Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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This is the best the 850mb vort and 500mb vort have looked all along. Still not perfectly stacked, but enough to strengthen some:

850mb:



500mb:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2867. Patrap
Quoting Grothar:
Ok, have a good laugh at this one. I haven't seen or heard a bird in more than 2 hours. The last ones I saw this morning were all flying North.


IS the Governor Visiting this afternoon ?

,,that could be da reason,maybe,,dunno.
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Quoting Grothar:
Ok, have a good laugh at this one. I haven't seen or heard a bird in more than 2 hours. The last ones I saw this morning were all flying North.
The crows are all over my yard!
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Might be the most organized Emily has ever been, structure wise.
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Quoting DSIjeff:
25.5, 78.5

Roughly that area is my peg for center.


26.5 78.3.....is my guess
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
thats exactly where i see the LLC


26.5 / 78.3 is my guess......north side of convection
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2862. Grothar
Ok, have a good laugh at this one. I haven't seen or heard a bird in more than 2 hours. The last ones I saw this morning were all flying North.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting DSIjeff:
25.5, 78.5

Roughly that area is my peg for center.

Seems about right.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
850 ,700 and 500mb vort's almost aligned now. 500 is still to the SW a little




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Quoting DSIjeff:
25.5, 78.5

Roughly that area is my peg for center.
thats exactly where i see the LLC
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18z SHIPS doesn't do a whole lot with exEmily Link

Up to 44kts at peak, and LGEM barely shows a TS.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
recon approaching Grand bahama island from the West


I am gonna bet thats where coc is.......I thin k the mid level is further south...(not stacked )
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

O_o


That was calculated at Okinawa Airport. 42.178in is mind blowing.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
2853. Skyepony (Mod)
Looking at the big picture the dry air diving down through PR & about to overtake Hispaniola, it's a strong driving force to what is giving alot of east to west flow over Florida.
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Quoting barotropic:


Everything is wrapping around what appears to be coc over grand bahama...moving NW.
looks are deceiving to me it looks like its still between Grand Bahama and andros, look at the radar and visible closely you will see what i mean
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Quoting TampaBayStevo:
here's the latest long range radar out of Miami, sure looks like some rotation going on there, hard to tell the center though.

NWS Long Range Radar


Everything is wrapping around what appears to be coc over grand bahama...moving NW.
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Quoting P451:
Afternoon.

We've gone RSO - towards the end of the loop - Ending 1745Z

the circulation looks to be elongated from SW to NE
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Happy Birthday Jamaica!
CRS
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Quoting AussieStorm:

After some investigation,
Okinawa had
08/03 0.51mm(0.020in)
08/04 118.1 mm(4.65in)
08/05 432.0 mm(17.01in)
08/06 520.7 mm(20.5in)
From 08/03 to 08/06 Okinawa had 1071.31mm(42.178in) of rain from Typhoon Muifa. WOW

O_o
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
recon approaching Grand bahama island from the West
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Good Afternoon. I scanned the loops this am and called my folks in Ft. Laud that they need not worry and it looked like it was staying over the Bahamas. My Mother just called saying I blew the forecast as rain moving in......:). Now I see the two and a depression may be forming and it does seem to moving towards Florida. They could use the rain and does not look like more than a rain event at this point......Actually welcome to cool things off.
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2842. Levi32
Quoting GetReal:
cimss literally just updated that layer map as I was posting it. It NOW appears that Emily should begin moving north... HOpefully soon to get rid of her.


This is why static steering maps and their vectors can't be taken as "written in stone" as it were. The field can still be manipulated as the storm moves through it, namely towards the weakness in the ridge which resulted in a more northerly motion than the steering flow would have suggested.
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2841. Skyepony (Mod)
Recon is descending.
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Oh HWRF, you just want Emily to hit Bermuda.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Bands are only about 50 miles offshore broward / Palm Beach counties.
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2837. beell
GFS showing another faint ridge disturbance moving along the gulf coast this coming week. Sooner or later one of these could give us something to talk about. This one may coincide with broad troughing over the eastern third of the US and get bumped offshore towards Florida instead of drying up and fading over eastern TX.

