Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Here is todays TCPOD.

Only one mission left for this system after this afternoon's flight.

NOUS42 KNHC 061530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 06 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-067

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM EMILY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 07/1800Z
B. AFXXX 1505A EMILY
C. 07/1500Z
D. 30.5N 75.2W
E. 07/1730Z TO 07/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE

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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


000
NOUS42 KNHC 051415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 05 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNATS OF STORM EMILY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 1405A INVEST
C. 06/1500Z
D. 25.5N 78.0W
E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
07/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ALL FLYING ON WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM EMILY
WAS CANCELED AT 04/2000Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
05/1800Z MISSION WHICH WAS CANCELED AT 05/1100Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP





Yep, should have been 15 minutes ago. 15z is 11 am.
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To my untrained eye it would appear that the blob of precipitation is drifting ever so slightly west with no northerly motion.

Link

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2415. Patrap
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I believe recon should have taken off 15 minutes ago.


000
NOUS42 KNHC 051415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 05 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNATS OF STORM EMILY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 1405A INVEST
C. 06/1500Z
D. 25.5N 78.0W
E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
07/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ALL FLYING ON WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM EMILY
WAS CANCELED AT 04/2000Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
05/1800Z MISSION WHICH WAS CANCELED AT 05/1100Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP



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Surface obs indicate there may be a very weak LLC trying to develop, but still somewhat "troughy." Surface convergence isn't the greatest, but it may be slowly getting better. Also keep in mind that radar isn't looking at low-level clouds from that distance, instead it's looking at more of a mid-level circulation. With all that being said, I still think Emily will redevelop, but I'm not sure recon will find a closed circulation when they fly in. As of right now I put those odds at 50-50.
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I believe recon should have taken off 15 minutes ago.
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2411. Patrap
We have no plans at this time for any additional relief for Haiti.

As Comm and relief co-ordinator,,I have a call sched with Paul this evening on the matter though.

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morning all
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I think its moving NNW or NW slowly...
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12z surface analisis introduces the wave around 16W that GFS develops.

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Dear Admin:
What I wanna know is, we have an ex-Emily, it is a blob of interest, it is in the TWO, it has had a 60-70% chance for two days, but the WU Tropical page does show it, doesn't show the models, etc... I know it isn't an "invest" but it is still an active area of interest... who at WU makes the decision of what to put on the Tropics page?
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2405. Seastep
It is astonishing how many are saying no FL effects.... get your crow ready.

6hr forecast:



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Quoting Patrap:

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Emily
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)






Bermuda might have to contend with this one.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Emily's remnants took a sharp turn north, the NHC can breathe now after all haha.

They did well for a system they pretty much wanted to defy the models half the time. Was a tricky system, they handled it well.


I see a slow North Component.. but i still see a little west Component aswell.

Link
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2402. ackee
NEXT week could be intresting if the GFS is right CV seasons is about to get going
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Pat,

Since I can not seem to figure out where Press or Storm have floated off to. Whats the latest for Haiti relief efforts in relation to Emily?
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2400. Patrap

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Emily
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




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2398. Patrap
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Quoting aquak9:
1) Im obviouslly not JFV... JFV= Lucerto

wrong!!


Well I guess that decides who makes breakfast.

How about some DOOM muffins and a cup of coffee.
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
what is the current heading of the blob of ex-emily... is it moving WNW or NW or due N?


Emily's remnants took a sharp turn north, the NHC can breathe now after all haha.

They did well for a system they pretty much wanted to defy the models half the time. Was a tricky system, they handled it well.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
aaa chew..emuly just sneezed at fl,maybe a little spray,lol
I'm sorry, but I'm going to have to downgrade that sneeze to AA+ chew.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:


let me dig up the article, but there was something put in the Sun Sentinel last year talking about all that the NHC and NOAA has to deal with Hurricanes. Something about a total of 7 different planes, different range. Give me about 5 or so minutes


Met Student, you have mail. For the rest on here, here is the link for the information:
Link
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Thanks Student 56
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Quoting FloridaRick:
Any one have a radar link for the bahamas?


http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/index.php?page=s at

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Quoting P451:



I know it's at different levels. At the upper levels the moisture is moving in which is what the imagery shows.

Florida will see scattered thunderstorms from this event.





Oh ok that's good you know, I know there are many here that don't.

Actually, Emily has helped to push drier air into the East side of the State for now. Florida already had deep moisture over it before the remnants of Emily were ever around. Moisture is almost always deep over Florida this time of year and scattered heavy storms are around virtually every single day.

