Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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2769. jeebsa
Quoting Landfall2004:

Hello from Stuart.
Good to see someone from Martin County on here. Hope we get some rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

32 inches? Wow...That almost compares to TD# 19 in 1970 that caused 41 inches of rain in PR.


Didn't Hurricane Danny in 1997 drop 41" of rain in Dauphin Island?
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2767. Levi32
Quoting Twinkster:



hey levi is south florida going to get any rain from ex-emily?


Maybe some showers, especially in the afternoon heat aided by the instability near ex-Emily, but if she's already making her NNW turn, then I wouldn't expect a whole lot.
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Quoting Goldenblack:
Google Earth is p***ing me off today...Not updating well.


I meant visually see them.
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Quoting ElConando:
2741. Looks like PR and Hispaniola will get some dryness for a short while.

They need to dry out.
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Google Earth is p***ing me off today...Not updating well.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Can anyone see them?
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Drats.

Thanks, Levi!

Is it strong enough to pull moisture with it? I noticed that when some of the stronger Hurricanes passed us by for the east coast, or the panhandle, we got into an even drier pattern, like they'd taken our moisture with them.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Camp Hansen Range Control in Okinawa recorded 32 inches of rain in 2 days from Muifa, before the observation site failed sometime yesterday.



The only other ob sites on that island listed on WU have no precip observations.

Kadena AFB is not on WU, but NOAA's international weather has it. http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/RODN.html
The 24 hour recap says 30 inches, but the rain started long before 17 UTC yesterday according to radar. According to another, private source, closer to 42 inches, total, for Muifa's passage at Kadena.

Believable, given the radar loop for Muifa's passage: Link

Some of that is undoubtedly orographically enhanced:

32 inches? Wow...That almost compares to TD# 19 in 1970 that caused 41 inches of rain in PR.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
LOL, I don't know if you'd find a lot of weather lovers (or boat lovers, etc.) agreeing with your perspective. Except for that obvious point about not being human.... ;-) :-)

Quoting prcane4you:
she's going? Emily is just a female name for a storm.Emily is not a human being.
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Hurricane Hunters are now over Sarasota,FL at 22,356 feet.


Can anyone see them?
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2757. Grothar
Quoting Jedkins01:


You probably won't, biggest chance you'll get rain is when the deep westerly flow comes around when those remnants depart. Ive been getting heavy storms 7 days straigt and over 20 inches since the rain kicked in in late June. Who needs tropical cyclone/low pressure systems when our daily pattern generates plenty of rain.


Seriously, we don't want a tropical cyclone in Florida, the drought is improving off the daily storm pattern, people are acting like we are still in Mid June when everything was bad. If you don't believe me, go look at what NOAA has to say about drought improvement in Florida.

Granted it got so bad that it still has a long way to go, but overall it has improved greatly. Florida doesn't need tropical cyclones.

Being also a naturalist/outdoorsman along with being a weather lover, I have spent a lot of time in different parts of the State over the last few months. Much of Central and South Florida has definitely improved dramatically. Ground water still has a long way to go, but everything is headed the right way.


Not along the coast it hasn't. I can't even remember the last time I saw rain. It has rained in the interior sections, but not here, with the exception of a few days ago.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting o22sail:


I'm in Glen Allen and work in Northside. Northside looked like a war zone for weeks. It was pretty bad up here.
Nice to see another local!
Trey-


Cool! I live just south of Midlothian, between Hull St and Midlothian Tnpk.
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Quoting Levi32:


Unfortunately, no. Ex-Emily is already making her move northward just east of Florida and on out to sea.



hey levi is south florida going to get any rain from ex-emily?
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2719. It's still a wee bit dry up in these parts and in SE FL although it's been slowly improving over time.

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Quoting jeebsa:
Nice breeze here in Palm City.
Hello from Stuart.
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2752. Levi32
Quoting HurricanePookie:
Hi, longtime lurker here. Just wondering if there's any chance ex-Emily could slide our way in St. Pete?

We sure could use the rain.


Unfortunately, no. Ex-Emily is already making her move northward just east of Florida and on out to sea.
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2751. o22sail
Quoting tropicfreak:


I was also affected by Isabel, further inland in Richmond VA, but the damage was pretty bad here.


I'm in Glen Allen and work in Northside. Northside looked like a war zone for weeks. It was pretty bad up here.
Nice to see another local!
Trey-
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Quoting 7544:
how soon before recon will tell us what direction shes going
she's going? Emily is just a female name for a storm.Emily is not a human being.
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Hurricane Hunters are now over Sarasota,FL at 22,356 feet.

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Quoting sunlinepr:

Dry air over PR...it's a miracle!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
2741. Looks like PR and Hispaniola will get some dryness for a short while.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


It's the year for the East Coast.
Hey, I resemble that remark!  Don't need another Frances or Jeanne!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Camp Hansen Range Control in Okinawa recorded 32 inches of rain in 2 days from Muifa, before the observation site failed sometime yesterday.



The only other ob sites on that island listed on WU have no precip observations.

Kadena AFB is not on WU, but NOAA's international weather has it. http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/RODN.html
The 24 hour recap says 30 inches, but the rain started long before 17 UTC yesterday. According to another, private source, closer to 42 inches for Muifa's passage.

Believable, given the radar loop for Muifa's passage: Link

Some of that is undoubtedly orographically enhanced:



Freakin ridiculous amount of rain! It seems like tropical cyclones, and just the weather in general outputs bigger rainfall amounts in that part of world than over here.
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2743. Levi32
Waves are rollin'...one near the coast and one behind it, both well-defined and worth watching.