Here's the little conditional set-up valid this coming Wednesday morning off the west coast of FL-mired in some weak steering maybe:

08/06 GFS 700mb valid Wednesday 12Z

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2836. Levi32
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Levi, have you been out to murphy dome?


No. I haven't had much time this summer to go exploring such places, unfortunately.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

32 inches? Wow...That almost compares to TD# 19 in 1970 that caused 41 inches of rain in PR.

After some investigation,
Okinawa had
08/03 0.51mm(0.020in)
08/04 118.1 mm(4.65in)
08/05 432.0 mm(17.01in)
08/06 520.7 mm(20.5in)
From 08/03 to 08/06 Okinawa had 1071.31mm(42.178in) of rain from Typhoon Muifa. WOW
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Recon heading in.
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emily as u can easily see has a llc with some nice storms around it..to me it still looks like it has some west in its corse.now time to see how strong and north she gets without recurving east
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2832. GetReal
cimss literally just updated that layer map as I was posting it. It NOW appears that Emily should begin moving north... HOpefully soon to get rid of her.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
Time: 18:26:00Z
Coordinates: 26.9N 79.6667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 582.5 mb (~ 17.20 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 4,752 meters (~ 15,591 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1019.4 mb (~ 30.10 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 4° at 15 knots (From the N at ~ 17.2 mph)
Air Temp: 1.6°C (~ 34.9°F)
Dew Pt: -15.2°C (~ 4.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 16 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
(*) Denotes suspect data
---
already got north winds, very high pressure though...
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Sat loop from: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realt ime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL0 52011&starting_image=2011AL05_1KMSRVIS_20110806121 5.GIF Gives the impression it's moving more to the north. But it's not centered in the frame.
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looking at radar the Center looks to be South of grand bahama island west of the abacos and north of andros island. directly west of Ft lauderdale,fl
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I think from this point on Emily is going to be pretty similar to Bret in terms of intensity and track, only perhaps a little closer to Florida and a slightly faster curve out to sea.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
I believe a lot here are being deceived by the cloud deck spreading West. When I look at visible and radar I do not see the West movement of the "center".


Agree....its slow NW / NNW drift
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1745 UTC:

TAFB @ T1.5
SAB @ T1.0...however the Data T was at 2.5
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2825. Grothar
Quoting Jedkins01:


Are you serious? Woah, well Ive been in much of South Florida and some places have had massive amounts of water replenished in wet lands that were cracked dry just 6 weeks ago. But I never did see how Southeast Florida Coast looked.


Its straight water logged at my house, Ive had more than 20 inches in 6 weeks.

Sadly, it seems like the heaviest rain has fallen in areas that didn't have much drought to begin with, like Central Florida. We did have a really bad short term drought though where it didn't rain more than an inches for more than 2 months.

Is so wet here anywhere there's an open field, including sports field, are marshy ponds now from getting heavy storms pretty much every day.


I am very serious. This was posted before, but here it is again. The Southeast coastal region is, as you know, where the majority of the population lives. We are still in red. It has been awful. All jokes aside, I have been around a long time and I do not remember anthing this bad.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
2824. Patrap
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Looks to me on satellite that Emily is at least pretty close to being reanimated, if not there already. Interesting to see what recon finds. Not too far away now.
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Quoting GetReal:


IMO the models have been over estimating the weakness that was north of Emily mess. The Bermuda high appears to bridging west into the SE U.S.


I dont know if you are marking the center with the line or the red pin....but it appears to me the center is just south of and over the ne portion of grand bahama, abacos. its is mving very slow generally NW. It can be seen pretty clear out of miami radar LONG RANGE on tpc site
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Quoting hunkerdown:
South Florida is still WELL BELOW normal amounts, despite the rain received in the first part of July. The latter half of July to present has been fairly dry here. I also believe the SFWMD open some of the gates as some of the canal levels I have seen here in PBC have been lowered since earlier on in the week.
OH YES--they do it in the name of "flood control."  Such a joke!  The SFWMismngmtD sends our precious water out to sea--instead of us finding a way to store it or pump it out the wetlands.
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Quoting aspectre:
2750 prcane4you "she's going? Emily is just a female name for a storm.Emily is not a human being."

Sounds like someone's been peeking under Emily's burka.

:O
Emily would slap both of you if she could XD
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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