Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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2219. FFtrombi
1:04 PM GMT on August 06, 2011
Northerly shear is keeping Emily from developing quickly at the moment, the LLC is at the northern edge of the convection, NNE from Andros island.
Member Since: November 6, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
2218. Orcasystems
1:03 PM GMT on August 06, 2011
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
2217. KBH
1:03 PM GMT on August 06, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm not a met either, but waves in that location seem to always take that path, not just these 2 years.

interesting to note that it was the floods that caused deaths of 4 people from Emily, last year several systems did not reach 'cyclone classification' but caused several deaths
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
2216. avthunder
1:02 PM GMT on August 06, 2011
Quoting DSIjeff:
Maybe the people in South Florida can at least watch the rain of on the horizon.

Good Morning from SoFla. Very still here - seemed hotter and more humid than usual on the dog walk this morning.
On the satelite pictures and radar ex Emily looks fairly healthy - I am not a weather person, just it seems to look like it is redeveloping. And unless it goes due north, seems we would get a few squalls from it. Maybe just wishful thinking; the water bills for the lawn are painful.
That blob by Barbados looks pretty healthy too - is that what folks are calling "Franklin"?
Member Since: August 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
2215. hunkerdown
1:01 PM GMT on August 06, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm not a met either, but waves in that location seem to always take that path, not just these 2 years.
I'm not a MET either, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
2214. positivenao
1:00 PM GMT on August 06, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
6Z GFS
336hrs

384hrs

1-2 Punch?

looks like franklin followed by get but gert develops south of hati then moves over cuba and redevelops in the straights and franklin develops in the W. carribean. very interesting, no ridging to block them from hitting the US
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
2213. WeatherNerdPR
1:00 PM GMT on August 06, 2011
Quoting KBH:
not a met but seems to be a similar trend to systems last year p

I'm not a met either, but waves in that location seem to always take that path, not just these 2 years.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
2212. hunkerdown
12:59 PM GMT on August 06, 2011
Quoting positivenao:

Franklin on the 6z GFS 312 hours in the GOMEX as a hurricane ignore the 1001mb based on the size a hurricane in the gulf, and notice Gert in the carribean developing
ok, now if I should believe what you are saying, first you show a map with Gert ready to plow the NFla/Ga/SC coast at 284 hours, with no other storms visible...then at 312 hours you say Franklin in the GOM...don;t we have our alphabet mixed up a bit ??? Better idea, step away from the GFS...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
2211. islander101010
12:59 PM GMT on August 06, 2011
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Glad they are all on the same page now. CIMSS850 confirms that location and stretched off to the NNE. A non-event for FL.
not if your a east coast surfer
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4891
2210. positivenao
12:58 PM GMT on August 06, 2011

6zGFS Gert who was south of hati moved over cuba then wnw and develops in the florida keys again moves wnw into the Gulf stregnthining, 384 Hours, Notice 0z GFS takes Franklin out to sea and Gert into the east coast but the 6z shows both franklin and gert impacting the US gulf coast
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
2208. KBH
12:57 PM GMT on August 06, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Seems it'll take the same general path as every other wave in it's location, west to west-northwest until it plows into Central America/Yucatan.
not a met but seems to be a similar trend to systems last year
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Judging from the precip. animation, and the radar, I'd say that Emily has turned north, but someone tell me if my eyes are deceiving me.

Steering could get interesting ... or she's just up and outta here.





Oracle Thanks for the link, does suggest that system east of the islands may develop, into lots of rains for the islands
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
2207. WeatherNerdPR
12:57 PM GMT on August 06, 2011
6Z GFS
336hrs

384hrs

1-2 Punch?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
2205. hunkerdown
12:56 PM GMT on August 06, 2011
Quoting positivenao:

0z GFS 384 hours, the wave behind franklin develops and gets trapped under a rebuilding ridge, EAST COAST HIT from Gert
16 days out, now that's believable...man the stations, time to commence putting up of the shutters...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
2204. positivenao
12:55 PM GMT on August 06, 2011

Franklin on the 6z GFS 312 hours in the GOMEX as a hurricane ignore the 1001mb based on the size a hurricane in the gulf, and notice Gert in the carribean developing
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
2203. barotropic
12:54 PM GMT on August 06, 2011
Quoting positivenao:

0z GFS 384 hours, the wave behind franklin develops and gets trapped under a rebuilding ridge, EAST COAST HIT from Gert


Interesting.....but a long long way out.
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
2201. positivenao
12:52 PM GMT on August 06, 2011

0z GFS 384 hours, the wave behind franklin develops and gets trapped under a rebuilding ridge, EAST COAST HIT from Gert
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
Quoting tropicalweather2011:
what is going on here!!


