Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting angiest:


Wouldn't you like to be Comfortably Numb during the storm?
To feel the warm thrill of confusion, that space cadet glow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1006.7mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.2 2.5
Emily Satellite estimate; apparantly not very accurate...
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4266. Grothar
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4265. nigel20
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4264. Grothar
Quoting floridastorm:

Yeah but not the coast as much. Broward and Dade had some downpours but not Coastal Palm Beach where its needed.


We didn't have any downpours.
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I guess everyone has looked at the vorticity of this thing, and knows she's stacked perfectly?

I think this should be reposted as a reminder of why Glinda never arrived, and the Munchkins are still screaming.



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4261. Grothar
Link
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Didn't SE FL get some rains today?

Yeah but not the coast as much. Broward and Dade had some downpours but not Coastal Palm Beach where its needed.
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Looks like I got my answer on where it's going from here:
Link
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4258. Skyepony (Mod)
Emily has been in that warm pool all day..
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rebroadcast of la lapalooza tonight google it
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4735
Quoting Patrap:
Emily Morphs out another cell Cluster in Warm SSt's


Isn't she pretty close to the Gulf Stream?
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Quoting CatfishJones:


The mood is right, but for a the duration of a Hurricane you really need a Russian like Shostakovich's 10th. Especially the second movement. This has Major Hurricane written all over.
Ya, good program-sounding music for that.
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So i see Emily has officially killed 5 people now... unfortnately that could climb closer to 10 before its all said and done, with the heavy rain she has produced....
Emily is the last coat of Primer for the Season, Now the first coat of the paint will be put on,
Franklin is up to bat, and he appears likely to be our first cape verde storm of the season...
5-0-0, should be IMO 9-3-2 by the end of the month... Maybe
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Quoting BahaHurican:
But hey, we got on this blog pple who think that having a cat 5 cane or an EF-5 tornado come to visit ur community "just so they can see what it's like" is just a way cool idea.... never mind that it destroys everything in its path.... pple who misrepresent their credentials and haven't a clue about correct facts regarding the geography and history of their own country, much less the world's.... and they talk louder and more than everybody else.... might make world creditors a little gunshy, IMO, when these are the people electing Senators and representatives...

have to agree Baja
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I laughed at this part of the discussion:

"EMILY IS A SOLID 30-KT DEPRESSION."

That's like saying "I have a monstrous and ferocious kitty cat".
Hey some cats are scary enough to chase my dog away, lol
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4250. Patrap
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128725
4249. Patrap
Emily Morphs out another cell Cluster in Warm SSt's

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128725
it doesnt seem that emily is moving since this morning(calif time here). whats up with that? models saying the tail of that colf front gonna pull emily north,but isnt there a high north of emily by ga/sc to keep her where shes at or go west??????????

please esplain to the dummy who hasnt even taken met90
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
4247. ackee
ANYONE notice the NAM has a LOW in the westrn carrb at 84 hours
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Quoting NavarreMark:


I've properly destroyed them and I'll never talk.


ROFL
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4244. angiest
Quoting Patrap:
Im gonna go with Pink FLoyd, Welcome to the Machine foer my Eyewall Listening Pleasure..



you bought a guitar to punish ya Ma,,

You dint like schul,,ya know ya nobody's phoool..




Wouldn't you like to be Comfortably Numb during the storm?
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I laughed at this part of the discussion:

"EMILY IS A SOLID 30-KT DEPRESSION."

That's like saying "I have a monstrous and ferocious kitty cat".
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4242. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh ASCAT a little over an hour ago..
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I think I bettah get outtah heah before I bust another gut and find myself having to sue dewey for his devilishly dastard and humourous comments... lol

Night, ya'll... I'll likely check in latah to see how Em is farin'...
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4240. srada
Quoting Methurricanes:
IS emily lost, i thought only men dont ask for directions?


LOL, She is waiting on Franklin..apparently he cant make up his mind where he wants to go..
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4239. Patrap
Im gonna go with Pink Floyd, Welcome to the Machine for my Eyewall Listening Pleasure..



you bought a guitar to punish ya Ma,,

You dint like schul,,ya know ya nobody's phoool..


