it is...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
POSS T.C.F.W.
05L/XX/XX
MARK
23.69N/76.33W


Changed from TCFA (earlier this evening) to TCFW? Interesting.
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1774. JLPR2
To take the focus off the remnants of Emily check out this weak disturbance.
Just noticed its existence.


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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Exactly it shows the CURRENT extent of the Aurora not the forcasted, by 2:30 it should reach max when KP hits severe limits of 8.


Thanks.
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Sadly cloudy and rainy here so not much chance to check out the Northern lights :(
Hand full of rainy days for over a month and the one night you don't want it to, of course it will.
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1771. robj144
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
well it was some experts that said it would end up to panama...btw post 1718 this geomagntic storm is very strong so its expected to reach tx


Where are you getting this from? I've seen multiple sources which says the aurora will go as far as Pennsylvania, but not Texas. I'm in FLA so I would love to see it. Do you have a source?
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Quoting Grothar:


It was nice of you do start that. At my age it is nice to know where I am at any given time.


Hi Grothar! Nice to meet you. Come here often? You should have been here earlier to meet the Norwegian fellow.
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1769. emcf30
Quoting aquak9:
1742- thanks for the graphic you posted. No auroras for me. Probably best.

No I am not scared of fireworks....but something glowing and moving and wierd in the sky would probably send me running under the sofa.

FirstCoast- all is well here. No fleas, fresh puppy chow. Life is good.


The auroras would probably make your duck spin around in circles.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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