Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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2019. robj144
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Was skimming the internets and this site looks the touch on the answer some. It seems to be saying that because a storms is at a lower pressure than the surroundings the surrounding air tries to rush into to fill it in. This is based on The ageostrophic wind theory. If the circulation is strong enough it turns this tangental air into angular velocity. Or geostrophic wind that is in balance. Again this is me speculating at now 1:51am after being up since 6am so my brain is beginning to shut down.
Link


Thanks, but that link is incredibly hard to follow. It also doesn't mention latent heat either. Appreciate the effort though.
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2018. jonelu
Quoting stillwaiting:
ex-emily drifts towards the keys tomorrow??
NHC says NW to N..so I dont think the keys are going to feel anything from this system.
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Quoting robj144:


He wants to sell you a credit default swap? Don't do it.
Oh, he is one of those Wall Street Gordon Gecko types. And to think all I wanted to streamline the NHC, save the taxpayers some $ and get our rating back to AAA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:


By the way, the storm does gain energy by the release of latent heat from the condensing water vapor. So your guess is correct. You've been paying attention during class.


Was skimming the internets and this site looks the touch on the answer some. It seems to be saying that because a storms is at a lower pressure than the surroundings the surrounding air tries to rush into to fill it in. This is based on The ageostrophic wind theory. If the circulation is strong enough it turns this tangental air into angular velocity. Or geostrophic wind that is in balance. Again this is me speculating at now 1:51am after being up since 6am so my brain is beginning to shut down.
Link
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2015. Grothar
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM EMILY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH IN THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Quoting Grothar:




HA I got the most cookies!
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2013. 786
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Given that we're exactly on the same amount of name storms that 2008 is on, a neutral ENSO year, and the way the high is set up.. I would say 2008 is perhaps the best analog year.


Hmm 2008 did and up having some Caribbean cruisers, and brought us gustav and paloma, this year seems like 2010 with systems moving N before the western Caribbean
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Quoting Grothar:


Remily? LOl You have got to submit that to the NHC. It could be a new form of naming ex-storms.



ME: YEAH, I work at the NHC.

MR.SMITH: Cool, what do you do there?

ME: I rename dead storms, pretty cool huh?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5401
2011. robj144
Quoting HurricaneKing:


I've just been looking through my notes and I've noticed something that Im going to change very soon. NONE of my profs have taught us that answer. I could tell you why a mid lat cyclone strengthens through temperature gradients but I can't tell you about a hurricane. My theory would be the gain in heat energy increases the overall kinetic energy which increases the velocity of the overall storm but thats just a random guess at 1:41 am. Im now saddened and realizing more and more I need a school that focusus on the tropics.


By the way, the storm does gain energy by the release of latent heat from the condensing water vapor. So your guess is correct. You've been paying attention during class.
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ex-emily drifts towards the keys tomorrow??
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Too late... 60% chance of development now
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2007. robj144
Quoting FrankZapper:
Darn, before our meeting he was going to treat me to a meal at The Olive Garden!


He wants to sell you a credit default swap? Don't do it.
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2006. JLPR2
One closed isobar isn't much of a system but at least the Nogaps sees it.


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2004. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Remily has been a seventy percenter her whole life if you think about it.


Remily? LOl You have got to submit that to the NHC. It could be a new form of naming ex-storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:


Some advice... do not meet Vincenzo. He does the NHC, shall we say, "security". His Ph. D. is in financial analysis... pure evil.
Darn, before our meeting he was going to treat me to a meal at The Olive Garden!
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2002. Grothar
Quoting stillwaiting:
darn,no cookie???,any kool aid left atleast???,lol


Hence, your name! :)
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2001. robj144
Quoting HurricaneKing:


I've just been looking through my notes and I've noticed something that Im going to change very soon. NONE of my profs have taught us that answer. I could tell you why a mid lat cyclone strengthens through temperature gradients but I can't tell you about a hurricane. My theory would be the gain in heat energy increases the overall kinetic energy which increases the velocity of the overall storm but thats just a random guess at 1:41 am. Im now saddened and realizing more and more I need a school that focusus on the tropics.


Thanks, but do you know what loses angular momentum though? If the storm gains angular momentum, something else must lose it. To me it would have to be the Earth somehow.
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2AM TWO coming out in a moment... is it going to be:

a) 60%
b) 70%
c) 80%
d) 90%
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1999. Grothar
Just an observation. Anyone in Southeast Florida notice that the low level clouds are moving rapidly to the Southwest and others are moving to the Southeast. Very odd, the clouds normally move very slowly at night.
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darn,no cookie???,any kool aid left atleast???,lol
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Hey that 7 means shes staying at 70% lol



Remily has been a seventy percenter her whole life if you think about it.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5401
1996. robj144
Quoting FrankZapper:
I already did. But this guy Vincenzo started emailing me. He wanted to meet me by the railroad tracks to discuss my proposal. :)


Some advice... do not meet Vincenzo. He does the NHC, shall we say, "security". His Ph. D. is in financial analysis... pure evil.
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Quoting robj144:


Maybe you can answer a question someone brought up the other day that I tried to answer, but couldn't figure it out exactly. When a storm first forms, it gets its spin from the Coriolis force. This force creates a torque which imparts angular momentum to the storm and the Earth loses some angular momentum. As the storm gets stronger by acting as a heat engine and extracting energy from the latent heat of water vapor, it appears to gain angular momentum. What does it gain angular momentum from? Another words what other member of the system loses angular momentum? Is it the Earth still through friction?


