Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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1969. robj144
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
colorado has seen it now as well


I'm sorry, but it's not getting down to Texas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I missed that one. There is also a small one in the middle. Very good. you get two cookies for that.



That's actually 4 cookies Gro? And Icing.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5405
Quoting robj144:


Yes, Charlie was there worst blunder in recent memory, but they've been very good track wise the last few years.
I say we set up an experiment. Every day the meteorologists(NHC) with computer aid give their forecast. A few minutes later the computer only forecast is released and they are compared side by side. If the computer only forecasts are more accurate then we can FIRE THE WHOLE BUNCH AT NHC and let them join this blog or whatever
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
A cookie for anybody that finds the number 7 in the middle of Ex-Emily.




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1964. Grothar
Quoting leddyed:
Link

Yes, I am that bored tonight.


Hey, I missed that one. There is also a small one in the middle. Very good. you get two cookies for that.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26146
1963. robj144
Quoting HurricaneKing:


I know of forecasters with just their Masters who have worked there. I used to know a forecaster who worked for them analyzing the Dvorak numbers. They have a group of forecasters who that's mainly all they do. Is estimate the strength in that manner. But I honestly want to keep going till I have my Ph.D.


Maybe you can answer a question someone brought up the other day that I tried to answer, but couldn't figure it out exactly. When a storm first forms, it gets its spin from the Coriolis force. This force creates a torque which imparts angular momentum to the storm and the Earth loses some angular momentum. As the storm gets stronger by acting as a heat engine and extracting energy from the latent heat of water vapor, it appears to gain angular momentum. What does it gain angular momentum from? Another words what other member of the system loses angular momentum? Is it the Earth still through friction?
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



This is a great place, that's why I come. However, my statement was point directed and 100% true. There is still a think tank here however, it was thriving back when I joined. Problem is nowadays is that it's so clouded with crap and too many people wanting to be Cheif's. Not enough Indians around most of the time.


True true and that is why I only come out of hiding on nights like tonight when It's peaceful and not going crazy.

Random aside on Emily. Her at least mid level center appears to be showing itself around 23.8N 77.2w. It appears to be moving wnw to nw which is for now the steering currents she appears to be stuck in. That trough still isnt building in very strong but most models show it beginning tomorrow and Sunday so a quick exit will happen around then.
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1961. Patrap


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Quoting HurricaneKing:


My college is evil. I can tell you how stuff forms and why it forms and go into all those nitty gritty details but they make us wait till senior year to start taking forecasting classes. Though hopefully by spring semester I'll be in a graduate level tropical meteorology class. Right now the main foucus has been mid latitude systems.
But w/ a solid understanding of the mid-lat systems, u can do a lot more in guaging where TCs will end up. Other than coriolis and Easterlies, the features that do the most to influence TC motion are those mid-lat features-
AB high, troughs, fronts, even cut off lows. U should try ur hand out @ applying ur understanding of what u've learned so far to this season's storms. Could b pretty interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1959. Grothar
Quoting IFuSAYso:

So, your a dauber, lol


Actually, I have never played Bingo in my life. I did bowl once. I've lead sort of a dull life.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26146
1958. leddyed
Quoting Grothar:
A cookie for anybody that finds the number 7 in the middle of Ex-Emily.

Link

Yes, I am that bored tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
A cookie for anybody that finds the number 7 in the middle of Ex-Emily.



She's telling ya Gro, I'm going to be here for the next 7 years, they keep trying to push me out but, I ain't going nowhere.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5405
Quoting Grothar:
A cookie for anybody that finds the number 7 in the middle of Ex-Emily.



22-25N 75-78W
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Quoting robj144:


Is a Ph. D. a requirement to work as a forecaster for the NHC, or do accept other degrees?


I know of forecasters with just their Masters who have worked there. I used to know a forecaster who worked for them analyzing the Dvorak numbers. They have a group of forecasters who that's mainly all they do. Is estimate the strength in that manner. But I honestly want to keep going till I have my Ph.D.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1954. Grothar
A cookie for anybody that finds the number 7 in the middle of Ex-Emily.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26146
1953. 786
Not sure if 2008 is still a good analog yr
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


That's what I was thinking, right up our a^%, I mean ally.
Prolly right rhe first time....

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i was here in 05 payed in 06 been awhile
Ditto. Who knew?

