Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting Grothar:
Anyone is Southeast Florida must feel the oppressive heat and humidity right now. The lower clouds are moving rapidly SW and the upper clouds are moving NW. Beginning to get very cloudy over the ocean. Darker clouds can be seen way out. I've put the air-conditioner on the "hysterical" level and sitting here drinking my Mountain Dew and waiting. Just hope we get some rain from this.


You probably won't, biggest chance you'll get rain is when the deep westerly flow comes around when those remnants depart. Ive been getting heavy storms 7 days straigt and over 20 inches since the rain kicked in in late June. Who needs tropical cyclone/low pressure systems when our daily pattern generates plenty of rain.


Seriously, we don't want a tropical cyclone in Florida, the drought is improving off the daily storm pattern, people are acting like we are still in Mid June when everything was bad. If you don't believe me, go look at what NOAA has to say about drought improvement in Florida.

Granted it got so bad that it still has a long way to go, but overall it has improved greatly. Florida doesn't need tropical cyclones.

Being also a naturalist/outdoorsman along with being a weather lover, I have spent a lot of time in different parts of the State over the last few months. Much of Central and South Florida has definitely improved dramatically. Ground water still has a long way to go, but everything is headed the right way.
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The more direct approach suits me just fine too!!

Quoting AussieStorm:

Would you go away please.
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Quoting o22sail:


I couldn't help but notice that as well.
Don't need another Isabel passing over my house.


Not with Emily though, this is 300 hrs out.
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Would you go away please. you know who "you" are.
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2715. Grothar
Quoting CatfishJones:


If I'm not mistaken, the GFS shows shear improving somewhat today and tomorrow (an improvement since the 2nd). The mass of dry air moving in front of it seems to be more detrimental to the development. Please let me know if I'm completely off here.


No, not completely off. Shear and dry air combined are always a hinderance for development.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
2714. o22sail
Quoting tropicfreak:


Looks like a setup very similar to Isabel, an area of high pressure to its north forcing it inland.


I couldn't help but notice that as well.
Don't need another Isabel passing over my house.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
EMILY...WHICH IS APPROACHING GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS...HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING.

The NHC noticed.


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Oh lord, you would think that others have better things to do than come on to this site and make up some BS. I can see once or maybe twice posting the same s**t, but now you are just making yourself look silly..

You KNOW who you are....I am not going to quote you, this is all the glory you'll get from me.. :-) :-)
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Quoting Goldenblack:
Right on point PR! thx



No biggie.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Emily


Muifa
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Right on point PR! thx


Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
EMILY...WHICH IS APPROACHING GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS...HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING.

The NHC noticed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
EMILY...WHICH IS APPROACHING GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS...HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND PRODUCE SQUALLS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY.

wow!! 80%
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Quoting CatfishJones:


If I'm not mistaken, the GFS shows shear improving somewhat today and tomorrow. The mass of dry air moving in front of it seems to be more detrimental to the development. Please let me know if I'm completely off here.

SAL
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Quoting Goldenblack:
Anyone noticing the increase in spin (could be mid level too) observed on the visible satellite?

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
EMILY...WHICH IS APPROACHING GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS...HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING.

The NHC noticed.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
The PLANFALF model has STILL not changed in 8 days. It brings Cat3 Emily to just south of Wilmington. With McTavish numbers still in the 6.2 range, preparations should be moving ahead rapidly now. Dr. Bongevine is still holding to this forecast.
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I am observing the same, the recon is going to be interesting....

Quoting NJcat3cane:
ex soon to be emily again is looking alrigt right now
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2702. Grothar
Nice loop of ex-Emily.


Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
2701. Levi32
Quoting barotropic:


Actually Levi...the first four forecast's out five days had emily either hitting SE Florida or going thru the western Bahamas west of or just over grand Bahama. Nearly what she is doing now.


Some of them did, but had the short-term track incorrect, which is very important for the folks in Hispaniola. You can't forget that.

The models were making 100-200 mile shifts right up until she dissipated.
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I'm here in Freeport ,Bahamas, what time can we expect the rain here...I wouldn't say we will see much wind with this system.
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Anyone noticing the increase in spin (could be mid level too) observed on the visible satellite?
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Meanwhile in the EPAC....

Nada.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
ex soon to be emily again is looking alrigt right now
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Quoting Grothar:


The models don't pick this up very well. Looks like a lot of high shear in the region. I believe the will be more concerned with the wave off of Africa. Still a long way out, but something to really watch.


If I'm not mistaken, the GFS shows shear improving somewhat today and tomorrow (an improvement since the 2nd). The mass of dry air moving in front of it seems to be more detrimental to the development. Please let me know if I'm completely off here.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Yeah, obviously too far out to take seriously, but it does show the pattern that could set up this season.


