Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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2569. Patrap
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2568. GetReal
Recon is currently over the N. GOM, heading SE towards the Bahamas.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
First time I see a storm dissipate keeping TS status in the east pacific..


It's post tropical and isn't affecting land.
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Good afternoon Baha,

Did you see this earlier... another Bahamian surfaces:

2136. androsann 7:49 AM EDT on August 06, 2011 +1
Morning all, long time lurker and very occasional poster here from the very north of Andros Island in The Bahamas where we are having heavy, continuous rain at the moment with some thunder and a very light breeze. Am expecting it to continue like this for much of the day.

Member Since: September 2, 2008
Hey, I missed this!!! And if this is the person I think it is, this may be someone I know from that area... it's prolly pretty soggy there this midday...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22293
First time I see a storm dissipate keeping TS status in the east pacific..
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2564. guygee
The swirlygig formerly known as Emily is definitely not heading NNW anymore.
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2563. 7544
Quoting GetReal:



IMO a move towards the WNW and coming ashore along the se Florida coast in the short term.


agree she looks staionary right now in hot waters tho could be a close call anything could happen today
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2562. SQUAWK
Quoting wxhatt:
As of the last observation at 16:28:00Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: NE (41°)
Location: 11 miles (17 km) to the ENE (78°) from Gulfport, MS, USA


That direction of travel is not going to take them anywhere near where Ems is supposed to be. Wonder where they are going?
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2561. Grothar
http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/3431/goeseast4kmir cta2011080.gif
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26390
BBL.. Out to Lunch.

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2559. GetReal
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


So that means?



IMO a move towards the WNW and coming ashore along the se Florida coast in the short term.
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Seems a real waste of a recon for what amounts to a strong tropical wave at this point... one that's close enough to the coast to show up on radar already.

This feels like typical Twave handoff to me...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22293
2557. Mikla
Vis with NOGAPS SLP overlay:
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2556. 7544
Quoting GetReal:


It appears that the Bermuda high is stronger than expected, and ridging towards the west.


So that means?

so if thats the case it could still head west right into fl correct its not moving that much now maybe a drift so the it might have time to nudge it tia ?
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Looks like a bigger threat to the SE than we thought.


Agreed.
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
GOES East switched to RSO, 8 images/hour. Will take a couple hours to fill.

Link
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2553. jonelu
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Best case track would be over Florida and making landfall in Texas as a Tropical Depression... Giving both area's a soaking.
That would be a dream come true...but doesnt look to be in the cards.
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Quoting GetReal:


It appears that the Bermuda high is stronger than expected, and ridging towards the west.


Looks like a bigger threat to the SE than we thought.
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Hey guys. Went out for a bit. Anything new with Ex-Emily?
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Quoting GetReal:


It appears that the Bermuda high is stronger than expected, and ridging towards the west.


So that means?
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2549. bwi
Calm winds in the FL Keys, this from a light 50 meters above the water.

Conditions at SMKF1 as of
(12:00 pm EDT)
Wind Speed (WSPD): 0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 0 kts
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
12:00 pm N ( 0 deg ) 0 kts
11:50 am E ( 96 deg ) 0 kts
11:40 am ESE ( 112 deg ) 0 kts
11:30 am S ( 186 deg ) 1 kts
11:20 am SE ( 132 deg ) 1 kts
11:10 am S ( 172 deg ) 1 kts

Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(EDT) GDR GST
11:22 am S ( 190 deg ) 3 kts

08 06 11:00 am S 1 2 - - - - 29.99 +0.04 87.4 - 78.4 - - 0.20
08 06 10:00 am - 0 1 - - - - 29.98 +0.03 87.6 - 77.9 - - 0.06
08 06 9:00 am ESE 1 2 - - - - 29.96 +0.04 86.0 - 76.5 - - 0.15
08 06 8:00 am ENE 2 2 - - - - 29.95 +0.02 85.5 - 76.3 - - 0.39
08 06 7:00 am NE 2 3 - - - - 29.95 +0.03 84.6 - 76.5 - - 0.77
08 06 6:00 am - 0 2 - - - - 29.93 +0.00 84.6 - 76.1 - - 1.23
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon Baha,

