Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting charlottefl:
I think a surface circulation is trying to form just north or Andros island, look at long range radar out of Miami just to the north of the island.


Yep. There is already a mid level circulation as seen on IR sat. Slowly working its way down to surface just off extreme NW coast of Andros.
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I think a surface circulation is trying to form just north or Andros island, look at long range radar out of Miami just to the north of the island.
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ATCF = AL, 05, 2011080606, , BEST, 0, 246N, 779W

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5060
Quoting DSIjeff:
What i keep coming back to is how they continue to forecast the kick to the ne, which very well may happen, but the center is so far south of where it was initially forecast to be at this time .. and much weaker ... I don't understand how the same steering influences can effect it in the same way.

timing is everything, right?

center is just north of Andros.

this is the general location the models showed it being at 3-4 days ago.
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Good Morning.
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Based on sat presentation etc. I bet we see TD emily by late this afternoon if not sooner.
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2011 Hurricane Season and NASA Research:
An Interview with Scott Braun:

Link
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light breezes reported in andros not a sign of a intensifying system
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4377
2158. QMiami
I guess they expect most of the action to stay off to the east. no mention of FL in the two
Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 125
Quoting DSIjeff:


the 8:05 adv now has it 23, 79.... so we were close with 24, 79


The circulation seems at mid level and is pretty clearly at 24.5 or so N and 78.5 or so W. Not very defined at the surface as its tuff to place it on radar. Seems to be drifting NNW or NW
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2156. QMiami
Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 125
Quoting DSIjeff:


the 8:05 adv now has it 23, 79.... so we were close with 24, 79

[just looked at 23 and I dont see it there] 24, yes.


After I read the discussion I sat there and stared at it too... I can't figure what it is there that has them thinking that's the low.
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2153. WRook
All the guessing of location could be put to bed by looking at NWS Miami long range radar
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Quoting RukusBoondocks:
AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.


How can they sit there and say that......


??
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Quoting DSIjeff:
as of 09UTC, which I think is 5 EST, the Low was analyzed west of Andros Island.

Check the "fronts" box

Link


I see it... my money is still on where you have it, or at least in that ballpark.... which compared to what they have fixed is just a tick west... which is why I was thinking about that track left shift.

If it's trying to get more symmetrical, at the very least that puts the low kinda sorta in the middle of the convection.
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2148. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE REMNANTS OF EMILY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
CURRENTLY A 1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED N OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
23N79W MOVING NW-N NEAR 10-12 KT.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
THROUGH THE LOW CENTER FROM NEAR 27N76W TO THE LOW CENTER.
A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP
NEAR THE CENTER AND TO THE NE FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 76W-79W.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON.
EVEN IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL...AND DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING SQUALLS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

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AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.


How can they sit there and say that......
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Quoting RukusBoondocks:
ex em is moving wnw nhc is soo sure its not even gonna get near FL.. Its like right on the states door step 8am update says its moving north....whatever


It is moving north. Maybe NNW very slowly. More like a drift
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ex em is moving wnw nhc is soo sure its not even gonna get near FL.. Its like right on the states door step 8am update says its moving north....whatever
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Quoting DSIjeff:
as of 09UTC, which I think is 5 EST, the Low was analyzed west of Andros Island.

Check the "fronts" box

Link


That was right.....has moved just a bit NW
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Quoting DSIjeff:
Trying to see this 'north of Andros Island' stuff


I think I see it... look on IR... there is a plume of convection right on the NE tip of the island.
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Quoting DSIjeff:
Trying to see this 'north of Andros Island' stuff


Seems off NW coast
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thanks for the info...out for a bit...things to get done...have a nice day all....stay safe bobbyweather
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Quoting AussieStorm:


East of the big Island I would say the center of Ex-Emily is.


IMO the circ. center (if there is one!) is over Andros or just off the NW coast.
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Morning all, long time lurker and very occasional poster here from the very north of Andros Island in The Bahamas where we are having heavy, continuous rain at the moment with some thunder and a very light breeze. Am expecting it to continue like this for much of the day.
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Quoting DSIjeff:


Link


Thanks... I'm figuring out the controls for it... pretty sporty.
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Seems to be drifting very slowly NW. This would be perfect for Florida as we NEED the rain. Most of the assoc. weather is on the east side of the circulation so unfortunately I dont think Emily will give us the rain we need, especially over the lake.
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Quoting DSIjeff:


I can sure see that are at 24N79W a LOT better in that image... is that rapid scan?
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East of the big Island I would say the center of Ex-Emily is.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Maybe; that's why I'm worried. I live in Seoul; we might get the worse of it if the forecast track turns even more eastward.

Well. Muifa is going to be in Seoul in the next few hours and will be there for almost 24hrs. Take care my friend. We are all here to help. Just get yourself prepared.
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8 AM

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY IS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. SATELLITE
IMAGES AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY. THERE IS HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT.
..OF THIS
SYSTEM REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL...AND DO NOT FAVOR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SQUALLS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
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Quoting DSIjeff:


wow...that's quite a bit of convection, opinion on direction of movement? still wondering where the NW and NNW movement is that was predicted days ago...
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Quoting DSIjeff:


That visual image you have is a lot better than the one I'm seeing... where can I get that?
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
morning all...can anyone out there post a current sat pic? my cable is out for some reason...had a storm last night, maybe that is why, tia


IR and VIS



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Quoting DSIjeff:
I think we'll see the focus this morning will be wsw of Andros island, near the intersection of 24N and 79W


You nailed it yesterday morning, so I'll take a seat on that bus.
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morning all...can anyone out there post a current sat pic? my cable is out for some reason...had a storm last night, maybe that is why, tia
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Will Emily redevelop into a tropical storm?
A) Yes
B) No
C) Tropical depression
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.