It's the year for the East Coast.
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Quoting NavarreMark:


The U.S. can afford it. Our credits never been better.
lololololololololololololololololololol
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Radar agree's with you:



Be careful though, like I said, radar and the eye can be deceiving!
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2692. Grothar
Anyone is Southeast Florida must feel the oppressive heat and humidity right now. The lower clouds are moving rapidly SW and the upper clouds are moving NW. Beginning to get very cloudy over the ocean. Darker clouds can be seen way out. I've put the air-conditioner on the "hysterical" level and sitting here drinking my Mountain Dew and waiting. Just hope we get some rain from this.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
EMILY...WHICH IS APPROACHING GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS...HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND PRODUCE SQUALLS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/AVILA
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 17:36Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Tropical Depression: Number 5 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 02

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 17:33Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 27.8N 84.9W
Location: 149 miles (240 km) to the W (265°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 6,400 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 130° at 13 knots (From the SE at ~ 14.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -11°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -23°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
D-value: 41 geopotential meters
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Quoting AussieStorm:

What date is that, 08/22??

Yeah, obviously too far out to take seriously, but it does show the pattern that could set up this season.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting Seflhurricane:
convection continues to build west towards South Florida and sea breeze thunderstorms are developing hen everything collides we are going to get a massive soaking later looks for 1-2 inches of rain with 3-5 isolated . IMO


I doubt that, dry mid level air wrapped into South Florida this morning per atmospheric soundings. Not sure if its still present, but if it is that will limit convective activity.

Also wherever you have vorticity, you tend to have negative vorticity right outside of it, and high clouds are blowing towards South Florida from the remnants. All those factors will help to keep showers and thunderstorms more tame, not an explosion of them. There will still be some though with deep moisture in the lowers levels and sea breeze convergence.

Up here in Central Florida, we are not under the the negative vorticity, we don't have a large layer of dry mid level air and we have plenty of heating. Therefore thunderstorm coverage will be high in Central and North Florida. The only limiting factor is some mid level warm air which will limit the coverage a little. But still, classic afternoon heavy storms will be around. My area has been getting very heavy storms today in Pinellas County. 7th day in a row with a heavy storm here. Florida is reclaiming swamp land here! lol
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way way way to early to tell where those future storms might go.

the 12z run shows NC but the previous run had it going near the FL straits.

just gonna have to wait and see.
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2686. Grothar
Quoting BahaHurican:
This is looking better than I expected... same location, different day.... lol. Looks like Windwards are in for another rainy / windy weekend...

There were no development chances seen with this, IIRC?


The models don't pick this up very well. Looks like a lot of high shear in the region. I believe the will be more concerned with the wave off of Africa. Still a long way out, but something to really watch.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
2685. 7544
lloks like we may have close low by the time the hh gets to her does this still have time to reach ts status even if its stationary now
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Anyone here have access to rainman weather Miami 3D radar?
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Im Guessing for 2PM TWO a 80-90% Chance of Development.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
2pm TWO will likely be a little late they may want to wait for some of recons info


i agree.
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Levi... You Say Emily is heading NNW... but she is clearly heading WNW or NW? What is your reasoning behind this?
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2pm TWO will likely be a little late they may want to wait for some of recons info
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2679. 7544
how soon before recon will tell us what direction shes going
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As far as the possible track of upcoming Cape Verde storms, are the steering patterns forcast to change in the near future? If they do not, I would be very surprised to see a storm/hurricane get anywhere near the US East Coast (just like last year). Even with Emily being a very weak system and entering the Carribean south of PR and Hispanola (in early August no less), it/its remnants still appears poised to miss the East Coast completely.
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yeah um in 2 weeks on this 12z GFS run, we have either franklin or gert making landfall in north carolina as a major hurricane. o_0
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recon is approaching west coast of florida
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2675. DSIjeff
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The convection's western edge is approx 85 miles east of miami,fl , based on doppler radar so the rain is not very far only a slight shift west will bring that rain over the coastal areas of SE florida
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
O_O


Looks like a setup very similar to Isabel, an area of high pressure to its north forcing it inland.
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looks like emilys llc 's pulling in some moisture ,i think we'll have a ts by 11pm,expect a nice sized convective burst near her center over the next few hrs imo
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2671. Patrap
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Quoting Levi32:


This is no victory for the models really. They had her too far east from the get-go and never really got her far enough west until Thursday, and even then only half of them kind of saw it, though they continued to swing back and forth.


Actually Levi...the first four forecast's out five days had emily either hitting SE Florida or going thru the western Bahamas west of or just over grand Bahama. Nearly what she is doing now.
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2669. JRRP
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
O_O

Jesu Santisimo!!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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