Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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2669. JRRP
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
O_O

Jesu Santisimo!!!!
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convection continues to build west towards South Florida and sea breeze thunderstorms are developing hen everything collides we are going to get a massive soaking later looks for 1-2 inches of rain with 3-5 isolated . IMO
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Quoting Jedkins01:


It actually does look like the even the low level center is moving WNW right now, but no more than 5 mph. Like I said, don't be convinced its going into Florida, because it should continue North. However, it does appear to be drifting WNW or NW right now. If you look at the long range radar, you can find the center of circulation which appears to have shifted west.



Again though, I will stress, unorganized systems like this can be deceiving to the eye, I agree that a westerly movement seems to be the case but that doesn't mean it is. Radar itself tilts upward and the farther away everything is the more the radar beams are returning from a higher elevation angle, not only because of the radar tilt itself, but because of the earth's curve as well.

That being said, what I am most likely looking at on radar is a mid-level spin moving WNW as a result of heavy convective buildup, but as weak as this is and because of the track record with this system, the low level circulation could still be moving even due north while this spin we see is moving west.


The best we can do is just keep watching it, and let the experts down at the NHC pinpoint for us where the low level center is and where its headed.


Radar agree's with you:

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192hrs... What is this? In the GOM?

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
O_O

What date is that, 08/22??
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The circle fits the disturbance quite nicely.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

A very dangerous pattern indeed. That storm I posted passed near PR, over Hispaniola and approaches NC by the end of the run.


Similar track to Emily then, I guess, though it must be stronger than Emily early on so it can survive Hispaniola.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Andros is pointing to the center, IMO. Heading NW towards the coast.





It actually does look like the even the low level center is moving WNW right now, but no more than 5 mph. Like I said, don't be convinced its going into Florida, because it should continue North. However, it does appear to be drifting WNW or NW right now. If you look at the long range radar, you can find the center of circulation which appears to have shifted west.



Again though, I will stress, unorganized systems like this can be deceiving to the eye, I agree that a westerly movement seems to be the case but that doesn't mean it is. Radar itself tilts upward and the farther away everything is the more the radar beams are returning from a higher elevation angle, not only because of the radar tilt itself, but because of the earth's curve as well.

That being said, what I am most likely looking at on radar is a mid-level spin moving WNW as a result of heavy convective buildup, but as weak as this is and because of the track record with this system, the low level circulation could still be moving even due north while this spin we see is moving west.


The best we can do is just keep watching it, and let the experts down at the NHC pinpoint for us where the low level center is and where its headed.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
O_O


Wow, that's a big storm. Good bit out, so might not happen, but still something to watch. I remember the EMCWF was at one point bringing one of last year's Cape Verde storms over Florida as a major cane, but then we didn't have any landfalls.
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Quoting Levi32:
The GFS is indeed concerning with its pattern over the next two weeks, though obviously considering storms 10-15 days out on the model must be taken with big grains of salt. However, it has consistently developed the next wave coming off of Africa, and the one behind that as well. Both could come pretty far west before recurving, which is why the GFS already tries to threaten the U.S. with them. If one or both of them do indeed develop, then we will be able to discuss more details on that. For now, we wait. Finally a breather....lol. I'm a little bit glad for that.

A very dangerous pattern indeed. That storm I posted passed near PR, over Hispaniola and approaches NC by the end of the run.
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Quoting Levi32:
..... Finally a breather....lol. I'm a little bit glad for that.
It's been a bit busy for the last three weeks, hasn't it? Didn't expect to see 5 whole systems before the 10th of August... lol
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Here is an interesting Facebook post Cyclone Oz made.

"Hey! Here are the links to the Introduction and cover art to my new novel "Chasers" I am about to complete. (Synopsis: A rag-tag team of government workers and storm chasers discover a deadly secret that lies within the inner eye wall of dangerous hurricanes.)"

Cover Art

Introduction
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2657. wxhatt

I think we are done with emily as far as any future land interaction. It will be heading out into the wild blue yonder!

;p
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Link Gust up to 18kts out of nne
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2654. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

lol I think that's either Franklin, Gert or Harvey.


I believe that's Gert.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
2653. JRRP
Quoting SLU:
Looks like a circulation is forming near 10n 17w.


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is true

Link
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Its really hard to find which direction this "blob" is moving....

I though it was moving NW .. but now it appears to be moving WNW...

WNW or NW ??? Come on Emily... Decide where you want to go!
in my opinion it is stalled with a WNW Drift , but again lets wait and see what Recon says but for sure its not moving NORTH
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
O_O


that is where the gfs had dean at this far out in 2007. Just look for persistency this far out as to whether something will form or not
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Quoting barotropic:


Actually even the timing is pretty close to what the models had predicted, I believe so anyway.
Yep. Was supposed to pass near / over Grand Bahama sometime by Sat 2 pm.....

