Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting wxguesser:
Clearly the remnant low will move across S FL and redevelop in the SE GOM...just sayin.

Umm I think there is a 0.01% chance of that happening.
Many computer models indicate a north to NNE motion
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Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:


Very wrong... guess again


I had to say it along the lines of the name, I know that you are a hurricane watcher and a Gator fan of which I despise as a U Fan. But I had to say it
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2366. Vero1
Quoting IKE:

Jeez...u sound like about 200 other people on here now...lol......


A real "HPR" (Hurricane Party Rally")
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Clearly the remnant low will move across S FL and redevelop in the SE GOM...just sayin.
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2363. unruly
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Dont mind him.. hes a Troll... Anyway... It all depends on what direction the rem-low of emily moves.... If she keeps on heading NW then she will give the coastal regions rain and wind... If she heads Due north... she will give us no rain and wind.
But if your surfing, your already wet. What does a little rain change?
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Guys, atmospheric moisture is not easily determined at all by water vapor loop. The water vapor loop can show moisture when the air is actually very dry and the water vapor loop can show dry air when the air is really moist.

For example, based on water vapor you would think deeper moisture is moving into the East Coast of Florida. But this is not the case. Actually, drier air wrapped into the East side of Florida while deep moisture remains on the West side of Florida.

If you really want to know how much moisture is available, look at PW and the soundings. They will tell you if the atmosphere is supporting higher increases in showers/storms.

Water Vapor satellite only shows the upper half of the atmosphere.
,apparent if you compaire this mornings soundings from tour east and west coasts,miami's much drierir than tpa in the mid/ul
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
So let me get it, you are a Gator fan and a U Fan? Or am I reading this wrong


Very wrong... guess again
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So let me get it, you are a Gator fan and a U Fan? Or am I reading this wrong
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Guys, atmospheric moisture is not easily determined at all by water vapor loop. The water vapor loop can show moisture when the air is actually very dry and the water vapor loop can show dry air when the air is really moist.

For example, based on water vapor you would think deeper moisture is moving into the East Coast of Florida. But this is not the case. Actually, drier air wrapped into the East side of Florida while deep moisture remains on the West side of Florida.

If you really want to know how much moisture is available, look at PW and the soundings. They will tell you if the atmosphere is supporting higher increases in showers/storms.

Water Vapor satellite only shows the upper half of the atmosphere.
,precipitable water loops work much better agreed,with wv your getting a look at the available moisture in the upper levels
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Quoting connie1976:


...because it doesn't tell me if that big blob is going to send moisture our way or not...


Channel 10 has been on for the last 2 hours giving the weather and telling you all about whats going to happen with our weather and the blob of rain to the east...

Rain chances..... before noon 20-30%.... building to 40-50% late this afternoon

Current live weather from Hollywood Beach is partly to mostly sunny, HOT, light breeze...

So head on east... it's great
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Quoting IKE:

Jeez...u sound like about 200 other people on here now...lol......


LOL
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Quoting P451:


Moisture moving in...

12hr wv



Guys I will make it clear again, atmospheric moisture is not determined by water vapor loop. The water vapor loop can show moisture when the air is actually very dry and the water vapor loop can show dry air when the air is really moist.

For example, based on water vapor you would think deeper moisture is moving into the East Coast of Florida. But this is not the case. Actually, drier air wrapped into the East side of Florida while deep moisture remains on the West side of Florida.

If you really want to know how much moisture is available, look at PW and the soundings. They will tell you if the atmosphere is supporting higher increases in showers/storms.

Water Vapor satellite only shows the upper half of the atmosphere.

Deep moisture is found from Tampa to Jacksonville, but drier air has wrapped from about Melbourne south to the coast for now.
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No wind at all being reported, that should end this for a while.
Quoting P451:
Not exactly a flag shredder.






A toad strangler perhaps.

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Quoting stillwaiting:
surface obs confirm a closed circulation,convections been persistant near the llc,td if not a ts(though havent seen any surface reports of ts winds)


Surface obs indicate a weak low pressure area at best, with winds being very weak in the area. Convergence is lackluster. I doubt the NHC will classify this today. This is not a tropical cyclone right now IMO.

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Quoting connie1976:


well, I like asking people here....people usually are kind...