Thats a TW about to be sheared to death!!! LOL
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
I wouldn't expect Emily to bring very much rain to Fla. if any at all.

TCCA22 KNHC 060708

STDCCA



SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0615 UTC SAT AUG 6 2011





SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...REMNANTS OF EMILY



MAX RAINFALL

DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST

----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------

6/0615 UTC 23.5N 78.7W 350/07 9.2 IN 3.6 IN





LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...



DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER

------------- --------------- ---------------

0 TO 1 DEGREE 0.1 TO 0.9 IN 0.6 TO 2.6 IN

1 TO 2 DEGREE 0.4 TO 1.4 IN 1.1 TO 2.3 IN

2 TO 3 DEGREE 0.1 TO 1.3 IN 1.0 TO 3.6 IN

3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.2 IN 1.2 TO 2.4 IN





.
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288 hours GFS 0z shows Franklin recurving
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Eugene! Don't die on me!
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2193. IKE
Avoiding the lower 48.....


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2192. WxLogic
Good Morning.
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Quoting KBH:
was trying to find out about that system developing east of Barbados yesterday, no feedback, today it's pretty much the size of ex Emily with some stong gust ...any one got any projections



It looks to be under some strong shear right now but shear is decreasing. I would keep my eye on it since it is in an area with a good chance for tropical cyclone development.
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Quoting reedzone:
Oh yeah NHC.. Yep, Florida is sooo in the clear :P



You are the experts so Florida won't even get rain from this system.. Even though it's soo darn close...


TD Emily a bit later....probably nothing for florida in way of rainfall - or very little. shame to cuz we need it bad over lake.
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
Quoting reedzone:
Oh yeah NHC.. Yep, Florida is sooo in the clear :P



You are the experts so Florida won't even get rain from this system.. Even though it's soo darn close...
May increase afternoon posp but I wouldn't even bet my money on that...believe its gonna be a dry wekend here in SFla
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
The center is 111nm to the East of the radar site in Miami.
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Quoting KBH:
was trying to find out about that system developing east of Barbados yesterday, no feedback, today it's pretty much the size of ex Emily with some stong gust ...any one got any projections

Seems it'll take the same general path as every other wave in it's location, west to west-northwest until it plows into Central America/Yucatan.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting Neapolitan:
Just out:

AL, 05, 2011080612, , BEST, 0, 256N, 780W, 30, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 100, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EMILY, M,



Glad they are all on the same page now. CIMSS850 confirms that location and stretched off to the NNE. A non-event for FL.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Just out:

AL, 05, 2011080612, , BEST, 0, 256N, 780W, 30, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 100, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EMILY, M,

That's better.
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2182. KBH
was trying to find out about that system developing east of Barbados yesterday, no feedback, today it's pretty much the size of ex Emily with some stong gust ...any one got any projections
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Looks WNW, I must be going mad.

Looks more like in between west and west-northwest.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Oh yeah NHC.. Yep, Florida is sooo in the clear :P



You are the experts so Florida won't even get rain from this system.. Even though it's soo darn close...
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looking at Long range radar out of Miami an LLC is developing directly NW of andros island and directly east of MIami. take a look
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
Just out:

AL, 05, 2011080612, , BEST, 0, 256N, 780W, 30, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 100, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EMILY, M,
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Photobucket
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6Z HWRF thinks Emily will hit Bermuda as a Cat. 1:

Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
ATCF = AL, 05, 2011080606, , BEST, 0, 246N, 779W



SSD = 06/1145 UTC 25.4N 77.8W T1.0/1.0 EMILY -- Atlantic


NHC=

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061140
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY IS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 061155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE REMNANTS OF EMILY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
CURRENTLY A 1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED N OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
23N79W MOVING NW-N NEAR 10-12 KT.





These people should really call each other and coordinate. Every branch has a different location for Remily.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Morning.


Looks WNW, I must be going mad.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24484
spin off theeast side of the abacos too
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Do they have any weather stations on andros? If so, if we start seeing west winds there then a circulation would be at the surface.
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Quoting charlottefl:
I think a surface circulation is trying to form just north or Andros island, look at long range radar out of Miami just to the north of the island.


Yep. There is already a mid level circulation as seen on IR sat. Slowly working its way down to surface just off extreme NW coast of Andros.
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.