I'm out. Like a light lol. catch ya l8r.
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1951. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Same. Back then I was one of the annoying kids on the blog. In high school and trying to learn all I could off of people on here. Made a few wishcast back in the day and made a lot of friends. Im still so glad my aunt showed her weird obsessed with hurricanes and their formation nephew this site. It has helped me to learn and grow almost as much as my classes.



This is a great place, that's why I come. However, my statement was point directed and 100% true. There is still a think tank here however, it was thriving back when I joined. Problem is nowadays is that it's so clouded with crap and too many people wanting to be Cheif's. Not enough Indians around most of the time.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5405
Quoting Grothar:


They let us stay up late on Friday nights. We have to wind down from Bingo.

So, your a dauber, lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1948. robj144
Quoting doabarrelroll:

yes me too however I have been burned in the past by them see Irene 1999 yikes what a bad forecast! Also Charlie was supposed to hit Tampa


Yes, Charlie was there worst blunder in recent memory, but they've been very good track wise the last few years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1947. robj144
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Haha give me a few more years and then I'd say go with me instead but then again my dream job is to be at the NHC so you'd still be going with them.


Is a Ph. D. a requirement to work as a forecaster for the NHC, or do accept other degrees?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
HKing, wasjust abt 2 say I missed ur old avatar pic..... will b interested to see how ur forecasting skills have improved...


My college is evil. I can tell you how stuff forms and why it forms and go into all those nitty gritty details but they make us wait till senior year to start taking forecasting classes. Though hopefully by spring semester I'll be in a graduate level tropical meteorology class. Right now the main foucus has been mid latitude systems.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1945. jonelu
Seems like another dry system at the moment. She left plenty of rain in Hispañola but from what Ive seen reported thus far in the Bahamas..nothing to impressive. Our locals keep lowering rain chance for tomorrow down from 70%-50%. Winds lowerd from 10-15 to 5-10. Maybe Sunday...either way Im hoping we will be be getting some rain.
Member Since: October 31, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 882
Quoting PrivateIdaho:




I have lived in Winter Park, Mount Dora, and Sorrento. But now I live in ....hmmm....where am I?


Spudville, I use to live in Winterpark as well, now live on the wet side of the Cascades.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:


Ok, I rest my case. Several of you have had excellent counter-points against my original view. My mind is a little more open now, but I'm still going with the NHC all the time. :)


Haha give me a few more years and then I'd say go with me instead but then again my dream job is to be at the NHC so you'd still be going with them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HKing, wasjust abt 2 say I missed ur old avatar pic..... will b interested to see how ur forecasting skills have improved...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1940. robj144
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


any way the aurora will be seen in northern VA? looks very close to me


Looks like the very edge goes down that far. You'd need to look very close to the horizon though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:




Been a regular here since 03, didn't pay until 05. I know the deal.


Same. Back then I was one of the annoying kids on the blog. In high school and trying to learn all I could off of people on here. Made a few wishcast back in the day and made a lot of friends. Im still so glad my aunt showed her weird obsessed with hurricanes and their formation nephew this site. It has helped me to learn and grow almost as much as my classes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1938. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting ProgressivePulse:




Been a regular here since 03, didn't pay until 05. I know the deal.
i was here in 05 payed in 06 been awhile
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1936. JLPR2
Quoting poknsnok:



that would be east of Florida Columbus, not west


Duh yeah! Seems my brain is shutting down early.
Fixed
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1935. 786
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah; that's the pattern I was talking about in mid-july. :o(


Do u think that pattern will persist into the peak of the season?
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1934. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1933. JLPR2
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah; that's the pattern I was talking about in mid-july. :o(


Good for the US, Western Caribbean, bad for the NE Caribbean, lesser Antilles and Bahamas. :\

Which means more rain for me. :( Shoo! Franklin Shoo! Go to Texas! XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:



Just what we need, right?


That's what I was thinking, right up our a^%, I mean ally.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5405
1931. robj144
Quoting oceanbug:

Unfortunately, we seem to have a climate (ugh, but the pun stays) in this country where bashing the experts has become practically a sport. Those kinds of folks show up here, just like anywhere on the Internet. OTOH, there are many people posting in these comment threads who know meteorology, and challenge themselves to see if they can do as well or better than the NHC. And in the process share their knowledge with the rest of us.

Tonight the blog's been tremendous fun, with friendly exchanges of ideas. We can wish it were always so.


Ok, I rest my case. Several of you have had excellent counter-points against my original view. My mind is a little more open now, but I'm still going with the NHC all the time. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No Northern lights here even though it is very dark with no moon out yet. I'll check again late. Good night.