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Quoting atmoaggie:
Camp Hansen Range Control in Okinawa recorded 32 inches of rain in 2 days from Muifa, before the observation site failed sometime yesterday.



The only other ob sites on that island listed on WU have no precip observations.

Kadena AFB is not on WU, but NOAA's international weather has it. http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/RODN.html
The 24 hour recap says 30 inches, but the rain started long before 17 UTC yesterday according to radar. According to another, private source, closer to 42 inches, total, for Muifa's passage at Kadena.

Believable, given the radar loop for Muifa's passage: Link

Some of that is undoubtedly orographically enhanced:


That is staggering, the devastation there must be large in scale.
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Seems like the Hurricane Hunters have Dropped a Dropsonde into the East Gulf... Anyone know why?

"Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:31Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Splash Location: 27.86N 85.06W
Splash Time: 17:38Z

Release Location: 27.85N 85.05W
Release Time: 17:31:04Z

Splash Location: 27.86N 85.06W
Splash Time: 17:38:17Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 240° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)"
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Hi, longtime lurker here. Just wondering if there's any chance ex-Emily could slide our way in St. Pete?

We sure could use the rain.
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2738. jeebsa
Quoting Landfall2004:

Actually, we have a nice breeze here at the home of Frances and Jeanne and light clouds approaching from the SE.  It  is pretty pleasant outside--as opposed to yesterday when I broke into a sweat walking to my car!  
Nice breeze here in Palm City.
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Anyone have a Troll Hammer?


No, we only have the mildly effective insect repellent here... All other forms of troll warfare have been banned by the WGeneva Convention.
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2736. Patrap
: )
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Quoting Grothar:
Anyone is Southeast Florida must feel the oppressive heat and humidity right now. The lower clouds are moving rapidly SW and the upper clouds are moving NW. Beginning to get very cloudy over the ocean. Darker clouds can be seen way out. I've put the air-conditioner on the "hysterical" level and sitting here drinking my Mountain Dew and waiting. Just hope we get some rain from this.
Actually, we have a nice breeze here at the home of Frances and Jeanne and light clouds approaching from the SE.  It  is pretty pleasant outside--as opposed to yesterday when I broke into a sweat walking to my car!  
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Quoting Patrap:
Why folks quote idiocy,,is beyond me always.


I think I broke the button.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
2733. o22sail
Quoting tropicfreak:


Not with Emily though, this is 300 hrs out.


I follow you, were talking about the same thing.
:)
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Anyone have a Troll Hammer?

Yeah, it's called the ignore user button, removes them straight away.
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2731. Patrap
Ahh, Camp Hansen,,USMC 9th Engineers was my Home from Sept 82-83.

Typhoons Sugar Cane and rice,,Just like Louisiana.
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Judging by this Radar... the Center of Circulation is South of Grand Bahama island and heading NW or maybe WNW.

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Quoting positivenao:


yeah um in 2 weeks on this 12z GFS run, we have either franklin or gert making landfall in north carolina as a major hurricane. o_0
Woah look at that.

Anyway, that's two weeks out, so the actual storm its showing doesn't matter. However, what we can take away from this is that the GFS is heating up the wave train big time. Those near record warm SSTs over the MDR will be coming into play very soon.
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Quoting o22sail:


I couldn't help but notice that as well.
Don't need another Isabel passing over my house.


I was also affected by Isabel, further inland in Richmond VA, but the damage was pretty bad here.
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2727. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Camp Hansen Range Control in Okinawa recorded 32 inches of rain in 2 days from Muifa, before the observation site failed sometime yesterday.



The only other ob sites on that island listed on WU have no precip observations.

Kadena AFB is not on WU, but NOAA's international weather has it. http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/RODN.html
The 24 hour recap says 30 inches, but the rain started long before 17 UTC yesterday according to radar. According to another, private source, closer to 42 inches, total, for Muifa's passage at Kadena.

Believable, given the radar loop for Muifa's passage: Link

Some of that is undoubtedly orographically enhanced:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Why folks quote idiocy,,is beyond me always.


noted and changed sir!
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Would you go away please.


Anyone have a Troll Hammer?
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Funny thing is... If this does head west/northwest and makes a Landfall in Florida it would be more of an event than Bonnie..lol... even if its not even a tropical system.... The Solid Rain sheild is 3 times larger than Bonnie.
indeed it would be a very welcome deluge
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2721. Patrap
Why folks quote idiocy,,is beyond me always.

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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:



THAT
is some quality radar.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone is Southeast Florida must feel the oppressive heat and humidity right now. The lower clouds are moving rapidly SW and the upper clouds are moving NW. Beginning to get very cloudy over the ocean. Darker clouds can be seen way out. I've put the air-conditioner on the "hysterical" level and sitting here drinking my Mountain Dew and waiting. Just hope we get some rain from this.


You probably won't, biggest chance you'll get rain is when the deep westerly flow comes around when those remnants depart. Ive been getting heavy storms 7 days straigt and over 20 inches since the rain kicked in in late June. Who needs tropical cyclone/low pressure systems when our daily pattern generates plenty of rain.


Seriously, we don't want a tropical cyclone in Florida, the drought is improving off the daily storm pattern, people are acting like we are still in Mid June when everything was bad. If you don't believe me, go look at what NOAA has to say about drought improvement in Florida.

Granted it got so bad that it still has a long way to go, but overall it has improved greatly. Florida doesn't need tropical cyclones.

Being also a naturalist/outdoorsman along with being a weather lover, I have spent a lot of time in different parts of the State over the last few months. Much of Central and South Florida has definitely improved dramatically. Ground water still has a long way to go, but everything is headed the right way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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