Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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getting a bit cloudy here in Miami. oppressively humid though...
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I haven't seen anything for Recon either. I believe they have another flight scheduled for 2PM EST also so let's see if that one takes off.
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2517. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh ASCAT
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How are the winds there?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all.... It's been raining here pretty much since it started very eary this morning [about a.m. I think]. And this is the first time the AOI formerly known as Emily has been small enough to fit into a closeup sat view...



If the NHC description is correct, the coc is actually under the heavy convection for a change...

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2515. jeebsa
Still clear and extremely humid "more than normal"
here on the Treasure Coast. I suspect that will change soon.
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GFS 12Z @ 126Hrs has two CATL storms. Starting to get far out now to have any trust in the models, so take it with a grain of salt.

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Quoting Twinkster:


supposed to be there soon


There is no data from Recon on Google Earth? Are they up in the Air?
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2511. 7544
looks like sw drift right now anyone else see this
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It is now Overcast in Palm Beach County,FL.
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Where is Recon?


supposed to be there soon
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2508. nigel20
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Quoting Twinkster:
I don't think recon will find enough to classify this as a TD again. There are multiple vortices right now and people still don't realizer that radar shows mid level circulations not low level circulations. The remnants of emily are still very high and it remains a broad area of low pressure. I also expect this to go more west than the models are saying based on satellite imagery. seems south florida will be in for a soaking later this afternoon


Where is Recon?
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Morning all.... It's been raining here pretty much since it started very eary this morning [about a.m. I think]. And this is the first time the AOI formerly known as Emily has been small enough to fit into a closeup sat view...



If the NHC description is correct, the coc is actually under the heavy convection for a change...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Sad news out of Afghanistan, believed to be seal team six.


Link
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Saw some people asking about this worthy cause earlier:

http://www.portlight.org/
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Andros is pointing to the center, IMO. Heading NW towards the coast.





You are Correct... Shes about to head into the gulf stream.
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12Z GFS at 90 Hrs. Still hinting at CV season starting up.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


ATCF
AL, 05, 2011080612, , BEST, 0, 256N, 780W, 30, 1011, LO

ex-Emily, like Bret appears to be embedded in a area of high pressures. That's why your not finding low pressures.

I suspect the 1800 numbers will be very different from that...
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Quoting cg2916:
Can't tell you the last time I saw 2500 comments.

Radar:


Emily is moving NW.
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Quoting aussiecold:
well ???


deep subject
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Andros is pointing to the center, IMO. Heading NW towards the coast.



Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
I don't think recon will find enough to classify this as a TD again. There are multiple vortices right now and people still don't realizer that radar shows mid level circulations not low level circulations. The remnants of emily are still very high and it remains a broad area of low pressure. I also expect this to go more west than the models are saying based on satellite imagery. seems south florida will be in for a soaking later this afternoon
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2496. 7544
looking at the visable the west of the blob keeps inching closer to so fla are we still waiting for this north turn like we waited a couple days ago and she didnt is emitly about to stall and pull a fast one and keep on wnw or even west ?
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2:00 AM, you are a long ways away...LOL j/k


Quoting Grothar:


Especially at 2:00 AM.
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Miami Beach Webcam... Showing a Light Breeze.. and Dark Clouds to the East.


Link
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2493. HarryMc
Quoting cg2916:
Can't tell you the last time I saw 2500 comments.


July 30 was 6473. (2500 is not that many for active season.)
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Um, just saying, that is not a north movement. It is norther-ly.....but

Quoting cg2916:
Can't tell you the last time I saw 2500 comments.

Radar:
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well ???
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Emily is doing what she has always done best... She appears to be reforming her LLC... on radar the precip is mostly to the south of a pivot point just south east of Freeport... off Delray... the returns up there are becoming more curved as they enter... on radar, this is the most pronounced point... and it is just inside the northern edge of her canopy... Link
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:
But the pressure is still high. Winds aren't that high also.


ATCF
AL, 05, 2011080612, , BEST, 0, 256N, 780W, 30, 1011, LO

ex-Emily, like Bret appears to be embedded in a area of high pressures. That's why your not finding low pressures.
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Nice Photo....

Emily = Bonnie Pt.2?

Thanks. Clouds have built up more at this point. I'll post others if conditions get worse. Trying to figure out how to post images directly.
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But the pressure is still high. Winds aren't that high also.
Quoting AllStar17:
Andros Town and Nassau are both reporting SW winds according to Google Earth Weather. Miami, FL with NE winds.
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2486. cg2916
Can't tell you the last time I saw 2500 comments.

Radar:
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2485. jonelu
Where is recon and new blog?
Member Since: October 31, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 884
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Nice Photo....

Emily = Bonnie Pt.2?


Don't bring up Bonnie! You'll trigger NavareMark's PTSD...:(
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting AllStar17:
Andros Town and Nassau are both reporting SW winds according to Google Earth Weather. Miami, FL with NE winds.


Hmmmmm.... Where the heck is Recon!
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2482. HCW
Quoting Grothar:


Is there an animation for this image. Good image.


Let me get that working and I will also add recon data
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2481. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Remily does appear to be heading for the coast. However, sometimes looks can be deceiving. Recon should have some answers a little later.


Especially at 2:00 AM.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting TarheelNMiami:
Link


Nice Photo....

Emily = Bonnie Pt.2?
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Andros Town and Nassau are both reporting SW winds according to Google Earth Weather. Miami, FL with NE winds.
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2477. Grothar
The best she has looked. Animation link on bottom





Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Link
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After looking at a few loops.. I Believe the system has resumed a WNW/NW motion and is moving at a speed lower than 5 mph.

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2474. SLU
Once a man, twice a child ......

...EUGENE NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

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2473. Grothar
Quoting HCW:
Will update every 5 mins



Is there an animation for this image. Good image.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
2472. Grothar
Looks like there might be some new invests coming soon. The wave closest to the Antilles should be under a lot of shear and dry air to the North. However, the wave coming off of Africa probably has a better chance of developing.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
twc guy just said some spots of 90 degree water reported just se of fl. high alert
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Quoting ackee:
What direction is EX/EMAILY MOVING NOW ?

A WEST
B WNW
C NW
D NE

NW-NNW
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This ridge wouldn't bode well for the CONUS and Caribbean if any CV storms try to spin up. Of course it's only 30 Hrs out as the 12Z GFS is running right now. Let's see how this run compares to the last.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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