Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

Share this Blog
24
+

Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2269 - 2219

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89Blog Index

aaa chew..emuly just sneezed at fl,maybe a little spray,lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:
I'm going to walk down to the beach later... to wave at Special Marine Warning Emily.

Okay that's not fair since I don't think she meets the criteria for a special marine warning.

Let's call her Marine Weather Statement Emily.




Nah, way too much, you might scare people. How about Rip Current warning Remily.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5045
Emily 10 Blog 0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:
I'm going to walk down to the beach later... to wave at Special Marine Warning Emily.

Okay that's not fair since I don't think she meets the criteria for a special marine warning.

Let's call her Marine Weather Statement Emily.
,i would just go with a advisory until later today,lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
surface obs confirm a closed circulation,expect td emily back when the hh fly,more likely ts emily before 5pm imo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting OminousCloud:
IS IT ME? OR IS IT THAT ALMOST EVERY SINGLE TIME A STORM HEADS TOWARDS FLORIDA, SOME UNSEASONALLY STRONG TROFF COMES ALONG , INTERFERES WITH THE SYSTEM , ONLY LEAVING THE STATE ENTRENCHED WITH THE DRY AIR ON ITS DRIER/WEST SIDE....UGHHHH.
,your not the only one who's noticing,,troughing over the ne in the begining of august and in july,isnt that more of a sept/oct pattern,same thing last yr....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


This is the 1st wave the GFS develops in a few days.

Thanks..could be an interesting week or two ahead of us
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wierd it alomost looks like emily's llc is moving west or wnw on the highbdef vis loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
IS IT ME? OR IS IT THAT ALMOST EVERY SINGLE TIME A STORM HEADS TOWARDS FLORIDA, SOME UNSEASONALLY STRONG TROFF COMES ALONG , INTERFERES WITH THE SYSTEM , ONLY LEAVING THE STATE ENTRENCHED WITH THE DRY AIR ON ITS DRIER/WEST SIDE....UGHHHH.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
nexlab 1k high def vis loop of ex emily tells it all,still very sheered with the llc on the northern edgevof the convection
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NavarreMark:


Back slider!!!


what does that mean? lol
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 467
Quoting positivenao:

0z GFS 384 hours, the wave behind franklin develops and gets trapped under a rebuilding ridge, EAST COAST HIT from Gert


Why would anyone even refer to a 384 hour map. Those fantasy maps that far out just have no model skill.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting superpete:
cyberteddy- Is this the wave shown that develops on the 336 hr GFS long range, posted on 2207?


This is the 1st wave the GFS develops in a few days.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23640
Quoting NavarreMark:


What does the XTRP say about that one.


Looks to be trending towards.. err.. west. LOL.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23640
2244. HarryMc
Quoting Skyepony:
I'm siding with the MLB NWS & the ants~ saying chance of rain for east & interior FL today......




I'd say 30% with MLB NWS and 60% with the ants, 10% undecided.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
25.8n,77.8w,center fix for ex-emilys llc,wouldnt doubt a ts about 150 miles off fl by tonight,maybe some squalls along the east coast and breezy tomorrow(15-25mph),on the drier west side of a tc sheered to the east syould bring little effects to fl,almost 100% certain she we'll not make landfall in the conus and should drift to the north and then ne thru 48hrs...sorry fl!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
cyberteddy- Is this the wave shown that develops on the 336 hr GFS long range, posted on 2207?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seflhurricane:
the LLC Northwest of andros seems to be stalled with a slight drift to the WNW based on radar, would not be surprised if we see an upgrade today, hopefully it comes close to the florida east coast to give us a good soaking


Don't bet on any significant rain around here we are on the dry side of this low . Could be the seasons first hurricane on its way out to sea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Watch this wave closely that's emerging off the African coast, the GFS develops this.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23640
2237. Skyepony (Mod)
I'm siding with the MLB NWS & the ants~ saying chance of rain for east & interior FL today..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1022 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...

SAT...MOST MODELS SHOW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE (REMNANTS OF EMILY)
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND JUST OFFSHORE OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY. AN ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
LOW MAY ALLOW FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MORNING
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING OVER THE
INTERIOR INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OCCUR
AND A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR...OTHERWISE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STILL WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED SINCE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

$$

KELLY/MOSES



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the LLC Northwest of andros seems to be stalled with a slight drift to the WNW based on radar, would not be surprised if we see an upgrade today, hopefully it comes close to the florida east coast to give us a good soaking
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2998
2235. tea3781
Doesnt seem to be to much northward component to it...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FFtrombi:
Northerly shear is keeping Emily from developing quickly at the moment, the LLC is at the northern edge of the convection, NNE from Andros island.
and looks to b drifting WNW
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2998
Quoting positivenao:

looks like franklin followed by get but gert develops south of hati then moves over cuba and redevelops in the straights and franklin develops in the W. carribean. very interesting, no ridging to block them from hitting the US
too early to call telleconnecting the pac to the atlantic anywhere from carolinas to florida
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4370
2231. kwad
What about the System East of the Caribbean. It appears to be under some strong wind shear. What is the possibility of development.St. Lucia have had lots of rain since Hurricane Tomas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NavarreMark:


Behold ye of little faith. Some remain devout. Will Emily rise again?


Nahhh, even if she actually came into Fl as a depression at this point... We've had worse thunderstorms.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 467
2229. SLU
A tropical wave interacting with the TUTT causing the flare-up near the Windwards. No significant development expected.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting avthunder:

North Borward. We put in a new lawn last month; figured would not need to water that much because we were in the "rainy season". Ha! Driest July I remember in 18 years here. They let you water every day when you have a new lawn - did not think we would need to!!
ahhh, gotcha. Can't catch a break from Mother Nature...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting hunkerdown:
where in SFla are you at ? Water bills should not be that bad from irrigation with the restrictions in place...

North Borward. We put in a new lawn last month; figured would not need to water that much because we were in the "rainy season". Ha! Driest July I remember in 18 years here. They let you water every day when you have a new lawn - did not think we would need to!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From the local weather man:

"increased rain chances for South Florida this afternoon. Chance of Emily's remnants regenerating remains at 70%. System will slowly move toward Northern Bahamas today and could develop into a depression at any time. Hurricane Hunter will fly into it this afternoon."
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 467
Quoting avthunder:

Good Morning from SoFla. Very still here - seemed hotter and more humid than usual on the dog walk this morning.
On the satelite pictures and radar ex Emily looks fairly healthy - I am not a weather person, just it seems to look like it is redeveloping. And unless it goes due north, seems we would get a few squalls from it. Maybe just wishful thinking; the water bills for the lawn are painful.
That blob by Barbados looks pretty healthy too - is that what folks are calling "Franklin"?
where in SFla are you at ? Water bills should not be that bad from irrigation with the restrictions in place...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Northerly shear is keeping Emily from developing quickly at the moment, the LLC is at the northern edge of the convection, NNE from Andros island.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2269 - 2219

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.