Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting aspectre:
2750 prcane4you "she's going? Emily is just a female name for a storm.Emily is not a human being."

Sounds like someone's been peeking under Emily's burka.

:O
Emily would slap both of you if she could XD
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Latest IR imagery sure shows a lot of south and west growth/expansion.

IR Imagery
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Quoting GetReal:


IMO the models have been over estimating the weakness that was north of Emily mess. The Bermuda high appears to bridging west into the SE U.S.
I believe a lot here are being deceived by the cloud deck spreading West. When I look at visible and radar I do not see the West movement of the "center".
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Well crap, that didn't work.....
Quoting Goldenblack:
I am seeing the center more like about here:

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I am seeing the center more like about here:

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2750 prcane4you "she's going? Emily is just a female name for a storm.Emily is not a human being."

Sounds like someone's been peeking under Emily's burka.
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Quoting Landfall2004:

AHHH, but Central Fla. fills our aquifer!!!!!!


That is true! Some areas have had amazingly high amounts of rain over the last several weeks in Central Florida.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


You probably won't, biggest chance you'll get rain is when the deep westerly flow comes around when those remnants depart. Ive been getting heavy storms 7 days straigt and over 20 inches since the rain kicked in in late June. Who needs tropical cyclone/low pressure systems when our daily pattern generates plenty of rain.


Seriously, we don't want a tropical cyclone in Florida, the drought is improving off the daily storm pattern, people are acting like we are still in Mid June when everything was bad. If you don't believe me, go look at what NOAA has to say about drought improvement in Florida.

Granted it got so bad that it still has a long way to go, but overall it has improved greatly. Florida doesn't need tropical cyclones.

Being also a naturalist/outdoorsman along with being a weather lover, I have spent a lot of time in different parts of the State over the last few months. Much of Central and South Florida has definitely improved dramatically. Ground water still has a long way to go, but everything is headed the right way.
South Florida is still WELL BELOW normal amounts, despite the rain received in the first part of July. The latter half of July to present has been fairly dry here. I also believe the SFWMD open some of the gates as some of the canal levels I have seen here in PBC have been lowered since earlier on in the week.
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2810. GetReal


IMO the models have been over estimating the weakness that was north of Emily mess. The Bermuda high appears to bridging west into the SE U.S.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
here's the latest long range radar out of Miami, sure looks like some rotation going on there, hard to tell the center though.

NWS Long Range Radar
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Are you serious? Woah, well Ive been in much of South Florida and some places have had massive amounts of water replenished in wet lands that were cracked dry just 6 weeks ago. But I never did see how Southeast Florida Coast looked.


Its straight water logged at my house, Ive had more than 20 inches in 6 weeks.

Sadly, it seems like the heaviest rain has fallen in areas that didn't have much drought to begin with, like Central Florida. We did have a really bad short term drought though where it didn't rain more than an inches for more than 2 months.

Is so wet here anywhere there's an open field, including sports field, are marshy ponds now from getting heavy storms pretty much every day.
AHHH, but Central Fla. fills our aquifer!!!!!!
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Quoting Levi32:


Cloudy and 46 degrees F.
Levi, have you been out to murphy dome?
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Quoting Levi32:


But not along the west coast outside of the normal afternoon t-storm.


Right.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Not too long, this new wave is almost here... looks like we have a TWave highway lane over us...

Crap. Let's enjoy the sunshine while we can!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting Goldenblack:
I normally see the meteorological side of the equation, and I have looked at the CIMSS maps to see the weakness...but I too am confused, there is not as large a North movement at west at the moment. Whatever movement there is, is very slow.



Same... this system is such a pain in the neck...

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At least is isn't over 100 in Alaska, we'd really have problems then...

Quoting jeebsa:
Nice
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2801. Levi32
Quoting jeebsa:
Nice


It's a bit chilly....a reminder that winter is coming lol.
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Quoting Grothar:


Not along the coast it hasn't. I can't even remember the last time I saw rain. It has rained in the interior sections, but not here, with the exception of a few days ago.


Are you serious? Woah, well Ive been in much of South Florida and some places have had massive amounts of water replenished in wet lands that were cracked dry just 6 weeks ago. But I never did see how Southeast Florida Coast looked.


Its straight water logged at my house, Ive had more than 20 inches in 6 weeks.

Sadly, it seems like the heaviest rain has fallen in areas that didn't have much drought to begin with, like Central Florida. We did have a really bad short term drought though where it didn't rain more than an inches for more than 2 months.

Is so wet here anywhere there's an open field, including sports field, are marshy ponds now from getting heavy storms pretty much every day.
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2799. jeebsa
Quoting Levi32:


Cloudy and 46 degrees F.
Nice
Member Since: June 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 277
Quoting tropicalweather2011:
water temp over 88F WOW!!


Could that have something to do with why the HH was there (there appears to be a particularly warm patch off Sarasota)?
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I normally see the meteorological side of the equation, and I have looked at the CIMSS maps to see the weakness...but I too am confused, there is not as large a North movement at west at the moment. Whatever movement there is, is very slow.

Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


That loop shows that Emily is heading WNW or NW. Im so Confused...
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Didn't Hurricane Danny in 1997 drop 41" of rain in Dauphin Island?
That sounds about right.
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Quoting Landfall2004:

Hello from Stuart.


My great aunt used to live on Indian River on St. Lucie Blvd. We arrived in Stuart after a TS blew thru way back in 1969.
Hello Stu-artian !
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2793. Levi32
Quoting Progster:


Last few hours of imagery do indicate a western component to the circulation N of Andros...I would not be surprised to see some precip from this, this evening, near or N of Lauderdale.

Very impressive arc cloud well to the NE. Link

Caution...30 Mb loop.


But not along the west coast outside of the normal afternoon t-storm.
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2792. GetReal
MY best guess is that the COC is near 25.7N and 78.8W...
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
Quoting ElConando:


That is staggering, the devastation there must be large in scale.
I don't know about that. They did have wind gusts in the neighborhood of 100 mph and all of the rain...but I've seen nothing in the news.

Some damage inevitable.

Quoting Jedkins01:



Freakin ridiculous amount of rain! It seems like tropical cyclones, and just the weather in general outputs bigger rainfall amounts in that part of world than over here.

True. One simple reason is that the area of hot water without disruptive land enables more available moisture.
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2790. Levi32
Quoting jeebsa:
Levi, How is your weather up there?


Cloudy and 46 degrees F.
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Quoting Levi32:


Unfortunately, no. Ex-Emily is already making her move northward just east of Florida and on out to sea.


Last few hours of imagery do indicate a western component to the circulation N of Andros...I would not be surprised to see some precip from this, this evening, near or N of Lauderdale.

Very impressive arc cloud well to the NE. Link

Caution...30 Mb loop.
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Quoting Levi32:
Waves are rollin'...one near the coast and one behind it, both well-defined and worth watching.

Cape Verde season?
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Quoting jeebsa:
Good to see someone from Martin County on here. Hope we get some rain.
From the sounds of it, you guys should have gotten hammered at least twice this week.  We did over here.  Filled my rainbuckets that filled a 35 gal. trash can for 2 days of rain. No gutters-no rain barrels : (     
Need a cistern, like the olde days.
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2785. Levi32
Quoting HurricanePookie:
Drats.

Thanks, Levi!

Is it strong enough to pull moisture with it? I noticed that when some of the stronger Hurricanes passed us by for the east coast, or the panhandle, we got into an even drier pattern, like they'd taken our moisture with them.


That's a good observationn. In a sense that can be true. Weather is often very fair ahead of and behind hurricanes. When a storm leaves, a ridge often builds in behind it, drying out and stabilizing the atmosphere for a time.
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HH by Lake Okeechobee
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Those near West Palm may be able to see them, but it is unlikely due to the cloud cover, there is quite a build up everywhere in the State, according to satellite.

Quoting AussieStorm:

I meant visually see them.
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2781. jeebsa
Levi, How is your weather up there?
Member Since: June 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 277
I know the long range GFS is unreliable, but it has been consistant with many runs now a storm hitting the CONUS in 2 weeks. That has my attention to say the least. When I see the GFS make mulitiple runs like that it says something. It's that time of the year for the CONUS to be impacted by the tropics. It's been 2 years and counting, long overdue.
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Quoting GetReal:


That loop shows that Emily is heading WNW or NW. Im so Confused...
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2778. GetReal
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Dry air over PR...it's a miracle!
It's raining here in Santa Juanita Bayamon.By the way look the tw approaching the islands.
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OH, my bad....

:-(

Quoting AussieStorm:

I meant visually see them.
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Quoting StAugustineFL:
2719. It's still a wee bit dry up in these parts and in SE FL although it's been slowly improving over time.



Well for long term drought that's actually major improvement, keep in mind some areas had almost 30 inch rain deficit.

In deserts it only takes one big rain to sometimes erase a drought, because drought is lets say a 5 inches deficit. But in wet climates like Florida 20 inches seemed almost impossible a while back. But an amazing amount of drought has been erased considering how bad it was in Mid June.
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Quoting StAugustineFL:
2719. It's still a wee bit dry up in these parts and in SE FL although it's been slowly improving over time.

NICE SITE!!! THANX
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Quoting Levi32:


Maybe some showers, especially in the afternoon heat aided by the instability near ex-Emily, but if she's already making her NNW turn, then I wouldn't expect a whole lot.



ok thanks. I just got home yesterday and the grass is soooo brown just hoping for some rain
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Dry air over PR...it's a miracle!


Not too long, this new wave is almost here... looks like we have a TWave highway lane over us...
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Circulation center moving NW / NNW just passing over Abacos / NE tip of grand bahama. In a few
hours center should be N of Grand bahama.
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2769. jeebsa
Quoting Landfall2004:

Hello from Stuart.
Good to see someone from Martin County on here. Hope we get some rain.
Member Since: June 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 277

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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