The main problem here really is that we have a weak inversion due to warm air aloft in the Mid-levels which has limited thunderstorms for how high moisture is here.

But we still have been getting some scattered storms anyway despite the warm air aloft. We have had heavy storms the last 6 days straight here. We will see if we can make today 7 days straight.
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2389. wxhatt
Looks like NHC still has ex-emily headed north and out to sea.

"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY IS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. SATELLITE
IMAGES AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY. THERE IS HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL...AND DO NOT FAVOR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SQUALLS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS."


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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


NHC has Un-Manned Drones?

Btw... No Surfing Weather at all...



let me dig up the article, but there was something put in the Sun Sentinel last year talking about all that the NHC and NOAA has to deal with Hurricanes. Something about a total of 7 different planes, different range. Give me about 5 or so minutes
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what is the current heading of the blob of ex-emily... is it moving WNW or NW or due N?
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Any one have a radar link for the bahamas?
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Given that there's good low-level circulation, heavy convection right at the CoC, a few feeder bands developing, and that the whole thing is sitting nearly atop the Gulf Stream in a relatively relaxed-shear environment, it appears that Emily's corpse is well on its way to a revival. I wouldn't be surprised to see that officially happen in the next three or four hours...
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calm morning on Miami Beach. a few Emily pieces on the horizon
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also remember that this system is close enough, for NOAA to send their unmanned recon planes in.


While HS and the ATF as well as the DEA send theirs into everyones backyard. It's a brave new world....


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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
This is what I have to say, for so long the NHC said that it would turn to NW or WNW while the system kept either stalling out or going to the west. So until the Hurricane Hunters can get out there and take stock of the system, we truly do not know whats going on. The atmospheric conditions that the dropsondes that are being used will tell us where the system goes. Anyone that keeps saying percentages about where a system may or may not go, its not worth it.

Remember, when a system gets close to Florida whether we get hit directly or indirectly, those systems tend to act a bit of their kilter. So lets just watch and wait for the NHC to post their information from their Hunters, also remember that this system is close enough, for NOAA to send their unmanned recon planes in.


NHC has Un-Manned Drones?

Btw... No Surfing Weather at all...

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Quoting stillwaiting:
,apparent if you compaire this mornings soundings from tour east and west coasts,miami's much drierir than tpa in the mid/ul


Yeah exactly, higher moisture is over TBW rather than Miami, even though the water vapor loop shows otherwise.
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2380. aquak9
1) Im obviouslly not JFV... JFV= Lucerto

wrong!!
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This is what I have to say, for so long the NHC said that it would turn to NW or WNW while the system kept either stalling out or going to the west. So until the Hurricane Hunters can get out there and take stock of the system, we truly do not know whats going on. The atmospheric conditions that the dropsondes that are being used will tell us where the system goes. Anyone that keeps saying percentages about where a system may or may not go, its not worth it.

Remember, when a system gets close to Florida whether we get hit directly or indirectly, those systems tend to act a bit of their kilter. So lets just watch and wait for the NHC to post their information from their Hunters, also remember that this system is close enough, for NOAA to send their unmanned recon planes in.
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Thank you so much everyone!! :)
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Quoting doabarrelroll:

Hilarious! JFV is calling someone else a troll!


1) Im obviouslly not JFV... JFV= Lucerto

2) You are the Rudest.. Most Vile person on the blog today.. .and yes.. you are a troll.
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Based on the current radar loop, I'd bump the rain chances for southern and central Florida up a bit.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
,precipitable water loops work much better agreed,with wv your getting a look at the available moisture in the upper levels



Well Water Vapor loop definitely has its uses, its great for looking at structure of low pressure systems, including tropical cyclones, and its great for finding what going on in the upper level of the atmosphere. But its very bad to use if you're going to determine if the air at that area is moist or not. Many days we can have high moisture over Florida with heavy thunderstorms developing with daytime heating. But previously to this development, the water vapor would show "dry" air over us when that is not the case.

Also, water vapor frequently shows "high moisture" in areas such as the West Coast of the U.S. where the air is actually very dry.

The water vapor satellite is a good tool, but ironically, its not good to use for determining if the atmosphere is moist in a particular area or not. Unfortunately, that is what most people think its used for, which makes sense if you don't know how it works.
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Quoting wxguesser:
Clearly the remnant low will move across S FL and redevelop in the SE GOM...just sayin.

Umm I think there is a 0.01% chance of that happening.
Many computer models indicate a north to NNE motion
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.