Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Can anyone tell me which direction Ex-Emily is moving and how fast?
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2318. tkeith
Quoting stillwaiting:
aaa chew..emuly just sneezed at fl,maybe a little spray,lol
I hope she wasn't eating cashews...
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2317. JLPR2
Anyone wandering why this doesn't have a yellow circle too?


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Remember, the long range radar we are looking it is looking up into the mid-levels of the atmosphere, not the surface. Satellite imagery looks impressive, but Emily has played this trick on us before. Recon is scheduled for later today, let's see what they find.
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I live in South Florida (pembroke pines) and I want to go to the beach because there are probably good waves now....it's super sunny outside, is the rain going to come here, or is it going to stay off shore? Thanks all!
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*correction to timeline,
72 Hours timeline...
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Is Emily moving wnw or northward as the NHC states?
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Timeline for Emily in the next 48 Hours...
6 Hours: Emily Regenerates, and becomes a TS around 50 to 100 miles ESE of Miami...
12 Hours: Emily becomes a 50 Mph TS, and makes a skimming landfall Near Lake Worth/Boynton Beach.
24 Hours: Emily leaves the Florida coast, and is beginning a Northeasterly track out to sea, as a 60 mph Tropical Storm.
36 Hours: Emily reaches her peak strength(60 mph to 65 mph), and continues her Easterly motion.
48 Hours: Emily begins transitioning into a Post-tropical system.
72 Hours: Emily is fully extra-tropical, Her last advisory is written...
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Is Emily still moving NW?
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Are the hurricane hunters still scheduled?
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It's funny to see so much rain sitting 50 miles off coast, and to walk outside and see a nice sunny day. Here in South Florida we need all of that rain due to our severe drought, and not a drop we will see.
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2301. emcf30
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looks like dead she is heading for the gulf stream then she will head north
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Things could get interesting later this afternoon! Emily looks to be reforming,but we said that before didn't we?LOL
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2295. IKE

Quoting OminousCloud:
IS IT ME? OR IS IT THAT ALMOST EVERY SINGLE TIME A STORM HEADS TOWARDS FLORIDA, SOME UNSEASONALLY STRONG TROFF COMES ALONG , INTERFERES WITH THE SYSTEM , ONLY LEAVING THE STATE ENTRENCHED WITH THE DRY AIR ON ITS DRIER/WEST SIDE....UGHHHH.
Wait for the "pattern change".
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I see Emily has lost some of her convection, though she has tightened up her center somewhat, and became a little bit better organized, still going with my old forecast that regeneration will occur mid pm...
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Where is Emily heading?
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2292. emcf30
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good amountbof mid level dry air this morning from th miami sounding,should be a pretty stormy day along fls central and southern west coast witha ne flow piling uop all the heat combinig with our west coast seabreeze im expectingbsome stroong storms with locally heavy tropical downpours and gusty squalls
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Quoting P451:


moving due west with slight north of west
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satelite images and surface observations & radar images indicate that Emily is coming back i expect to see TS Emily Sometime late today when recon goes in
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2280. emcf30
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2278. QMiami
sorry about link - shows up well on radar on sfwmd site

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/n oaaport/radar_amx2_anim.gif
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Quoting P451:


Is Dewey around? I think we have to drop to DOOMCON 4 as a precaution.


The DOOMCON system is currently set at 5..
**DOOMCON 5 is normal setting.
DOOMCON 4 is anxiety.
DOOMCON 3 is panic. (if said system is near Florida, curtains are raised)
DOOMCON 2 is panic attack.
DOOMCON 1 is mass hysteria.
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Quoting P451:


Nope.


Models beyond 192hrs are just for fun.
Models beyond 120hrs are a stab in the dark.
Models beyond 72hrs drop in success dramatically.
Models out to 72hrs are believable and can be wrong.


It's just the way it is. If any entity you see in those pics were to actually be there come that time it would be by pure coincidence and you can bet the rest of the map as depicted wouldn't look anything like that.


Models are purely a guide out to a certain hour and then they really are just for fun.

At best when you go into the 120, 144, 168, 192 hour ranges - what you do is look for model continuity and then what you take away from it is "The models are hinting at development in that area."

You don't take them literally in terms of storm, location, strength. You just see that they want to develop "something" in a general area and then keep watching subsequent model runs.

Even then the success rate is very low in the end.

I think we had some success with Bret's development being hinted at around 168 hours prior. Which is very good. But it's a rarity.

wpac to atlantic about 10 days to teleconnect carolinas to florida
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:




Nah, way too much, you might scare people. How about Rip Current warning Remily.
swell is still weak
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Quoting DSIjeff:


when you see that kind of movement with the wind barbs, that really tells the story.


every picture tells a story story
every picture tells a story story
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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