I've just been looking through my notes and I've noticed something that Im going to change very soon. NONE of my profs have taught us that answer. I could tell you why a mid lat cyclone strengthens through temperature gradients but I can't tell you about a hurricane. My theory would be the gain in heat energy increases the overall kinetic energy which increases the velocity of the overall storm but thats just a random guess at 1:41 am. Im now saddened and realizing more and more I need a school that focusus on the tropics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1994. hcubed
Quoting lucreto:
Let's just stop talking about "Emily", onto the next wave being developed by the GFS, Euro, and LGEN late this weekend.


Warning to new viewers: the LGEN model being mentioned in post 746 is totally bogus.
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Quoting 786:
Not sure if 2008 is still a good analog yr


Given that we're exactly on the same amount of name storms that 2008 is on, a neutral ENSO year, and the way the high is set up.. I would say 2008 is perhaps the best analog year.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24018
1990. Grothar
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I can only see the 7 that VAbeachurricanes pointed out, lol.


There is a small 7 in the middle and a big 7 in the upper left. I just thought it would be a break in the blog to see something like that. Very odd. Don't worry, 09. When you get older, you will see more 7's and hopefully a 10.
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Quoting robj144:


Sure email the NHC tonight and propose this idea. I'm sure they'll do it. :)
I already did. But this guy Vincenzo started emailing me. He wanted to meet me by the railroad tracks to discuss my proposal. :)
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theirs a perfect #7 near 23n,78w
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Of course all this can only mean one thing. Remily is weak as ya know.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5401
1986. robj144
Quoting robj144:


Maybe you can answer a question someone brought up the other day that I tried to answer, but couldn't figure it out exactly. When a storm first forms, it gets its spin from the Coriolis force. This force creates a torque which imparts angular momentum to the storm and the Earth loses some angular momentum. As the storm gets stronger by acting as a heat engine and extracting energy from the latent heat of water vapor, it appears to gain angular momentum. What does it gain angular momentum from? Another words what other member of the system loses angular momentum? Is it the Earth still through friction?


Yes, I quoted my own post because it's too long to write again. Can anyone answer this question? Thanks.
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Quoting 1844. robj144:
Ok, I'm going to ask this question when it's quiet because it would probably anger almost everyone here. It's an honest question though. Why does what seems like 90% of the bloggers here disagree with the NHC forecast so frequently? I've been paying attention closely the last few years, and the NHC never that far off... the storm is almost always within the cone if you track it. I mean the NHC has Ph. D.'s who have been tracking storms for probably an average of twenty years or more. They're the authority. Don't mean to offend anyone.


In my line of work I need more than 48 hours to shutdown drilling rigs and release men for evacuation. NHC is not accurate enough for that. There are several very good Mets (and Met wanna bees) on this blog. On the really big ones, Rita and Ike, I made the call (with help and insite from folks on this blog) way before the NHC got it right.
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1984. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:




Nice, Pat. Moving west on each run. Hey, tell the guys where the best Auroras we have ever seen?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I can only see the 7 that VAbeachurricanes pointed out, lol.


I see two little 7's, 1 Really big one and an H just east of Andros.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5401
1982. jonelu
Quoting Hurricanes101:



Its in that blue con
Quoting Grothar:


those look delicious!!!!!
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1981. leddyed
Quoting Grothar:


What, you couldn't have waited?? :) Gee, thanks





Well, you have to admit, it's a pretty awesome 7, regardless of where it is.
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1980. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


That's actually 4 cookies Gro? And Icing.


So I'm a generous guy. Just enjoy.
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1979. 786
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI418 7.1

Really interesting read on strike probabilities
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I can only see the 7 that VAbeachurricanes pointed out, lol.
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1977. Grothar
Quoting leddyed:


Thanks. But my 7 ain't exactly in the middle of Ex-Emily, so I prolly should give one of those cookies back, I suppose.


What, you couldn't have waited?? :) Gee, thanks



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1976. robj144
Quoting FrankZapper:
I say we set up an experiment. Every day the meteorologists(NHC) with computer aid give their forecast. A few minutes later the computer only forecast is released and they are compared side by side. If the computer only forecasts are more accurate then we can FIRE THE WHOLE BUNCH AT NHC and let them join this blog or whatever


Sure email the NHC tonight and propose this idea. I'm sure they'll do it. :)
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Quoting Grothar:


Actually, I have never played Bingo in my life. I did bowl once. I've lead sort of a dull life.
How about fiddle sticks?
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1974. robj144
Quoting Grothar:




Damnit man and your cookies! Now I have to get up and eat a cookie. :)
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23n,77.5 w #7
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1972. Grothar
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


22-25N 75-78W


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1971. leddyed
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I missed that one. There is also a small one in the middle. Very good. you get two cookies for that.



Thanks. But my 7 ain't exactly in the middle of Ex-Emily, so I prolly should give one of those cookies back, I suppose.
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1970. Mucinex
Quoting Grothar:
A cookie for anybody that finds the number 7 in the middle of Ex-Emily.


Nothing quite so indicitive of cyclogenis as right angles in the cloud field. May I have a cookie, papa?

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1969. robj144
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
colorado has seen it now as well


I'm sorry, but it's not getting down to Texas.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.