Did you see this earlier... another Bahamian surfaces:

2136. androsann 7:49 AM EDT on August 06, 2011 +1
Morning all, long time lurker and very occasional poster here from the very north of Andros Island in The Bahamas where we are having heavy, continuous rain at the moment with some thunder and a very light breeze. Am expecting it to continue like this for much of the day.

Member Since: September 2, 2008
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Best case track would be over Florida and making landfall in Texas as a Tropical Depression... Giving both area's a soaking.
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2546. jonelu
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Lets see if that makes it to the coast. Ive seen alot of convection just fizzle out before it gets over the coast. We need the rain...crossing fingers.
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2545. wxhatt
As of the last observation at 16:28:00Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: NE (41°)
Location: 11 miles (17 km) to the ENE (78°) from Gulfport, MS, USA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2544. GetReal


It appears that the Bermuda high is stronger than expected, and ridging towards the west.
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Recon is showing up on Google Earth..

Misson 14 into Emily
AF307 - Air Force WC-130J
Updated on our site at:
16:30Z on Aug 6, 2011
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
It is now Overcast in Palm Beach County,FL.


overcast in Miami Beach as well. Winds are calm. Hoping for some rain this pm.
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Quoting jonelu:
Very hot and sunny here in WPB today. Not a cloud in the sky so far. Forecast says 60% chance of rain...we will see. Im not holding my breath.


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Quoting TarheelNMiami:


some folks are saying wind shear from the east is causing an 'optical illusion'. i don't think so.
we shall see when recon gets there they should be there in a few hours
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
i see that too , looks to me its going to come closer to SE Florida the highest chances f rain i see are MIami-dade,broward,palm beach, martin, st lucie counties


some folks are saying wind shear from the east is causing an 'optical illusion'. i don't think so.
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2538. jonelu
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i see that too , looks to me its going to come closer to SE Florida the highest chances f rain i see are MIami-dade,broward,palm beach, martin, st lucie counties
Very hot and sunny here in WPB today. Not a cloud in the sky so far. Forecast says 60% chance of rain...we will see. Im not holding my breath.
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Quoting GetReal:


Which way do I go??? Do I follow the flow???


Shes clearly heading WNW or NW... Not due W... Not due N.. She's heading in between.
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Wait has recon cancelled?
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2535. Patrap
Mobile is NOT the Base for the AFR HH Recon,,its Keesler,AFB in Biloxi,Miss
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2534. GetReal


Which way do I go??? Do I follow the flow???
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Recon Is heading out leaving Mobile as we speak
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Looks to me like a rainy p.m. for SE FL....


How are you over? Any wind?

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
On their way

000
URNT15 KNHC 061628
AF307 1405A EMILY HDOB 01 20110806


Good News... Ex-Emily just expanded...
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Looks like Recon just took off.
Link
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
The COC is to the NW of Andros Island heading NW.
to me its WNW
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On their way

000
URNT15 KNHC 061628
AF307 1405A EMILY HDOB 01 20110806
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The COC is to the NW of Andros Island heading NW.
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Quoting 7544:
looks like sw drift right now anyone else see this
i see that too , looks to me its going to come closer to SE Florida the highest chances f rain i see are MIami-dade,broward,palm beach, martin, st lucie counties
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Looks to me like a rainy p.m. for SE FL....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22293
2524. jeebsa
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT
Very interesting
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2523. Mikla
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Open.
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:
How are the winds there?
Pretty light. Rain seem to have stopped now...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22293
Convection with the Storm just Expanded and Grew Larger in the last frame:

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getting a bit cloudy here in Miami. oppressively humid though...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.