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128725
4238. angiest
Quoting DSIjeff:
I think Ems (credit: Reed) will surprise us all.


Not sure where it comes from, but Ems seems to be a nickname for Emily. I've heard people call my daughter that.
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..EMILY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

...just sayin
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4236. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, you are correct, pott. It is just like a strong emotion, you know. It's a feeling you feel, when you feel a feeling your never felt before.

I never felt a feeling I couldnt feel that I felt before.

(?)
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Quoting aspectre:
25.6n78.0w, 26.0n78.0w have been re-evaluated&altered for the 12amGMT ATCF
25.6n78.1w, 26.4n78.2w, 27.1n78.2w are now the most recent positions

exEmily's travel-speed was 8mph(12.9k/h) on a heading of 0.0degrees(North)

The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Copy&paste 22.8n77.0w, 23.7n77.5w-24.6n77.9w, 24.6n77.9w-25.6n78.1w, 25.6n78.1w-26.4n78.2w, 26.4n78.2w-27.1n78.2w, pbi, fpo, ilm, 26.4n78.2w-33.913n78.2w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
exEmily was headed toward passage over OakIsland,southCarolina ~2days8hours from now

The previous mapping (for 6pmGMT)
last point should be west of west end. about 50-60 miles east of Jupiter.

SSW wind at west end
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =SPGF1
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I actually stopped in to ask a couple of questions from the experts and seem to have been distracted by other posts on here. Just saying, must be old age setting in.

It looks like Tropical Mess Emily has been upgraded to TD Emily and she appears to have stalled over the Gulf Stream which is nice and warm and conducive for tropical weather development.

With that being said the trade winds seem to be coming from the west which should help drive Emily to the East; but there is a high on the West Coast of Florida which is keeping Emily off the coast of Florida and not allowing Palm Beach to get any rain.

If this was an actual Tropical Storm, I might be able to ascertain some direction that this system would like to trek towards; but as it stands I have no idea where this system is headed or whether it is just going to collapse. Anyone have an educated guess on what is going to happen next with this storm:
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I see the red smoke, and the flash of green.

I thought Glinda was supposed to arrive by now.

Are the munchkins screaming yet?
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IS emily lost, i thought only men dont ask for directions?
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4229. pottery
Quoting NavarreMark:


Now that ya mention it, I've got my eye on.....Oh never mind.

You can tell me.
I wont tell her.....
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Quoting DSIjeff:


did not read that as "figgering her" initially.
lolol
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Quoting atmoaggie:
I figure this for the epitome of a landfalling hurricane soundtrack:

Link


The mood is right, but for a the duration of a Hurricane you really need a Russian like Shostakovich's 10th. Especially the second movement. This has Major Hurricane written all over.
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4225. Skyepony (Mod)
Pretty good Quicktime of a TRRM pass on Emily today.
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4223. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

You cant go around just saying just saying just like that. Saying just saying is like just saying nothing.

(feel free to add your own punctuation, if you like....)


Sorry, you are correct, pott. It is just like a strong emotion, you know. It's a feeling you feel, when you feel a feeling your never felt before.
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Quoting DSIjeff:
isn't IMO kind of implied by default?
yes, imo
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jeff
watch this

_________________________________

careful
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25.6n78.0w, 26.0n78.0w have been re-evaluated&altered for the 12amGMT ATCF
25.6n78.1w, 26.4n78.2w, 27.1n78.2w are now the most recent positions

TropicalDepressionEmily's travel-speed was 8mph(12.9k/h) on a heading of 0.0degrees(N)

The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Copy&paste 22.8n77.0w, 23.7n77.5w-24.6n77.9w, 24.6n77.9w-25.6n78.1w, 25.6n78.1w-26.4n78.2w, 26.4n78.2w-27.1n78.2w, pbi, fpo, ilm, 26.4n78.2w-33.913n78.2w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TD.Emily was headed toward passage over OakIsland,SouthCarolina ~2days8hours from now

The previous mapping (for 6pmGMT)
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.