Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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This ridge wouldn't bode well for the CONUS and Caribbean if any CV storms try to spin up. Of course it's only 30 Hrs out as the 12Z GFS is running right now. Let's see how this run compares to the last.

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2468. scott39
The one to watch over the next couple of weeks is going to be the wave over central Afica. This is the one the GFS is picking up on to develope.
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2467. nigel20
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is Ms. Bronte moving more wnw or nw?
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Quoting heavyweatherwatcher:
Link
The visible is improving... including light banding features... she may be going commando... but here skirt is looking better...


That there is funny.
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Ex-Emily being her basic self, disorganized ball of thunderstorms. Looks a little better than when sitting in the Caribbean, mainly because wind shear isnt as strong; still there thoughLink
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2463. txjac
Since its a bit slower in here can anyone explain to me why the high continues to stay over Texas? Is it just a patter? Is anything influencing it? What can change it? I see lots of movement and activity of weather all around our state ...but cant figure out why it avoids us? What moves the high out?

Thanks
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No sign of recon yet.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24246
Link
The visible is improving... including light banding features... she may be going commando... but here skirt is looking better...
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2460. HCW
Will update every 5 mins

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Link
You can start to see some banding developing on the visible... She is getting closer to reassuming her name... not that being named will make her much worse... but it will be enough to spin up my 85 yo Mom in satellite beach...
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Well, it did take a sharp turn north overnight, but now it has slowed dramatically and appears to be drifting WNW or NW.

Although it appears that way to they eye though, it doesn't mean it is.

The reason its very tricky to point out where it is actually moving is that the mid to upper level flow is strongly out of the east. That means any convective blowup is going to make it look like the whole system is moving more west.

Its really hard to say honestly, because you can't see the surface circulation center on satellite now, its covered by convective development. also, considering the actually movement is so slow, it makes it that much harder.

Oops I just read your post after I posted and mine, and I completely agree. I'm expecting her to start scooting northward here soon.
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Thanks all...Lots of good information on why it appears to be moving in a certain direction. All of it makes sense now.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Well, it did take a sharp turn north overnight, but now it has slowed dramatically and appears to be drifting WNW or WNW.

Although it appears that way to they eye though, it doesn't mean it is.

The reason its very tricky to point out where it is actually moving is that the mid to upper level flow is strongly out of the east. That means any convective blowup is going to make it look like the whole system is moving more west.

Its really hard to say honestly, because you can't see the surface circulation center ob satellite now, its covered by convective development. also, considering the actually movement is so slow, it makes it that much harder.



I can agree with all of that. On radar your eyes can be fooled by the convection starting to wrap around the center. It may look like its moving W or even SW, but I see a slow NW movement right now. Hopefully Recon gets there and clears things up.
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I think the reason it looks like it is moving WNW is that it is getting sheared out of the east. The center is still moving NNW, but the overall cloud field is getting blown off to the west. The easterly shear is evident here:

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2452. nigel20

Nice looking tropical wave off Africa.
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Remily does appear to be heading for the coast. However, sometimes looks can be deceiving. Recon should have some answers a little later.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5451
2449. divdog
Quoting Hurricanes12:


Actually, many people were saying that the storm would stay well east off the coast and that some areas on the east coast of Florida could just have scattered thunderstorms later on during the day.
Everybody is entitled to there opinion and calling people out is of no value to the blog. Whether it redevelops or not somebody will claim they were right and somebody will claim they were wrong. Who really cares the storm is going to do what it is going to do its not listening to the blog.
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


I see a slow North Component.. but i still see a little west Component aswell.

Link


Well, it did take a sharp turn north overnight, but now it has slowed dramatically and appears to be drifting WNW or NW.

Although it appears that way to they eye though, it doesn't mean it is.

The reason its very tricky to point out where it is actually moving is that the mid to upper level flow is strongly out of the east. That means any convective blowup is going to make it look like the whole system is moving more west.