Despite all the noise in the market, NHC did a better than expected job with the forecast on this. At least the track, anyway.... :o) And the models were variously suggesting the demise scenario at some point or the other.

So the "right" answer was in there, but we couldn't tell which one it was operationally... definitely a point for further thought post-season.
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2649. Levi32
The GFS is indeed concerning with its pattern over the next two weeks, though obviously considering storms 10-15 days out on the model must be taken with big grains of salt. However, it has consistently developed the next wave coming off of Africa, and the one behind that as well. Both could come pretty far west before recurving, which is why the GFS already tries to threaten the U.S. with them. If one or both of them do indeed develop, then we will be able to discuss more details on that. For now, we wait. Finally a breather....lol. I'm a little bit glad for that.
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Looks like a TD

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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Its really hard to find which direction this "blob" is moving....

I though it was moving NW .. but now it appears to be moving WNW...

WNW or NW ??? Come on Emily... Decide where you want to go!

Women, we men know nothing about them. lol
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Quoting stoormfury:
The GFS in successive runs develops the african wave and brings it south of Barbados on sat 13th august. it was the gfs WHICH initialised hurricane DEAN while it was a Twave over Africa in august 2007. NOW IT IS DOING THE SAME FOR THE F STORM


With hype like that, I'm waiting for the tagline from whichever insurance company you must be working for...
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Quoting ElConando:


For a second I thought that was Emily but then I saw it was 384hrs out lol.

lol I think that's either Franklin, Gert or Harvey.
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intrested to see what the Next TWO states i think we will see Emily back
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Slowly Drifting NW... It wont make landfall.. but it'll get close.
how do you know? no one knows for sure
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Quoting Patrap:


Its really hard to find which direction this "blob" is moving....

I though it was moving NW .. but now it appears to be moving WNW...

WNW or NW ??? Come on Emily... Decide where you want to go!
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
O_O


For a second I thought that was Emily but then I saw it was 384hrs out lol.
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Quoting stoormfury:
The GFS in successive runs develops the african wave and brings it south of Barbados on sat 13th august. it was the gfs WHICH initialised hurricane DEAN while it was a Twave over Africa in august 2007. NOW IT IS DOING THE SAME FOR THE F STORM
Can you post a link to the GFS model? TIA !
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O_O
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Couple of other AOI's in the Atlantic to look foward too once the remnants of Emily or whatever it could be upgraded to leave through the Atlantic.
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2636. Patrap
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Quoting Grothar:
This is looking better than I expected... same location, different day.... lol. Looks like Windwards are in for another rainy / windy weekend...

There were no development chances seen with this, IIRC?
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2634. guygee
Quoting DSIjeff:
You can see here how DOOM is located just off-shore.

Looks more like rain to me. For me, DOOM = (lack of rain) + (salt water invading my wells) = Red($$$)
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Slowly Drifting NW... It wont make landfall.. but it'll get close.
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2632. beell
Later.
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2631. Levi32
Quoting barotropic:


Actually even the timing is pretty close to ehat the models had predicted, I believe so anyway.


This is no victory for the models really. They had her too far east from the get-go and never really got her far enough west until Thursday, and even then only half of them kind of saw it, though they continued to swing back and forth.
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Quoting Grothar:


What about the dry air...? Link
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2628. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Emily
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




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If this had any precip on the W side, ya'll over there in MIA, FLL, and WPB would already be recording it... that's how close the centre is to the US coast already... still looks like it'll drift far enough W to give SE FL afternoon and evening showers.... would be nice if it just drifted up the coast and went ashore over JAX... give those guys some long-desired tropical moisture...
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Looks like ex-Emily is on her way out to the NNW, as stated yesterday due to the weakness in the ridge that should steer her in that direction. Florida won't get the landfall here, but the idea that this would pass within 100 miles of the coast proved to be correct.


Actually even the timing is pretty close to what the models had predicted, I believe so anyway.
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2624. beell
If anything, the low level ridge to the east re-builds under or S of ExEm. Previous trough and the westerlies that follow should keep the ridge soft to her NE and prevent getting trapped against the coast.
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Quoting ElConando:
The overall system is moving just West of North.


Yep.
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Quoting DSIjeff:


That is model consensus with XTRP

Seems legit.
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2620. Levi32
Good morning.

Looks like ex-Emily is on her way out to the NNW, as stated yesterday due to the weakness in the ridge that should steer her in that direction. Florida won't get the landfall here, but the idea that this would pass within 100 miles of the coast proved to be correct.
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2619. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26425

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.