Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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2619. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
Quoting stoormfury:
The GFS in successive runs develops the african wave and brings it south of Barbados on sat 13th august. it was the gfs WHICH initialised hurricane DEAN while it was a Twave over Africa in august 2007. NOW IT IS DOING THE SAME FOR THE F STORM


Also develops the wave behind the one just off the African Coast that is right now in WestCentral Africa as a longtracker that goes thru the NE Caribbean and later to near the SE U.S coast.
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2617. SQUAWK
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Google Earth from Tropical Atlantic is listing two Mission 14, select the one "Mission 14 into five"


Thanks NRT

Had to reload it. The second mission wasn't showing up on mine.
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Funny thing is... If this does head west/northwest and makes a Landfall in Florida it would be more of an event than Bonnie..lol... even if its not even a tropical system.... The Solid Rain sheild is 3 times larger than Bonnie.
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Why does the NHC continue to say that Emily's remnants are moving north? . A high pressure ridge is blocking a North movement and rain and squalls are 15 miles off the SE coast of Florida.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.htm l

.UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW MINOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR LOOP SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS...JUST EAST OF
OUR OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS STREAMING
OVER THE AREA. RECENTLY ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FLARE NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -80 AND THE
COVERAGE SLOWLY EXPANDING WEST INTO OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE BAHAMAS...THE LOCAL FLOW WILL
STEADILY BACK TOWARD THE WESTERLY DIRECTION. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. 85/AG
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Glitch! LOL
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Quoting RukusBoondocks:
recon just flew over my house..I waved but I dont think they saw me.



LOL.....F A S
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2611. 7544
if this was ts watches would have been posted by now for so fla but its a open wave
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2610. beell
850mb & 700mb
Valid 21Z

click to make emily look bigger



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Phew! All this weather blogging has me beat. BBL!
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The LLC is Half-way between Grand Bahama and Andros Island.
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On the 12pmGMT ATCF, the NHC re-evaluated then downgraded TropicalWaveEmily to a Low...
...as of 6pmGMT yesterday.

exEmily's travel-speed was 11.5mph(18.5k/h) on a heading of 354.8degrees(North)

The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Copy&paste 21.1n75.2w, 21.9n76.1w-22.8n77.0w, 22.8n77.0w-23.7n77.5w, 23.7n77.5w-24.6n77.9w, 24.6n77.9w-25.6n78.0w, pbi, fpo, ccz, ghc, 24.6n77.9w-26.646n78.107w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
exEmily was headed toward passage over PelicanPoint,GrandBahama a bit less than 1hour from now

The previous mapping (for the 6amGmT ATCF)
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The GFS in successive runs develops the african wave and brings it south of Barbados on sat 13th august. it was the gfs WHICH initialised hurricane DEAN while it was a Twave over Africa in august 2007. NOW IT IS DOING THE SAME FOR THE F STORM
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Quoting RukusBoondocks:
recon just flew over my house..I waved but I dont think they saw me.,yea we saw you
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Hot and extremely, offensively humid it Port St. Lucie. Light, very light, barely there breeze. HUMID, HUMID, HUMID. Small white puffy clouds in beautiful blue sky. Come on Emily, visit us with lots of cloud cover and much needed rain! Please do NOT sit out there and do a massive RI like a couple of your predecessors that shall remain nameless in this post (if I don't say the names, she will not blow up to major proportions! Superstitious! LOL)
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The overall system is moving just West of North.
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2601. hahaguy
Quoting GetReal:
2569. Patrap 4:55 PM GMT on August 06, 2011

Slow movement towards the west??? I believe that we may have seen a similar movie like this a few years back. Hope not....


I second that.
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2599. 7544
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Emily is Drifting NW or WNW... Hopefully Recon will shed light on its movement.





will we find out before 2pm tia
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2597. wxhatt
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Emily is Drifting NW or WNW... Hopefully Recon will shed light on its movement.





I think it only seems that way because of the spinning of a broad/ disorganised system. The official forcast and models are all taking it north then northeast...
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In space news..

