Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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25.6n78.0w, 26.0n78.0w have been re-evaluated&altered for the 12amGMT ATCF
25.6n78.1w, 26.4n78.2w, 27.1n78.2w are now the most recent positions

TropicalDepressionEmily's travel-speed was 8mph(12.9k/h) on a heading of 0.0degrees(N)

The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Copy&paste 22.8n77.0w, 23.7n77.5w-24.6n77.9w, 24.6n77.9w-25.6n78.1w, 25.6n78.1w-26.4n78.2w, 26.4n78.2w-27.1n78.2w, pbi, fpo, ilm, 26.4n78.2w-33.913n78.2w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TD.Emily was headed toward passage over OakIsland,SouthCarolina ~2days8hours from now

The previous mapping (for 6pmGMT)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4218. Patrap
Im a Huge sprinkle Phan fo sho..


(..just saying)
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4217. srada
at least the masses saw it for the few seconds it was up and with that MISSION ACCOMPLISH!!

Emily is going to out sea by the way!
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Quoting DSIjeff:


that anticyclone is helping her out i think.

interesting to see next set in about 40 minutes. she is looking pretty good, with little apparent motion (except ind of west)


I see the low, still there, meandering. Steering at the surface is weak.... Just Sayin'



She won't be going North with her pal on the coast that is for sure.
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via Twitter
typhoonfury
It was indeed a wet one, still drying my kit out! RT @wunderground: RT @japantimes: Okinawa gets record typhoon rain http://ow.ly/5WQu6
22 minutes ago
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Quoting Patrap:



The Double Dip Dvorak...?


I like it.






With sprinkles...of course.
So it is written, so it shall be done.
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4212. Grothar
Quoting leelee75k:
based on the imagery you would think some part of florida would be under watch or warning... just sayin, lol, haha and goodnight.

btw is every Saturday night like this?


No, usually it's boring.
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Quoting Patrap:
..I see plans, within plans..



What have you done with those plans?
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moving slowly north i assume
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..EMILY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

11:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 6
Location: 27.4N 78.2W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DSIjeff:


I see what you're just sayin'!


And I raise you a LOL.
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Quoting PcolaDan:
BTW What does "just sayin" really mean :|

Kinda like IMO... just sayin', thats IMO
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4205. Patrap
btw is every Saturday night like this

O I hope not..we got 7-9 weeks of tuff Invest to cover
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4204. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


That being said, I am, too. ....Just saying.

You cant go around just saying just saying just like that. Saying just saying is like just saying nothing.

(feel free to add your own punctuation, if you like....)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
movie time....night all =) see you in the AM
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Maybe why Emily is not going anywhere?



figgering her,she might just turn around and go back to africa
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
Quoting Grothar:


That being said, I am, too. ....Just saying.


What did you just say? :-|
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4198. Patrap
..I see plans, within plans..

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based on the imagery you would think some part of florida would be under watch or warning... just sayin, lol, haha and goodnight.

btw is every Saturday night like this?
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4196. srada
Quoting DSIjeff:



shhhh!

you'll blow my cover


(whispering) ok..sorry..
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
lol....I'm pretty sure that's the first time in the blog's history we've had a dvorak double.


Can that be ordered at the nearest bar? "I'll have a dvorak double please, on the rocks."
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4191. Grothar
Quoting PcolaDan:


LOL, just sayin, LOL

wait was that redundant?
or is that like a double negative and I just insulted you (nicely) then retracted it with the last LOL
I'M SO CONFUUUUUSED


That being said, I am, too. ....Just saying.
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4188. Patrap
Quoting CosmicEvents:
lol....I'm pretty sure that's the first time in the blog's history we've had a dvorak double.



The Double Dip Dvorak...?


I like it.






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Maybe why Emily is not going anywhere?

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I need help. We all know that Emily is a very confusing storm. Does anyone think that Florida will get some rain out of this? If so, when? Thank you. We really need the rain to help our drought.
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4184. srada
Quoting DSIjeff:
hi srada.


Hey Jeff!
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4183. pottery
Quoting Patrap:
I always fig'yad dat meant I dont now WTH Im yakking on a bout atall.


heheheheh..
sort of like saying "well, I have not thought about this at all and dont know what it means, but want to throw it out there to see if anyone notices"
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
Quoting DSIjeff:


It's a sign of weakness...just sayin'!

It is interchangeable with "LOL" at the end of an otherwise scathing comment..LOL!


LOL, just sayin, LOL

wait was that redundant?
or is that like a double negative and I just insulted you (nicely) then retracted it with the last LOL
I'M SO CONFUUUUUSED
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Quoting PcolaDan:
political blogs on WU

Link
Link
thanks for this, Dan.... nice to have a couple places to rant and rave w/out getting banned in the main blog.... lol


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Quoting Patrap:
The rare double Blog Post with pic in "Dvorak".

Datz gotta be a bad sign fer someone.

lol....I'm pretty sure that's the first time in the blog's history we've had a dvorak double.
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4178. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
Me tinks Emily is trying to parellel park near Grothar and PP.


Wouldn't mind. We need the rain.
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Quoting CatfishJones:


I'm more Liszt No.8 Wilde Jagd or Berlioz Symphonie Fantastique- Un Bal tonight...
I figure this for the epitome of a landfalling hurricane soundtrack:

Link
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=S PGF1

SSW 15 knts. now on west end.

Was north last few hours.

Center must lie between there and palm beach now.
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Isnt she stalled over the Gulf Stream, and with less than 10kt of shear, ist it prime for intesification.
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Emily looking like her sickly self. If you arew just going to sit there Emily,come west a bit and give Florida some rain.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
4171. Patrap
Me tinks Emily is trying to parellel park near Grothar and PP.
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4170. angiest
Quoting IceCoast:

This one is for the Gulf. Other one was Tropical Atlantic.


I didn't know if tropical Atlantic included all parts or just the Atlantic proper.
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Quoting Patrap:

2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve



Wow!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.