Sarcasm is a difficult feat on a blog....just sayin....:^)
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting JLPR2:


Noaa version: Link

Allan's page version: Link (I prefer this one)



that would be east of Florida Columbus, not west
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting oceanbug:

Unfortunately, we seem to have a climate (ugh, but the pun stays) in this country where bashing the experts has become practically a sport. Those kinds of folks show up here, just like anywhere on the Internet. OTOH, there are many people posting in these comment threads who know meteorology, and challenge themselves to see if they can do as well or better than the NHC. And in the process share their knowledge with the rest of us.

Tonight the blog's been tremendous fun, with friendly exchanges of ideas. We can wish it were always so.


Tis the only reason I came out of lurk mode. Well that and I finally have a few weeks off before the next semester starts.

The blog tonight reminds me of the good old days back when we had the original stormtop haha. But if everyone is wondering why I seem to have just reappeared it's because I took down all my pics and left during a bad time on here and have just over the past little while decided to come back on and share my college Met experiences. (It seems safer other than a few trolls.) Senior year is going to be fun.
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Quoting HurricaneKing:


And thats because they are a collective. It's not all on one forecaster or another. There may be one writing the discussion but he didn't make the forecast for the storm all on his own. A team of great minds from the new intern to the expert working as a collective is 1000times more powerful and correct than 1 forecaster acting alone.

That's what makes this Dr Masters blog fun also because we get to when not being trolled work with the collective of people from all groups. We have Mets like Dr. Masters and Angela. Students such as a growing number of us on here and also those that have just tracked the storms for years. Most of them time we're not as good as the NHC but sometimes our collective can catch some small details they do not.

Having said that theres a reason they call it the ART of meteorology. It's not an exact science and probably never will be. Sometimes you're right and others you fail miserable. What makes you a good forecaster is admitting when you don't know or when you made a mistake and be willing to move on.




Been a regular here since 03, didn't pay until 05. I know the deal.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5405
Quoting JLPR2:


Both systems cross the Lesser Antilles, NE Caribbean islands (PR, DR or Virgin Islands), over the Bahamas and make a hard turn to the right, and never hit the Conus.
Interesting to see both doing the exact same thing. O.o
Yeah; that's the pattern I was talking about in mid-july. :o(
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1925. 786
Quoting JLPR2:


Noaa version: Link

Allan's page version: Link (I prefer this one)


Thank you, looks like the high is setting up quite NE this yr
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:


Yes, I know they don't get everything correct all the time. Honestly though, do you think most people on this blog have a better idea where the storm is going than people who have Ph. D.'s who have been studying storms for 30 years? I know it's just a blog and it's not designed to be a prediction center, but it kind of irks me when people discredit experts so readily.

Unfortunately, we seem to have a climate (ugh, but the pun stays) in this country where bashing the experts has become practically a sport. Those kinds of folks show up here, just like anywhere on the Internet. OTOH, there are many people posting in these comment threads who know meteorology, and challenge themselves to see if they can do as well or better than the NHC. And in the process share their knowledge with the rest of us.

Tonight the blog's been tremendous fun, with friendly exchanges of ideas. We can wish it were always so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1923. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
POSS T.C.F.W.
05L/XX/XX
MARK
23.69N/76.34W


heres a different better view
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1922. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Nuttin but torn up beaches and no rain....



Just what we need, right?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26146
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Quite simply, it is because it is not their opinion. This is a blog of opinions you know. Your absolutely right though, the NHC is greatly discredited everyday on this blog. Humans make mistakes now and then but, NHC is most always dead on.


And thats because they are a collective. It's not all on one forecaster or another. There may be one writing the discussion but he didn't make the forecast for the storm all on his own. A team of great minds from the new intern to the expert working as a collective is 1000times more powerful and correct than 1 forecaster acting alone.

That's what makes this Dr Masters blog fun also because we get to when not being trolled work with the collective of people from all groups. We have Mets like Dr. Masters and Angela. Students such as a growing number of us on here and also those that have just tracked the storms for years. Most of them time we're not as good as the NHC but sometimes our collective can catch some small details they do not.

Having said that theres a reason they call it the ART of meteorology. It's not an exact science and probably never will be. Sometimes you're right and others you fail miserable. What makes you a good forecaster is admitting when you don't know or when you made a mistake and be willing to move on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1920. JLPR2
Quoting 786:


Can u pls post a link to the run??


Noaa version: Link

Allan's page version: Link (I prefer this one)
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1919. 786
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


I doubt it.


Wow
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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