SUBSIDING STORM: Earth's magnetic field is still reverberating from a CME strike on August 5th that sparked one of the strongest geomagnetic storms in years. Registering 8 on the 0 to 9 "K-index" scale of magnetic disturbances, the storm at maximum sparked auroras across Europe and in many northern-tier US states. Travis Novitsky sends this picture from Grand Portage, Minnesota:



"For an hour and a half the sky was filled with dancing lights, some of the best I've ever seen in Northern Minnesota!" says Novitsky.


The storm is subsiding now, but it could flare up again as gusty solar wind continues to buffet Earth's magnetic field. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras.


Link
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Quoting SQUAWK:


Not according to Google Earth Overlay from Tropical Atlantic.


Google Earth from Tropical Atlantic is listing two Mission 14, select the one "Mission 14 into five"
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LLC is between Andros Island and Grand Bahama Island moving WNW/NW.



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2593. 7544
plane will say wnw, n, nnw .or nw what you think ill say wnw
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Emily is Drifting NW or WNW... Hopefully Recon will shed light on its movement.






They might issue warnings and evacs
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As of the last observation at 16:56:00Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: SSE (164°)
Location: 111 miles (178 km) to the SSE (151°) from Gulfport, MS, USA.
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The DVD version of Rush's upcoming Time Machine 2011: Live in Cleveland was made available for pre-order through Amazon.com a couple of weeks ago and now the Blu-ray version is also available for pre-order at this link. The DVD/Blu-ray was directed by Rush documentary filmmakers Sam Dunn and Scot McFadyen, engineered by Rich Chycki and is being released on October 25th by Concord Records. No other details have been released as of yet. Pre-order your copy at Amazon (DVD, Blu-ray).



WONDERFUL!
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2588. SLU
Looks like a circulation is forming near 10n 17w.


Image and video hosting by TinyPic
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2587. GetReal
I'll BBL.


Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 17:01Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Tropical Depression: Number 5 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 01

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 17:00Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 28.7N 88.0W
Location: 129 miles (208 km) to the SSW (202) from Pensacola, FL, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 6,400 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -10C
Flight Level Dew Point: -19C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
D-value: 40 geopotential meters
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Emily is Drifting NW or WNW... Hopefully Recon will shed light on its movement.



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2584. nigel20
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2583. GetReal
Quoting SQUAWK:


Not according to Google Earth Overlay from Tropical Atlantic.



On my overlay RECON mission 14 is approximately 150 miles SSE of Mobile,Al.
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2582. JLPR2
I posted a image of this disturbance in the coast of Africa a few hours ago and several bloggers said... it just came off Africa, needs to hold on to the convection...

The disturbance has been there for awhile, sitting off Africa, apparently stationary, probably the convection waiting for the LLC, or vice-versa.

Acording to ASCAT it already has a nice LLC although slightly open to the NE and embedded in the monsoon trof.

Spin is becoming very obvious on this RAMSDIS loop.
Link
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
Appears to be a decent circulation....clearly moving N of west just south of central grand Bahama......Long range radar sped up reflects it pretty clear.
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Quoting GetReal:
2569. Patrap 4:55 PM GMT on August 06, 2011

Slow movement towards the west??? I believe that we may have seen a similar movie like this a few years back. Hope not....


Looks like that pain in the butt we had back in 04 sitting off the coast that had no idea where it was going
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2579. wxhatt
Quoting SQUAWK:


That direction of travel is not going to take them anywhere near where Ems is supposed to be. Wonder where they are going?


I think that is because the plane was still taking off from the airport (ascending).
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cant beleieve Emily didnt reach hurricane status I mean its August for poops sake
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2576. Mikla
If you look at Radar Base Velocity image out of Miami, it appears the center of rotation has not moved N in over 4 hours... in fact, the whole thing seams stalled. To me this is an indication of a small climate change (possibly the ridge building in) and a potential change in direction.
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2575. SQUAWK
Quoting GetReal:
Recon is currently over the N. GOM, heading SE towards the Bahamas.


Not according to Google Earth Overlay from Tropical Atlantic.
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2574. GetReal
2569. Patrap 4:55 PM GMT on August 06, 2011

Slow movement towards the west??? I believe that we may have seen a similar movie like this a few years back. Hope not....
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2572. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Emily
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




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recon just flew over my house..I waved but I dont think they saw me.
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2570. JLPR2
Quoting Patrap:


Looking interesting.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
2569. Patrap
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.