Its really hard to say honestly, because you can't see the surface circulation center on satellite now, its covered by convective development. also, considering the actually movement is so slow, it makes it that much harder.

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2447. nigel20
Good morning everyone
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maybe just a llv
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Link

this works pretty well also...
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2444. K8eCane
Gives new meaning to tropical wave ....wave as it goes by
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2443. Patrap
Quoting plywoodstatenative:


I think he was referring to StormWalsh


I think you havent a clue as to whom we were talking about.

It aint StormW sport.


StormW has never been a Portlight member.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
convergence and divergence increasing again. 850 vort looking better.





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ackee IMHO i thin it is a combo of A/B:)
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Quoting stillwaiting:
on radar i could swear it looks like emily's llc tightening and ?moving to the sw rapidily towards the miami area


Hard rugs...
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Quoting divdog:
many of us said no effects from a developed system and thats exactly where we stand right now.


Actually, many people were saying that the storm would stay well east off the coast and that some areas on the east coast of Florida could just have scattered thunderstorms later on during the day.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
wnw with a slight movement to the SW


Here you Everyone.. Bookmark this.. Its Usefull when a Storm comes close to Florida or passes South into the GOM.
Link





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2436. ackee
What direction is EX/EMAILY MOVING NOW ?

A WEST
B WNW
C NW
D NE
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


No, there would be an amendment at the bottom that would say it was cancelled, would have been updated by now if it had.


So I guess they're just late then...
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2433. divdog
Quoting Seastep:
It is astonishing how many are saying no FL effects.... get your crow ready.

6hr forecast:



many of us said no effects from a developed system and thats exactly where we stand right now.
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on radar i could swear it looks like emily's llc tightening and ?moving to the sw rapidily towards the miami area
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
wnw with a slight movement to the SW
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Quoting Hurricanes12:


It wasn't canceled right? That was yesterday?


No, there would be an amendment at the bottom that would say it was cancelled, would have been updated by now if it had.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24246
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


I Found this really great Florida Radar on the same site that has Hurricane computer models.....

Link

Tell me guys if this posts :



IMO... its heading NW


TBH, that looks WNW to me, very slow.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24246
Quoting Patrap:


SJ or StormJunkie.com is no longer a valid url as SJ shut it down due to costs.


I think he was referring to StormWalsh
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2426. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
2425. wxhatt
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


I see a slow North Component.. but i still see a little west Component aswell.

Link


It's hard to say, but I think the models are all pretty clustered taking it north and out to sea.
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Quoting heavyweatherwatcher:


Concur Rick... drifting slowly but consistently to the NW... towards the coast...


I Found this really great Florida Radar on the same site that has Hurricane computer models.....

Link

Tell me guys if this posts :



IMO... its heading NW
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yep, should have been 15 minutes ago. 15z is 11 am.


It wasn't canceled right? That was yesterday?
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2422. Patrap
Quoting Clearwater1:


Storm runs a blog of his own. just google ( palm harbor florida forecast)and I'm sure you will find him. I can't recall the exact address of the site.


SJ or StormJunkie.com is no longer a valid url as SJ shut it down due to costs.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Pat,

Since I can not seem to figure out where Press or Storm have floated off to. Whats the latest for Haiti relief efforts in relation to Emily?


Storm runs a blog of his own. just google ( palm harbor florida forecast)and I'm sure you will find him. I can't recall the exact address of the site.
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Quoting FloridaRick:
To my untrained eye it would appear that the blob of precipitation is drifting ever so slightly west with no northerly motion.

Link



Concur Rick... drifting slowly but consistently to the NW... towards the coast...
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Here is todays TCPOD.

Only one mission left for this system after this afternoon's flight.

NOUS42 KNHC 061530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 06 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-067

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM EMILY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 07/1800Z
B. AFXXX 1505A EMILY
C. 07/1500Z
D. 30.5N 75.2W
E. 07/1730Z TO 07/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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