Dont mind him.. hes a Troll... Anyway... It all depends on what direction the rem-low of emily moves.... If she keeps on heading NW then she will give the coastal regions rain and wind... If she heads Due north... she will give us no rain and wind.
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Teddy, I would like to see the ECMWF more bullish like GFS has for that wave,to then be fully onboard with development.
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pretty cool looking high level cloud pattern over the turks on the nexlab high def vis loop of emily,alomost looks like a bleacher pattern
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2346. unruly
Quoting connie1976:
I live in South Florida (pembroke pines) and I want to go to the beach because there are probably good waves now....it's super sunny outside, is the rain going to come here, or is it going to stay off shore? Thanks all!
Turn off your computer and go outside!!!

Gonna be in the low 80's here in New England, with a chance of T-Storms today.
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Link Wind gust nne @ 16knts
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Quoting P451:


Moisture moving in...

12hr wv



Guys, atmospheric moisture is not easily determined at all by water vapor loop. The water vapor loop can show moisture when the air is actually very dry and the water vapor loop can show dry air when the air is really moist.

For example, based on water vapor you would think deeper moisture is moving into the East Coast of Florida. But this is not the case. Actually, drier air wrapped into the East side of Florida while deep moisture remains on the West side of Florida.

If you really want to know how much moisture is available, look at PW and the soundings. They will tell you if the atmosphere is supporting higher increases in showers/storms.

Water Vapor satellite only shows the upper half of the atmosphere.
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Quoting hurricane23:


When a TC passes east of Florida, we are generally left high and dry for the most part. There will be some enhancement of showers today but not any kind of prolonged deluge. Coastal regions may some scatterd t-storms later this afternoon.


Thank you!!! :)
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Quoting doabarrelroll:

it does. 50% chance of rain. And i know the local Miami meteorologist would tell you about that blob.


well, I like asking people here....people usually are kind...
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2337. IKE

Quoting DSIjeff:


wouldn't it be something if the energy keeps drifting west into the Gulf?
Jeez...u sound like about 200 other people on here now...lol......
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2336. emcf30
Quoting JLPR2:
Anyone wandering why this doesn't have a yellow circle too?




I don't think it will be to long before they give it a circle. Looking good.
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Quoting connie1976:
I live in South Florida (pembroke pines) and I want to go to the beach because there are probably good waves now....it's super sunny outside, is the rain going to come here, or is it going to stay off shore? Thanks all!


When a TC passes east of Florida, we are generally left high and dry for the most part. There will be some enhancement of showers today but not any kind of prolonged deluge. Coastal regions may some scatterd t-storms later this afternoon.
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Quoting IceCoast:
Remember, the long range radar we are looking it is looking up into the mid-levels of the atmosphere, not the surface. Satellite imagery looks impressive, but Emily has played this trick on us before. Recon is scheduled for later today, let's see what they find.
surface obs confirm a closed circulation,convections been persistant near the llc,td if not a ts(though havent seen any surface reports of ts winds)
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2330. IKE

Quoting DSIjeff:


Well, when you put it that way...
Please hurry up Emily and move on. She's gone on long enough.
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Quoting doabarrelroll:

Why wouldnt you just turn on the local weather? Or type ur zipcode in here. regardless 50% chance


...because it doesn't tell me if that big blob is going to send moisture our way or not...
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Quoting JLPR2:
Anyone wandering why this doesn't have a yellow circle too?




Just came of the coast. Give it another 12-24 hours to see if it sustains that convection.
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Looks like Emily finally did turn North, at least now the NHC won't heavy to sweat over their forecast decisions for a while lol
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Timeline for Emily in the next 48 Hours...
6 Hours: Emily Regenerates, and becomes a TS around 50 to 100 miles ESE of Miami...
12 Hours: Emily becomes a 50 Mph TS, and makes a skimming landfall Near Lake Worth/Boynton Beach.
24 Hours: Emily leaves the Florida coast, and is beginning a Northeasterly track out to sea, as a 60 mph Tropical Storm.
36 Hours: Emily reaches her peak strength(60 mph to 65 mph), and continues her Easterly motion.
48 Hours: Emily begins transitioning into a Post-tropical system.
72 Hours: Emily is fully extra-tropical, Her last advisory is written...


Possible.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Anyone wandering why this doesn't have a yellow circle too?




Could get one today, has model support from the GFS which has been very consistent with it.
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Water temp. in the north GOM are on fire all close to 90 !!
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Can anyone tell me which direction Ex-Emily is moving and how fast?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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